Malaya What If
- Thread starter Fatboy Coxy
- Start date
Derek Pullem
Donor
As you were replying to Ramp-Rat I understood we were talking about post war events.
This is so interesting. Will Operation Matador be at least partially effective without costing the British ruinous casualties? So much depends on the air war which will not be a cakewalk. And just how would it play out to the American press and the public perception of "British aggression"? Of course the American press will have only 2 or 3 days to complain about the "unprovoked British attack". Naturally Churchill is sweating it out as he doesn't know that the Japanese will shortly resolve his concerns about the American reaction.
Even so, Thailand and Pearl Harbour are in different timezones cq days. This fact alone could be an fudge factor for the American Public. Pearl Harbour would be the place and time most of media / public would be focused on. Events in other countries would be reported on in detail some weeks after the facts happend.
Driftless
Donor
I'd guess most of the news releases coming out of Matador would be from Commonwealth sources, maybe Vichy French? So, there would be some lag in those reports showing in the US (outside of the White House of course). By the time they're common news, Pearl Harbor et alia would be dominating US air waves. If anything, in that environment, might there be some US homefront recrimination along the lines of: "How come the Limey's know the Japanese were coming, and we didn't?"
That era didn't have instant news reported worldwide on social media. At best, early announcements would be text sent via cable. Pictures to follow weeks later.
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Yep
And the British reacting quickly to a threatened invasion can be contrasted to the non reaction of MacArthur
Evil grin 😁
A TL where MacArthur comes off looking worse, Oh no!
iOTL where Manila falls and SIngapore falls, there are feelings that he did all he could. In this TL, it looks like MacArthur is inferior to whatever British General holds Singapore. However, as far as I can tell, a SI as FDR in 1936 or an IJN admiral who was a perfect spy (or both) would be about what it would take for Manila to not fall.
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Yes, but the y. will understand that, although both forces recived warnings. A military force at peace, will react slower than an military force that been fighting for 3 years alreadyA TL where MacArthur comes off looking worse, Oh no!
Actually the British acting early may force MacArthur to a greater urgency sooner and force him to face the actual fact that war was coming ahead of his schedule. On the day of the attack according to unconfirmed sources he was essentially in shock since he believed they would not dare attack before he was ready.
Even so, as far as I can tell, even at the most ready, the United States did not expect the Philippines to survive a Japanese attack without surrendering.
One of the differences is that the British are essentially defending a Naval Base with a city attached to it, as opposed to Manila, which at best, can be defined as a City with a Naval Base attached to it.
(And then there is Honolulu which is a Naval Base with a city attached to it, with everywhere you can possibly land to attack it within range of fighters. (Hmm. Which is closer to requiring ASB, Manila not falling or Honolulu falling)
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Warning
The notion that Churchill knew in advance but let it happen so America would enter the war and thus ensure an Allied victory has been floated around before, and in all honesty I would not put such a scheme past him because it strikes me as entirely in keeping with his Machiavellian nature. Personally I think that Roosevelt would be pragmatic enough to quash any such mutterings on his home front of British advance knowledge (even if there is any substance to it), at least until the Axis are beaten.
Errolwi
Monthly Donor
Didn't the USN operate on Hawaii time in the Pacific? Which got confusing for e.g. the Aussies.
With Singapore getting the authority to decide late afternoon on the 6th, the earliest reports could possibly come out of Thailand would be the 7th. So easily conflated with Pearl.
I agree just wondering if MacArthur seeing the British acting might have him react a little differently and for that matter might have Kimmel and Short extend their alert through the weekend. Not saying they will find the fleet but A/A guns may be manned for the Navy and whatever changes that would make for the Army. Doesn't stop the bulk of the attack but may cause more losses of attacking planes and even maybe save the Arizona from the major hit with more A/A going initially which could alter the drop.
This is quite probably what will happen ; America will be hit with the news of Pearl Harbor on afternoon and early evening of 7 December, then 12 to 24 hours later will come in the news reports of Japanese British conflict in Malaya and Thailand and the Japanese attack on the Philippines datelined Singapore, and Manila, 8 December. reporting fighting on 7 December. 90% of the American public will not make the dateline connection for days if at all.
To save the P.I. you need the Philippines excluded from the Washington and London Naval Treaties that forbid new defenses in the Pacific. It will also require a political treaty between the U.S. an the Philippines giving the U.S. long term bases in return for protecting the Philippines. You need more air bases and the Navy needed fuel and maintainence stations on Panay Cebu and Mindanao, as well as a larger better trained equipped garrison of U.S. Army and Philippine Scouts.A TL where MacArthur comes off looking worse, Oh no!
iOTL where Manila falls and SIngapore falls, there are feelings that he did all he could. In this TL, it looks like MacArthur is inferior to whatever British General holds Singapore. However, as far as I can tell, a SI as FDR in 1936 or an IJN admiral who was a perfect spy (or both) would be about what it would take for Manila to not fall.
Adm. Hart CinC Asiatic Fleet was ready, he has been planning on a war sooner rather then later, He was in the process of moving his fleet Train south so all his service eggs were not in one basket. He was hamstrung because he could not patrol NW of the Philippines because MacArthur considered that army search and patrol territory. With hostilities kicking off earlier Hart will most likely send out his subs a day sooner, though the last squadron had barely finished refitting from the voyage from Pearl. In fact 3 will still in dock for repairs.
One thing people forget that not all of Hart's submarines are going on patrol in the South China sea. A number have to transit through the islands or South of Mindanao to patrol against Japanese attacks from the Mandates.
On interesting thought if Hart's subs move south sooner, perhaps one will be in position to attack the carrier Ryujo when she strikes Davo and the seaplane base in Davo Bay.
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Fatboy Coxy
Monthly Donor
Hi Jlckansas, that's a very good point you make about the general populations understanding of time zones, and that would be true in Britain too, unless the papers editor points it out.
Fatboy Coxy
Monthly Donor
Hi Driftless, there were American reporters in Singapore, see https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/malaya-what-if.521982/post-24015152. Cecil Brown was on HMS Repulse when Force Z sortied out to meet the Japanese. So I'd expect war correspondents to be 'imbedded' (I think the term was coined for the Gulf War) with any advancing troops conducting Operation Matador. The British censors may be able to delay for a few days, but that would be all, and Brown and his colleagues would be busting a gut to get this news out to the USA, a major scoop! Photos would be wired over. Of course if Matador was to happen, the news worthiness would be akin to that of the capture of Rome, the D-Day landings quickly completely overshadowing it, just as Pearl Harbor would on any Matador news.