Better? Sure but hardly enough to sustain something like the GAW included reconstruction, return to peacetime economy and the pension of the soldiers; modern warfare make you rich only if you have an ocean of distance between you and the fight, arrive late and you are also the main supplier of everyone else.
Not considering that paying back the bonds plus interest will be a severe strain for the american treasury as it was for everyone else post WWI in the delicate and periolious moment of passage from wat to peace time economy, so if they have not started to borrow before they will do now
In 1910 IOTL, including the deeply poor South, American median worker incomes were ~50-70% higher than British, double German, and god only knows how much higher than Italian. I’m not saying the war has made the US rich, I’m saying that the American populace was already much richer at the median than anywhere in Europe.

Given the thin market for overseas sovereign debt in this era, the US would almost certainly be leaning on its own citizenry for borrowing, aided by rationing and consumer goods shortages that would leave extra money lying about for war bonds to sop up.
 
In 1910 IOTL, including the deeply poor South, American median worker incomes were ~50-70% higher than British, double German, and god only knows how much higher than Italian. I’m not saying the war has made the US rich, I’m saying that the American populace was already much richer at the median than anywhere in Europe.

Given the thin market for overseas sovereign debt in this era, the US would almost certainly be leaning on its own citizenry for borrowing, aided by rationing and consumer goods shortages that would leave extra money lying about for war bonds to sop up.
There will be not a lot of extra money, inflation and the black market fueled by scarcity will make it that way and while statistically richer than an european well this is a land modern war fought in your territory, the conflict and the aftermath just in monetary term will be beyond absurd level basically nope they don't have enough money to fully finance internally the warbonds and the interest. The USA will be forced to do as the OTL entente had done aka asking loan on foreign market using collateral and not for a trivial amount of money
 
There will be not a lot of extra money, inflation and the black market fueled by scarcity will make it that way and while statistically richer than an european well this is a land modern war fought in your territory, the conflict and the aftermath just in monetary term will be beyond absurd level basically nope they don't have enough money to fully finance internally the warbonds and the interest. The USA will be forced to do as the OTL entente had done aka asking loan on foreign market using collateral and not for a trivial amount of money
Disagree, basically completely, as I said.

EDIT: to elaborate…

1. The US isn’t “statistically richer,” it’s “virtually twice as wealthy on a per capita basis as any European nation except Britain and with a better income distribution than any of them to boot.”

2. The US of the era was a cohesive and high-trust society which was able to raise massive amounts of debt financing from its own citizenry in both world wars. Our rationing system worked leaps and bounds better than those of anyone except Britain both times, and neither war saw significant black marketeering.

3. The only actual devastation on US soil was in Maryland. While important, Baltimore was IOTL the 7th largest city and perhaps 10th largest industrial center in the Union. We are not talking about France in WWI or the Soviets in WWII.

4. Britain and France were, IOTL, only able to go into debt because they had substantial foreign assets that could act as collateral for foreign debt holders. The US has nothing like this in this era, except perhaps some holdings in Canada and scattered assets throughout Latin America, only the former of which are under a jurisdiction that Britain trusts to help collect debts. Sovereign debt markets as we understand them barely existed outside domestic bond issuance and there wasn’t a lot of that.
 
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Disagree, basically completely, as I said.

EDIT: to elaborate…

1. The US isn’t “statistically richer,” it’s “virtually twice as wealthy on a per capita basis as any European nation except Britain and with a better income distribution than any of them to boot.”

2. The US of the era was a cohesive and high-trust society which was able to raise massive amounts of debt financing from its own citizenry in both world wars. Our rationing system worked leaps and bounds better than those of anyone except Britain both times, and neither war saw significant black marketeering.

3. The only actual devastation on US soil was in Maryland. While important, Baltimore was IOTL the 7th largest city and perhaps 10th largest industrial center in the Union. We are not talking about France in WWI or the Soviets in WWII.

