What's the REAL reason Polynesians didn't colonise Australia?

My sense is that, even though the Polynesians did manage glancing contacts with South America that plausibly did transfer agricultural goods like the sweet potato, Polynesia and South America were each short of the requirements needed to sustain regular trade. Perhaps if they had a few centuries? Failing that, you would need some prior changes, like a much more dynamic Peru or accelerated Polynesian settlement of eastern Polynesia.
 
What about the Inca Empire? There is a historical theory that the Inca Empire actually sent out ships to travel the Pacific Sea, maybe reaching as far as Mangreva and Easter Island. If Polynesians maybe settle on the Galápagos Islands, and start trading with the Native American South Americans, and if the Inca empire still exists, then maybe Native American traders from the Inca Empire could bring crops to the Polynesians, which would boost their population and make settling Australia more attractive to the Polynesian chiefdoms.
 
What about the Inca Empire? There is a historical theory that the Inca Empire actually sent out ships to travel the Pacific Sea, maybe reaching as far as Mangreva and Easter Island. If Polynesians maybe settle on the Galápagos Islands, and start trading with the Native American South Americans, and if the Inca empire still exists, then maybe Native American traders from the Inca Empire could bring crops to the Polynesians, which would boost their population and make settling Australia more attractive to the Polynesian chiefdoms.

If there was an Incan maritime tradition, then yes, this might easily have led to more exchanges between South America and Polynesia. Much depends on when this was activated, and how.
 
Balsa rafts cannot navigate the Pacific and did not navigate the Pacific. Abel Tasman noted when he made contact with the early Maori that their waka had sails. Eastern Polynesians were far better sailors than any pre-contact South American culture. Balsa rafts are a massive step back in technology compared to what Polynesians had considering they successfully reached South America themselves. Any contact with South America would be from West to East, not East to West as it was so IRL.

Thor Heyerdahl's expedition was an exercise in luck and stupidity considering you cannot float a Balsa raft to Hawaii, New Zealand, or Rapa Nui. The ocean currents physically stop such a thing from ever occurring. That it also took 109 days while fully provisioned for such a thing would have killed any would-be explorers from South America using such rafts considering they didn't know land was there and would have to have been very lucky to have provisioned themselves for such a voyage.
An important point is that while Heyerdal showed it was possible to sail a raft to Polynesia, he didn't show it was possible to get back.
Given that they had a fair bit of luck to get there at all - heavy rain when about to run out of water, flying fish landing on the deck, happening to arrive at land in a very empty ocean - and they knew where they were going, that's nowhere near enough to indicate that colonisation was even remotely possible. Rather, it shows that it wasn't, even if chance cross cultural influences could have happened.
However the book is a great read, although even in the late 1990s, it felt like it was from a very different age.
 
If there was an Incan maritime tradition, then yes, this might easily have led to more exchanges between South America and Polynesia. Much depends on when this was activated, and how.
There was a maritime tradition in various tributary tribes of the Incas, at least close to shore fishing.
One possibility when the I’ll nino weather effects limited maritime fertility off South America maybe locals develop better sailing tech to get food???
Or maybe a Genghis khan try or guy comes up and conquers far enough north that exchanges of tech and crops could take place at a quicker rate
 
If there was an Incan maritime tradition, then yes, this might easily have led to more exchanges between South America and Polynesia. Much depends on when this was activated, and how.
In OTL, IIRC, the Pre Colombian South American Native Americans maintained quite good naval and marine technology. (According to Wikipedia, at least). Therefore, with improved naval technology, it could be possible for the Inca Empire to maintain more of a naval fleet which discovers the Polynesians and trades with them.
 
An important point is that while Heyerdal showed it was possible to sail a raft to Polynesia, he didn't show it was possible to get back.
Given that they had a fair bit of luck to get there at all - heavy rain when about to run out of water, flying fish landing on the deck, happening to arrive at land in a very empty ocean - and they knew where they were going, that's nowhere near enough to indicate that colonisation was even remotely possible. Rather, it shows that it wasn't, even if chance cross cultural influences could have happened.
However the book is a great read, although even in the late 1990s, it felt like it was from a very different age.
Didn’t a Spanish explorer from 1966 to 1973 demonstrate that Native American ships could travel as far as Australia? Granted, on the third expedition, after the second one that proved Native Americans could theoretically travel to Australia, the ships near Tonga suffered a violent storm, but still not before viewing the Cook Islands, and the Society Islands, further demonstrating that it was theoretically possible for Native American seafarers to reach Polynesia.
 
In OTL, IIRC, the Pre Colombian South American Native Americans maintained quite good naval and marine technology. (According to Wikipedia, at least). Therefore, with improved naval technology, it could be possible for the Inca Empire to maintain more of a naval fleet which discovers the Polynesians and trades with them.
Polynesia made contact with South America well before the Inca empire existed. Two centuries earlier give or take a couple of decades based on the proliferation of kumara (genus of sweet potato) across the heart of Polynesia. A larger naval fleet and improved ship making does not give the Inca hundreds of years of navigational expertise. Incans won’t go anywhere near Tahiti without Polynesian advice.
 
Polynesia made contact with South America well before the Inca empire existed. Two centuries earlier give or take a couple of decades based on the proliferation of kumara (genus of sweet potato) across the heart of Polynesia. A larger naval fleet and improved ship making does not give the Inca hundreds of years of navigational expertise. Incans won’t go anywhere near Tahiti without Polynesian advice.
What I am talking about is Pre Inca Pre Colombian Native American civilizations on the coast of South America inventing better marine technology (like the outrigger canoe) which spreads rapidly. That way by the time Polynesians come about, Native American South Americans have sea experience of their own.
 
