The eagle's left head

Let me see. In OTL the population of Sicily went from 144,872 hearths to 63,848 in 1374 , the barons were fighting each other and the crown... if it made Frederick think what the hell he was doing in the 46 years he was ruling, why it wasn't noticed by anyone...
What the absolute fuck is Fredrick doing god fucking damn it I wish the Norman’s rule Sicily forever holy shit wtf
 
Part 46
Naples, February 1325

The port was bustling with activity. Robert of Anjou had imposed the subvertio generalis once more, for 37,175 onze [1] and was recruiting mercenaries , both from his French lands and the rest of France on a large scale. In theory his feudal holdings in the south of Italy could provide thousands of knights and infantrymen. In practice for nearly all campaigns he could not rely on them. But his kingdom was rich and France, and increasingly Italy, were anything but short of fighting men. Now almost 10,000 men, 2,500 knights and gendarmes, 4,500 foot sergeants and some 3,000 ribaldi light infantry had been gathered alongside a fleet of 82 war galleys for what hopefully was going to be the decisive campaign against Sicily.

Monemvasia, April 1325


Three thousand Sicilian soldiers begun unloading from the ships to join with Philanthropenos army campaigning against Manuel II Palaiologos. Back in Sicily Ioannis expected to have a comfortable numerical superiority against Frederick even with the reinforcements sent to Greece. Besides his agreement with Robert called for the despotate getting the entirety of Val Demone and Val di Noto. And this by now had been nearly accomplished, what remained outside of Ioannis control would likely fall in the coming campaign season.

Trapani, May 1325

Robert's army had been transported to Sicily over the previous weeks. Now under Roberts personal command in begun advancing against Palermo while the Neapolital fleet followed the coast eastwards to blockade Palermo from the sea.

Messina, May 1325


Ioannis Doukas Vatatzis had spent the past 8 years in campaigns his nameshhake Comnenos, 2 centuries before, or for that matter his contemporary Orhan Ghazi would had readily recognized steadily conquering the parts of Val Demone and Val di Noto in Aragonese hands a bit at a time. But now it was time to bring the war at an end. As his brother in law marched against Palermo from the west, Ioannis led his own army of 7,000 men against Palermo from the east while his fleet of forty galleys under Michael Philanthropenos, Alexios son, accompanied the army from the sea.

Palermo, May 26th 1325


Frederick, prudently had made no attempt to challenge the Angevin and Lascarid armies marching against him. His own army with hardly 5,000 men available would had hardly managed to take on either the Angevin or the Lascarid armies in open battle on their own, much less combined. Captain general Giovanni Chiaramonte would instead defend Palermo while Frederick with his son Peter would take the cavalry and almogavars to harrass the besiegers. Now with the joint Angevin-Lascarid army in front of the walls of Palermo it remained to be seen whether Palermo would manage to hold out or not.

Laconia, October 1325


The castle of Maina and Gytheio fell to Philanthropenos army. By now Manuel II was hemmed from all directions from Lascarid armies and forts.

Palermo, November 1325


Palermo was still holding out after six months, Chiaramontehad used even the paving stones from the streets as ammunition against the besiegers. Now with winter setting in, Robert decided to lift the siege and pull his army and navy back into winter quarters despite Ioannis insisting to continue the siege. But Robert was still troubled by memories of the Angevin fleet gettng severely damaged off the Sicilian coast and then being finished of by Alexandros, with himself taken captive, two decades ago. He was not going to risk his fleet and army continuing a perilous siege in the middle of winter just because Ioannis hated Frederick.

Athens, January 1326


It had been feared that Adrienne, after her treatment by Milutin would had never be able to have any children, a troubling situation since Ioannis and Maria of Anjou after over two decades of marrriage did not have any children either. The past years had seemed to bear this true. But the worriers had been proven wrong when Adrienne had become pregnant and carried the pregnancy to term. It was questionable if she would ever manage to have more children. But Adrenne and Theodore did not quite care, now they had a son.