4. Britain and France were, IOTL, only able to go into debt because they had substantial foreign assets that could act as collateral for foreign debt holders. The US has nothing like this in this era, except perhaps some holdings in Canada and scattered assets throughout Latin America, only the former of which are under a jurisdiction that Britain trusts to help collect debts. Sovereign debt markets as we understand them barely existed outside domestic bond issuance and there wasn’t a lot of that.
As always, I admire and appreciate the thoroughness of your responses, particularly around economic matters.
 
i was looking through Vol 1 and it seems that Curtain Jerker's well known antipathy for the Libs began around the late 1890s TTL when they won their third election in a row following Hay's assassination and the Populists acting as a splinter party to the left.
Missed the last few days of updates/posts. I got radicalized during the Hay Administration yes, both at Hay's in-universe and out-of-universe portrayal in the prior thread. Plus, not to get too meta, I work at a job where this website is NOT blocked by IT, so I spent a lot of time here reading and re-reading TLs, and Cinco de Mayo is an incredible piece of work so it was (and is) a joy to read and re-read. Makes it easy to dig deep into the world here.
.......ok. That's an odd thing to look for and suddenly point out.
lol.
That sounds right, but I agree with @Darth_Kiryan haha
🤷‍♂️ 🤷‍♂️ I am consistently flattered that people are interested in what I have to say though.

[2] My loose shorthand has always been that Russia is about 12-15 years behind its OTL pace economically thanks to losing the Russo-Turkish War of 1877 and not getting all that sweet, sweet French money in the 1890s and British funding starting post-1907. So in other words, Russia in 1917 is somewhere around where the OTL Tsarist Russia was in around 1902-05ish. That "time gap" will start to narrow a bit in the 1920s as its economy supplies Europe during the CEW and, of course, the destruction of WWI and the RCW don't gut Russia entirely.
Turns out that not fighting and losing the most destructive war the world had ever seen to that point followed by a horrific civil war will be only a good thing for a country. Who knew? On a more serious note, I am interested to see how democracy develops - or doesn't develop - in Russia going forward.

I agree more with @Aged_Urbanist on the economic matters raised upthread. My question to @KingSweden24 is "Do you have a post in the pipeline outlining exactly how Mellon's deflationary policies are hurting the country and the political response?" We've danced a lot around Mellon's deleterious influence on the country without getting into exactly how his fiscal policies (don't) work.
 
Socialism and Europe
"...that a mining and agriculture economy like Chile's would be the first to genuinely install a revolutionary proletarian socialism when the time came in late 1924 would have shocked European Marxists, but perhaps it should not have; for all the many issues that the Socialist Party of Chile faced, it had a clear charismatic and intellectual leader in Luis Emilio Recabarren, created internal space for disagreements to be aired out respectfully and settled democratically, and by the standards of left-wing parties the world over a remarkable level of cohesion and ability to avoid both mission creep and niche ideological disputes or personalist feuds that led to circular firing squads and factionalism.

By contrast, European Marxism had plenty in the offing of charismatic personalities but also a fair share of schismatic personalities, and the "Red Schisms" of 1916-17 proved to be a near-fatal blow to the cause of European socialism that would require the Central European War's turbulent aftermath to recover from, and even then republican socialism in Belgium and France would need to wait close to a decade to truly synthesize and supplant staid social democracy and progressive liberalism as counter-reactionary forces. Central to the upheavals that occurred almost uniformly across Europe during this narrow window of time - with the curious exception of France, where the left of the SFIO and the moderate social democrats of the URS were able to cooperate against the increasingly erratic monarchist regime - was the aftershocks of two of the most important events in early 20th century Europe - the Revolutions of 1912, which had been more of a social rather than political or economic revolution, and the failure of the 1915 Belgian general strike. After a brief lull in radical politics after the 1870s and 1890s waves of anarchist violence, 1912 had seen a considerably more sophisticated and popular labor movement explode across the European political spectrum, successfully winning elections (with particular triumphs in Spain) and through mass action bringing countries to a standstill, as was the case in the major strike waves that roiled Britian in the "Great Unrest." The failure of the general strike in Belgium in 1915, meanwhile, had built upon this modernizing laborist politics both by making the cause of labor rights one of pan-European interest once again, and by re-injecting syndicalism as a formal ideology back into the mainstream of the European left, synthesizing the passe anarchism of the last decades of the 19th century with the complex organization of modern labor unions and pressing past ideas such as socialist reform or communitarian "vanguardism" towards the new leading edge of revolutionary thought. [1]