Polynesia made contact with South America well before the Inca empire existed. Two centuries earlier give or take a couple of decades based on the proliferation of kumara (genus of sweet potato) across the heart of Polynesia. A larger naval fleet and improved ship making does not give the Inca hundreds of years of navigational expertise. Incans won’t go anywhere near Tahiti without Polynesian advice.
They were multi racial and flexible…
If you were a local king and some strange guys sailed up with cool stuff and ideas crops etc possibly if the trade goes on over centuries rather than just a few chance encounters the entire caboddle could go both ways. Not just sweet potato as in OTL.
New Zealand was marginal for the standard package but when sweet potato arrived the Polynesians made good colonised both islands.
Easter island with more food and possibly a trade in wood in return for crazy skilled stone carvers might not have to crash and eat each other when the food runs out….
Imagine around 1300 or so a balsa wood cargo boat washes up in what might become otl mid California with a cargo of Llamas, potato’s and maize onboard as well as a one guy with a cough and a runny nose……
 
They were multi racial and flexible…
If you were a local king and some strange guys sailed up with cool stuff and ideas crops etc possibly if the trade goes on over centuries rather than just a few chance encounters the entire caboddle could go both ways. Not just sweet potato as in OTL.
New Zealand was marginal for the standard package but when sweet potato arrived the Polynesians made good colonised both islands.
Easter island with more food and possibly a trade in wood in return for crazy skilled stone carvers might not have to crash and eat each other when the food runs out….
Imagine around 1300 or so a balsa wood cargo boat washes up in what might become otl mid California with a cargo of Llamas, potato’s and maize onboard as well as a one guy with a cough and a runny nose……
This is what I am talking about. More contact with South America could bring in crops from Native American South Americans, and thus give the population boost needed to allow Polynesians to colonize Australia.
 
They were multi racial and flexible…
If you were a local king and some strange guys sailed up with cool stuff and ideas crops etc possibly if the trade goes on over centuries rather than just a few chance encounters the entire caboddle could go both ways. Not just sweet potato as in OTL.
New Zealand was marginal for the standard package but when sweet potato arrived the Polynesians made good colonised both islands.
Easter island with more food and possibly a trade in wood in return for crazy skilled stone carvers might not have to crash and eat each other when the food runs out….
That describes most instances of cross-cultural contact.
Imagine around 1300 or so a balsa wood cargo boat washes up in what might become otl mid California with a cargo of Llamas, potato’s and maize onboard as well as a one guy with a cough and a runny nose……
The emaciated llamas are promptly slaughtered or left to starve, the strange plants ignored (or consumed at once if its a famine), and the sick guy spreads an epidemic to a few villages that kills maybe 10-20% of people before burning out since California has low population density. It's a lot longer and harder of a process to introduce new crops. Or diseases for that matter--few diseases can last long sea voyages (hence why epidemics decimated Polynesia OTL), those that can are generally weak, and in an area with low population density the epidemic burns itself out and confers no population-wide herd immunity since the next generation won't contract it.

Also the winds and currents all blow the wrong direction from South America to California (part of the reason why tropical storms are so rare in California). That's among the reasons why the "Chumash borrowed their canoes from Polynesians" theory is bunk.
 
That describes most instances of cross-cultural contact.

The emaciated llamas are promptly slaughtered or left to starve, the strange plants ignored (or consumed at once if its a famine), and the sick guy spreads an epidemic to a few villages that kills maybe 10-20% of people before burning out since California has low population density. It's a lot longer and harder of a process to introduce new crops. Or diseases for that matter--few diseases can last long sea voyages (hence why epidemics decimated Polynesia OTL), those that can are generally weak, and in an area with low population density the epidemic burns itself out and confers no population-wide herd immunity since the next generation won't contract it.

Also the winds and currents all blow the wrong direction from South America to California (part of the reason why tropical storms are so rare in California). That's among the reasons why the "Chumash borrowed their canoes from Polynesians" theory is bunk.
Good point about cross cultural contact. And could the ship which carried maize, potatoes, and llamas crash into Mesoamerica instead of California? I suspect Mesoamerica would find greater uses for llamas and potatoes than California.
 
Good point about cross cultural contact. And could the ship which carried maize, potatoes, and llamas crash into Mesoamerica instead of California? I suspect Mesoamerica would find greater uses for llamas and potatoes than California.
Not necessarily. The people of the Pacific coast of Mesoamerica already had a successful way of life, after all. And a lot of the coast is mountainous with few safe places to anchor. Would someone really imagine a strange, half-starved animal would be worth presenting to someone important like a prestigious pochteca or the court of their local lord? But it is vaguely possible that might work, and said lord might want to see those traders back with more tribute and another llama or two for his menagerie.

I find potatoes harder to justify introducing to Mesoamerica than llamas, actually. It can only come about because of more trade. OTL, the first potatoes in Mesoamerica seem to be in the 1530s i.e. very soon after the Spanish conquests.
 
Not necessarily. The people of the Pacific coast of Mesoamerica already had a successful way of life, after all. And a lot of the coast is mountainous with few safe places to anchor. Would someone really imagine a strange, half-starved animal would be worth presenting to someone important like a prestigious pochteca or the court of their local lord? But it is vaguely possible that might work, and said lord might want to see those traders back with more tribute and another llama or two for his menagerie.

I find potatoes harder to justify introducing to Mesoamerica than llamas, actually. It can only come about because of more trade. OTL, the first potatoes in Mesoamerica seem to be in the 1530s i.e. very soon after the Spanish conquests.
Given how metallurgy in Mesoamerica likely started around 800 AD because Native American merchants from Ecuador introduced metallurgy to Mesoamerica, it could be that Llamas and potatoes are introduced deliberately, not accidentally.
 
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