The Second Republic itself must avoid Louis Napoleon and survive for that to happen, though.
Miscellaneous <1900 (Alternate) History Thread
- Thread starter RMcD94
- Start date
I was just thinking, for an alternate TL-191 that is more similar to OTL, where the USA ends up as a weaker Confederate ally (a la Austria-Hungary), who else could play the role of the Soviets to the Confederacy's Nazis, complete with a variant of communism emerging in TTL's version of the USSR?
Of course, the PoD would be the Battle of Antietam being a Confederate victory. I can see the Confederacy as Germany, the United States as Austria-Hungary and Mitteleuropa (essentially a fusion of OTL's German and Austro-Hungarian Empires) as America, but that's all I can figure out for now. I can't think of who else could play the roles of Imperial Japan, fascist Italy, the British Empire and most of all the Soviet Union.
Of course, the PoD would be the Battle of Antietam being a Confederate victory. I can see the Confederacy as Germany, the United States as Austria-Hungary and Mitteleuropa (essentially a fusion of OTL's German and Austro-Hungarian Empires) as America, but that's all I can figure out for now. I can't think of who else could play the roles of Imperial Japan, fascist Italy, the British Empire and most of all the Soviet Union.
Cannot happen though. The US had three times more population and 9 times more industry in 1860, and that gap would have only accelerated during the rest of the 19th century.
In Turtledove's first Southern Victory book How Few Remain, the USA lost two wars to the CSA before the Great War occurred, thanks to British and French intervention on behalf of the Confederacy. The Confederacy would have lost the second war (in the 1882 of TL-191) had it gone up against the USA on its own, but the British in Canada and the French (based out of a Mexico that was pro-French) screwed over the US until President Blaine had no choice but to wave the white flag.
In my alternate TL-191 scenario, things could worsen if pro-Union hardliners in the North launched a coup to topple Lincoln from power, or more likely some pissed-off war veteran assassinated Lincoln for failing to win the Civil War. This could lead to a downward spiral of coups and assassinations as public faith in the US government is weakened. Coupled with the possibility of the Confederacy achieving victory over another rival power in the Americas (like say Mexico over the provinces of Chihuahua and Sonora so the Confederacy can gain access to the Pacific), Richmond getting British and French support (and the eventual abolishment of slavery in the CSA like what happened in the canon TL-191) to ward off US revanchism and another failed war against the CSA by the United States could be the final straw for Philadelphia. Look what happened with Austria-Hungary after they lost the Austro-Prussian War. They ended up in the orbit of the stronger German Empire despite being larger and richer in resources. Sure, the CSA would still have an underdeveloped industrial base compared to the North, but British and French financial support (especially after the abolishment of slavery) to the CSA so that Richmond could keep the USA in check could narrow the gap by a significant margin.
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1) I have to say that, a coup against Lincoln is not going to happen since the tradition of democracy (even stronger than in the South) and civil control over military had been firmly established in the US. As for assassination, the US shrugged off (successful) assassinations multiple times historically. In the long run, US politics without the Southern bloc is going to be more stable, not less.
2) Prussia already surpassed Austria by 1866, in terms of industrial capacity and experience much stronger growth. Plus, the gap between Austria and Prussia was not as huge as Union versus Confederacy. The Union-Confederacy gap is closer to WW2 US-Japan gap than Austria-Prussia. Look, let me remind you that, the entire Confederacy had a smaller industrial base than *Massachusetts* in 1860 - this is the huge gap that I am talking about.
3) British and French support for the Confederacy would not prevent the US from growing more powerful over time. Plus, French support would totally depend Napoleon III’s position in France - forget about it if France becomes a republic led by the (pro-Union) Republicans. Alternatively, the CSA should forget about French support if it invaded Mexico under Maximilian.
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Say there's no Hapsburg Spain but OTL's colonial conquests go more or less as OTL. Is there a scenario where the Spanish pursue an imperial title through their claim of being the Sapa Inca? OTL the Spanish attached the title of Sapa Inca to the titles of Phillip II but there was no real need for it's aggrandization seeing as they were simultaneously the Emperor of the Romans. Europeans really only started scrambling for imperial titles after Napoleon with the declaration of the Austrian Empire and the titular uplifting of the British Raj to give the British monarch the title 'Empress of India' IIRC. What would it take for the Spanish to put a lot of pressure on the Papacy to essentially uplift their assortment of crowns with an imperial title through succession as the Sapa Inca? And would the provided scenario result in a shift in strategy in colonial matters?