Ironically, syndicalism was a thought process that had been born in anarchism but had needed to germinate overseas before being properly brought back to Europe. The International Workers of the World had staked out a position of total industrial unionism and not only survived but, for a moment, thrived; even as it was eclipsed by more conservative, traditional unionism by the time the Great American War had broken out, ideas like sectoral bargaining and the end of craft unions remained its legacy for decades to come and dramatically reshaped the landscape of American labor even as less revolutionary middle-class voices won out. Syndicalism had found its most intensive home in Mexico, where the IWW-affiliated Casa de Obrera Mundial had organized an anarcho-syndicalist paramilitary into an outright revolt at the height of the war, branding itself the Sindicato General de Mexico and announcing that all members of all unions were automatically members in this "single union" that discriminated not by industry, creed, class, gender or race. The SGM had been the direct inspiration for the Sindicat-Generale Belgique, and all "General Syndicates" to come.

What the most radical socialists in Europe found attractive about revolutionary syndicalism was that it promised one of the most alluring prospects of anarchism - the replacement of the state - without opening the door to what they by 1916-17 considered one of the most dangerous through-currents in democratic socialism, that being the potential absorption of the socialist cause by the establishment and thus the subornation of the worker to the state. To the arch-radicals of mid-1910s Europe, the French experience was Exhibit A of this phenomenon; the ultra-Catholic monarchy had instituted a robust welfare state and strong worker's protections and directly associated such ideals with nationalist patriotism and presented them as godly and noble causes, thrusts which undercut the material appeal of socialism and had, for decades, left left-wing politics in France the terrain of progressive laicistes in Paris more focused on secularism and vague ideals of republicanism than they were on the need for a revolution of the world working class.

Syndicalism thus spoke directly to this current. The State, which was in their view in the end the ultimate arbiter and purveyor of capitalist violence through its policing powers, would be abolished and replaced by "one big union" that represented all workers equally under the law, and this new form of governance was the final form of the proletarian world Marx had envisioned. The great enemy of syndicalism thus became not necessarily the bourgeoisie as a class but the concept of nationalism itself, and the self-devouring orgy of the Red Schism followed promptly as ideological opponents were denounced not as reactionaries, or revisionists, or tools of capitalism, but as nationalists. (The irony that General Syndicates identified themselves by their country of origin was certainly lost on them).

The syndicalists who could not seize power of their own parties elected to decamp from them. Alceste de Ambris, perhaps Italy's most doggedly famous figure of the hard left, announced his resignation from the PSI, in part because of the dominance of moderate "collaborationist" figures such as Filippo Turati and Giacomo Matteoti over its governing organs, and in part because he could not wrest control of the PSI's vitriolic newspaper Avanti! from the bullheaded young left-nationalist Benito Mussolini (who, nonetheless, remained close friends with Filippo Corridoni, who would come to head the Unione Sindacale Italiana, the chief syndicalist organization which de Ambris came to join). The German left, possibly the most well-organized in continental Europe, saw a smaller-scale version of such a breach, as socialists disillusioned with the "accommodative" electoralism of the SDP under Friedrich Ebert in the years since August Bebel's death began to organize into new "working groups" inside the Reichstag, led by the affable Hugo Haasse, as well as left-wing paramilitaries led by figures such as Karl Liebknecht which in time came to identify pointedly with syndicalism and anointed themselves the Generalsindikat-Deutschland in February of 1918, a mere thirteen months before the Central European War's outbreak, with Liebknecht as their chief propagandist. Similar stories played out across Europe - the MSZDP in Hungary was denounced as bourgeoise and revisionist by its secessionsit syndicalist members who, ironically, also viewed anti-Habsburg nationalists as their greatest ally against Vienna; the RSDLP in Russia, already swimming against the tide in Europe's most autocratic state, were crippled by internal disagreements between socialist, syndicalist and communitarian factions that all debated who, exactly was the vanguard of the revolution,

Possibly the most acute division, however, occurred in Sweden, where the tensions between the parliamentary Social Democratic Worker's Party and its youth league finally erupted in the party congress of June 1917 and saw party leader Hjalmar Branting, already in declining health, clubbed to death by Karl Kilbom, who quickly fled into exile in the United States for the rest of his life. The Youth League's resentments were numerous - the SDAP had shifted from revolutionary socialism to reformist social democracy under Branting even after the rejection of bills for universal suffrage and the increasingly autocratic behavior of the government since the Courtyard Speech in 1914, and the SDAP had not, as men such as Zeth Hoglund and Kilbom had demanded, triggered a general strike to prevent the Swedish-Norwegian War of 1905, at that time the most recent general war on European soil. The Socialist Youth Party - Ungdomssocialistiska Parti - may not have borne the title "general syndicate," but it was for all intents and purposes an explicitly syndicalist party, and it rejected political organizing and instead promoted armed revolutionary struggle as its outlet at a level unseen elsewhere in industrial Europe, helping condemn the diminished SDAP, and Swedish left-liberalism more generally, to minority status for decades to come under not just repression from the right-wing majority but also its own internal feuds that took half a century to heal the rage over the "Branting Affair."

Curiously, it was Spain that saw little such activity in the heady, prewar days of the late 1910s, and that was for a few reasons. Spain had been the epicenter of European anarchism since its initial evolution in the 1870s, inspired by the writings of Bukharin and carefully encouraged first my figures such as Francisco Pi y Margall and then built upon in the subsequent decades either through tacit acceptance by radicals such as Manuel Ruiz Zorilla or directly encouraged by men such as Alejandro Lerroux or Francisco Ferrer. Thus, the foundation of the PSOE had never included the genuine hard-left in Spain, which had always marched to the beat of its own drum and whose revolutionary zeal was intermixed with feuds stemming from the republican debates of the 1870s in the aftermath of the Glorious Revolution of 1868 as well as a healthy dose of Catalan nationalism.

It could thus be argued that it was in other countries that the era of the Red Schisms helped neuter socialism at the hour that perhaps Europe needed a push against rampant nationalism the most, and that the spectacular infighting and splintering of mainstream leftist parties that had achieved parliamentary acceptance only recently augured the eruption of one of the continent's most destructive wars just a few short years later..." [2][3]

- Socialism and Europe

[1] Essentially what is happening here is the OTL Bolshevik brand of communism never gets to take off, so industrial syndicalism quickly replaces it as the main line of thinking on the hard left. I realize that this has been done before in other timelines, but I think it suits CdM quite well.
[2] Of course this is a bit contradictory, as the "mainstream" European social democrats and socialists include arch-nationalists like Mussolini, but it's worth the foreshadowing
[3] This thing rambled on a bit and I'm not entirely happy with how it turned out but hopefully it sort of captures the landscape/excuses some of my decision-making long-term in Europe, particularly ahead of the war's outbreak
 
Missed the last few days of updates/posts. I got radicalized during the Hay Administration yes, both at Hay's in-universe and out-of-universe portrayal in the prior thread. Plus, not to get too meta, I work at a job where this website is NOT blocked by IT, so I spent a lot of time here reading and re-reading TLs, and Cinco de Mayo is an incredible piece of work so it was (and is) a joy to read and re-read. Makes it easy to dig deep into the world here.


🤷‍♂️ 🤷‍♂️ I am consistently flattered that people are interested in what I have to say though.