Off the top of my head, this might change how the Viceroyalty of Peru evolves and its borders are defined if nothing else. The need to validate the grandeur of the tile could result in more Inca political structures being preserved as well
Off the top of my head, this might change how the Viceroyalty of Peru evolves and its borders are defined if nothing else. The need to validate the grandeur of the tile could result in more Inca political structures being preserved as well
A democracy? Maybe, but an authoritarian one more likely. I would view the USA as becoming more like a less extreme Apartheid South Africa.
You're right, the Confederacy would lose French support if it attacked the Second Mexican Empire. More likely they would just beat the shit out of Spain just to gain access to Cuba. Nobody cared much about Spain in TL-191 anyway. And turn Nicaragua into a protectorate for good measure so that they can build their Nicaragua Canal. Maybe Richmond could even get into a scuffle with the Japanese over the Sandwich Islands (provided the British have their hands full in Canada to ward off a more aggressive USA) and spark a Confederate-Japanese Great Game in the Pacific.
Or alternatively, as opposed to the USA weakening, when the CSA ends up buying Sonora and Chihuahua from the Mexicans with the blessing of the French (this actually happened in canon TL-191), the Mexicans of Baja California, resenting Mexican weakness, form a breakaway Restored Republic of Mexico in Baja California, only for the USA to intervene and annex Baja California shortly after (the Confederacy didn't want to test the limits of French-CSA friendship so they remained neutral), drawing plenty of ire from the international community. Ironically enough, the USA doesn't weaken so much as it becomes more and more like the Confederacy, what with many in the Union still blaming the black population for the disastrous American Civil War, and says, "Eh, f*** it" and allies with the CSA because the Confederacy was one of the few nations that recognised the Union's control over Baja California (the CSA wanted the North to recognise Sonora and Chihuahua as legitimate Confederate territory in exchange for recognising Baja California as legitimate Union territory). Moreover, both sides would rather not fight each other with the growing Japanese threat in the neighbouring Kingdom of Hawaii (which is now a Japanese protectorate), especially considering Japan's opportunistic annexation of the Galapagos while a revanchist Second Republic of Gran Colombia was busy re-conquering Ecuador. That, coupled with the French gradually reducing their commitments to Mexico thanks to mounting tensions with an increasingly powerful Kingdom of Italy right next door, would likely cause revanchism to flourish in Mexico and the Second Mexican Empire could turn to another power, like say the Empire of Brazil (the Brazilian monarchy was never abolished ITTL) or the Japanese Empire, as both would be increasingly at odds with the CSA due to Richmond becoming a bit too big for its britches.
In TL-191, the British and French didn't just give token support to the CSA for the war in 1882; they attacked the US directly via Canada and Mexico. British troops even raided the San Francisco Mint for goodness' sake. Who is to say they wouldn't do so here provided the CSA doesn't burn its bridges with them just like TL-191?
Oh, and here is the inspiration for my idea. One key difference is that it is not going to be Britain + France that goes communist ITTL. I'm kinda leaning towards Brazil or Japan for TTL's USSR.
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Initially, I thought they might considering just how powerful and wealthy a non-Habsburg Spanish Empire would be, but on second thought, probably not IMO. There is a reason that no other monarch claimed the title of Emperor other than the Holy Roman Emperor himself until Napoleon. The title was taken very seriously as the title of the legitimate heir to Rome, and thus to the ruler of all Christendom, that's why the descendants of Philip II never took an imperial title themselves even if their cousins had it.
The alt-Spaniards would not want an imperial title for a couple of reasons. One, doing so would piss off everybody in Europe, including the Habsburgs who would see it as a challenge to the Crown of the HRE and France because she wouldn't want to be one-upped by those damn Spaniards. Two, the Pope probably wouldn't give it to them. Three, the Spanish as notoriously devout Catholics would not want it and would probably object to their monarch taking an Imperial title.