Turns out that not fighting and losing the most destructive war the world had ever seen to that point followed by a horrific civil war will be only a good thing for a country. Who knew? On a more serious note, I am interested to see how democracy develops - or doesn't develop - in Russia going forward.

I agree more with @Aged_Urbanist on the economic matters raised upthread. My question to @KingSweden24 is "Do you have a post in the pipeline outlining exactly how Mellon's deflationary policies are hurting the country and the political response?" We've danced a lot around Mellon's deleterious influence on the country without getting into exactly how his fiscal policies (don't) work.
Thank you!

I do, indeed, aiming for that to more or less align with autumn/early winter 1917 though that is subject to change (which means it's coming up soon). It'll cover Mellonism as a whole and why, exactly, it doesn't work, especially in the context of demobilizing a war economy.
 
I take it this means Belgium doesn't disappear from the map right after the CEW but a bit later on?
Correct
A nice turn of phrase there. Brings to mind OTL current American politics.
Thank you
Minor nitpick: this is not quite correct in Spanish, it should be either “Casa Obrera Mundial” or “Casa Mundial de Obreros”. I’m also not sure of what ”Casa” is supposed to mean in this context.
You are right, the "de" is erroneous.

This is in reference to:

 
Land of the Morning Calm: Korea's 20th Century
"...Young Korea was not, always, particularly young; nobody would confuse Seo Jai-pil (known in the West by his Christian name, Philip Jaisohn) or Park Eun-sik as "young." Nonetheless, the movement was an important flashpoint in Northeast Asia in the turbulent wake left behind by Kim Hong-jip's death, if for no other reason than Jaisohn in particular was regarded with a huge amount of suspicion by Young Korea's more conservative factions, due to both his participation in the Gapsin Incident in 1884 and his lengthy time in exile until the broad amnesties of the late Gojong Era allowed him to return from self-imposed American exile.

This was perhaps unfair to Jaisohn. He was, unlike the pro-Japanese "Wonsan Faction," not a revisionist regarding the events of 1884, which he tried to explain away in his later years as Sinophobic rather than Japanophile. His commitment to Korea was to build on the improvements made by Kim Hong-jip over the long term, devising an internally stronger polity with a focus on liberty, equality, and constitutionalism, which for all the marked improvements of the Gojong era were far away and the rotating cast of ministers best known for their arbitrariness suggested that Kim's strong hand had been needed. Rather, Jaisohn was a staunch Amerophile, a point of view that aligned him increasingly with Queen Min, whom he had in his younger days tried to overthrow.

The trend in Korea, after Kim's death, was increasingly polarized between two camps of modernizers - the pan-Asianists who largely supported Japan's line, which by this point included Gojong himself even if Min remained resistant; and the "progressives" who looked to the United States and, increasingly, Republican China, and thus were often tarred as enemies of the monarchy. One of the few men who was able to thread this needle, it turned out, was Ahn Chang-ho.

Ahn, unlike Jaisohn or other Young Korea figures such as Rhee Syng-man or Kim Gu, was a republican, but so enormously popular with the Korean street that to arrest him would have triggered a huge backlash that could have destabilized the monarchy as Gojong's health faltered. Ahn had been an early immigrant to the United States and despite remarkably anti-Asian discrimination experienced in California, he had pressed ahead in his desire to develop a constitutional republic on the Korean peninsula in the fashion of the United States, with a strong Presidency and strict separation of powers. He was regarded as the peninsula's premier nationalist, a figure who was not just desirous of a strong Korea but a dominant Korea, and who eschewed the factionalism that ran through Young Korea like the Han River.

Most importantly, Ahn was vehemently anti-Japanese but also staunchly anti-French and not particularly fond of the Russians, meaning that he provided a clear outlet in terms of political support for those in Young Korea who disliked leaders subservient to Tokyo (like Jaisohn, even if he had become increasingly skeptical of Tokyo's brand of pan-Asianism), St. Petersburg (Rhee) or Paris (the royal family and, to a lesser extent, Park and Kim Gu). The events of 1917 in East Asia further spurred this; the horrific reaction of France to the May Rebellion in Indochina, and the relative success of the liberal-nationalist Kuomintang Party in China, inspired the emerging Korean middle class and literati who had attended Catholic and Methodist schools and now could read not only Hangul but often foreign languages and had developed a keen, almost zealous, belief that Korea's "hermit kingdom" status had left it in the crosshairs between multiple competing powers.

It was also thus the case that the May Rebellion, and the negative reaction to reports of spectacular French brutality across Tonkin and parts of central Annam in response to it, was another blow to French prestige in Seoul, in decline progressively since the early 1890s and falling rapidly as France increasingly had conceded that it could not maintain a protectorate over the Kingdom with Japan and Russia in agreement to exercise influence over the peninsula and box out French and, to a lesser extent, American and Chinese progressive thinking. That this Francophobic sentiment was now increasingly widespread in not just the peninsula's hinterland but increasingly in Busan shocked French sensibilities, and after Paris' paranoia about its oriental position increased after the revolt of May 1917, the rising tide of Kuomintang-inspired anti-imperialist agitation and what appeared to be explicit American support for it in Korea led to a number of miscalculations in the Orient by Paris that served to alienate Russia and Japan, and particularly persuaded the latter of French weakness rather than strength in the region..."

- Land of the Morning Calm: Korea's 20th Century

(This update is a bit word-salady since its hard to extrapolate how these various Korean independence figures of the 1910s would map to CdM (and I'll be honest, the Gapsin Coup and Imo Incident still sort of confuse me a bit), but hopefully it captures A) internal Korean dynamics with the various powers circling the peninsula like sharks and B) starts to imply that France's position in the East is deteriorating very fast)
 
[1] Essentially what is happening here is the OTL Bolshevik brand of communism never gets to take off, so industrial syndicalism quickly replaces it as the main line of thinking on the hard left. I realize that this has been done before in other timelines, but I think it suits CdM quite well.
The Theme of the TL is to bring obscure's of OTL and bring them to the limelight. Syndicalism for the hard left, Integralism for the hard right. It fits.
 
the few men who was able to thread this needle, it turned out, was Ahn Chang-ho.

Ahn, unlike Jaisohn or other Young Korea figures such as Rhee Syng-man or Kim Gu, was a republican, but so enormously popular with the Korean street that to arrest him would have triggered a huge backlash that could have destabilized the monarchy as Gojong's health faltered. Ahn had been an early immigrant to the United States and despite remarkably anti-Asian discrimination experienced in California, he had pressed ahead in his desire to develop a constitutional republic on the Korean peninsula in the fashion of the United States
Is Korea an absolute or constitutional monarchy ITTL?
 
The Theme of the TL is to bring obscure's of OTL and bring them to the limelight. Syndicalism for the hard left, Integralism for the hard right. It fits.
it’s funny because I recommended this to the Kaiserreich Devs and it’s heading in that direction a little bit. Great work as always, eager to see where you’re taking this.
I'm certainly not treading new ground with Syndicalism v. Integralism rather than Communism v. Fascism, by any means (indeed I think @MaskedPickle and his "For Want of a Sandwich" is able to do this take in a way more gloriously deranged fashion than I can endeavor to).

And thank you! That is very kind of you to recommend my work to such titans of the genre.
Is Korea an absolute or constitutional monarchy ITTL?
Somewhere in between. Even OTL's late-period Korea had political parties they just didn't do a whole lot; Kim Hong-jip was appointed at the whim of the King, parliamentary majorities mattered not a wit.
Will we see Syndicalist or Socialist movements in the various European colonies before the European War?
Maybe to some extent? TTL's Kuomintang is definitely more left-flavored than our own (thanks to lacking a Chiang Kai-shek figure and being more anti-imperialist than purely nationalist) but I don't think Syndicalism will take off in the next two years in Asia or Africa, at all, no.
 
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