Naples, April 1326


King Robert was troubled at the news received from Greece. That baby was a possible problem to the house of Anjou long term plans. With Maria having no children Robert had been hoping that after she and Ioannis passed away, Achaea and Syracuse would revert to the house of Anjou. Theodore could had been a potential issue had he lived past his brother but as long as it seemed likely he was never going to have children of his own, Robert was prepared to wait out for his death, he or Charles could negotiate accepting him as ruler in exchange for the land reverting to the crown after his death.

Itea, April 1326


1,500 Sicilian troops landed in the small harbour to join with Andronikos Asen army. After last year's campaign Ioannis had no intention of spending men and treasure just for Robert to squander their efforts. Particularly since given his treaty with Robert he was not going to gain any more land in Sicily. Campaigning in Greece was way more profitable. This would not stop him from launching constant raids with his remaining army and navy into Frederick's remaining lands. The Sicilian barons had thought the despotates peasantry were fair targets for looting. It was only fair to return to them the favour.

Prusa, April 1326

The city fell to Orhan ghazi, after being blockaded by the Ottomans since 1317. Orhan would soon proclaim it the first Ottoman capital.

Athens, Auhust 15th, 1326

The baby boy start crying as the priest, Theodore and Adrienne had chosen the same monk Ioannis had sent over to secure Adrienne's divorce, Barlaam, took their newly baptized son out of the water and handed him over to his godfather, basileus Andronikos III. Alexandros, named after his grandfather, would be then clad in the purple and white befitting a despot, as his godfather had conferred to him the title for the occasion. Andronikos and his entourage would leave for Thrace a week later carrying with him his brother Manuel, captured by Alexios Philanthropenos at Mystra earlier in the year.

Trapani, November 1326


The Angevins following the failed siege of Palermo had resumed their campaign in Sicily with the new year. By now after two years of campaining over a fifth of Val di Mazzara was securely in Angevin hands and Frederick would have to choose whether he would pay for his army or his navy. But the success had come at immense cost, Robert had spend 1.25 million florins in two years. It was questionable whether he could continue the campaign on so grand a scale not with the news coming from Germany that Louis of Bavaria would be marching to Italy in person to proclaim himself holy Roman emperor.


[1] Figure from Sakellariou"Italy in the Late Middle Ages"
 
Sounds like the Morea has been totally occupied by Andronikos and the Vatatzes, so that is one theater less, more focus against Alfonso in Thessaly, perchance. Fall of Prusa is not good, maybe reconcile the two Andronikos to focus against the turk. Serbia should be looking to invade around now, interesting times.
 
Reconciliation between Double A and Triple A seems unlikely, there is too much bad blood. A2's situation is made worse with the Despotate's actions ITTL (Aka removal of Imperial influence from Southern Hellas);

I wonder if we will see the Catepanate participate in A3's coalition assault on Serbia in the 1330's, although this would mean the Thessaly is pacified by that time so the Catalans would have to be dealt with by then; Would be nice if they took care of Epirus while they're there, but I'm not aware of any casus belli the Despotate could have on them;

It seems likely the Byzantine's will lose control of Anatolia soon, or be able to ever undertake a reconquest at all; Seems like when Nicaea falls soon enough, any Palaiologos will believe Anatolia to be a lost cause. Although a Vatatzes/Lacarid Dynasty might have a different opinion one might hope...
 
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Palermo, November 1325
I wonder why the Angevins were that scared of Frederick's navy. I don't think the Catalans could've amassed a big enough navy to fight both the Angevins and the Vatatzes.
Athens, January 1326
Naples, April 1326
And we have a new child in the family! He will be destined for great things if he doesn't die early. And I do agree with Robert that its not good for his machinations. If Joanna comes onto the throne as per otl. There's a huge possibility that Alexandros II could take advantage of it if Hungary invades as per otl too.
Trapani, November 1326
and Robert loses his chance to deal with Frederick. I don't think the Vatatzes would fight Frederick again (other than to weaken Frederick by raiding into Frederick-controlled lands) until Robert dies, which may be something that is good for Robert overall, as Sicily basically can't really fight the Angevins until they deal with the Vatatzes, which is a lot stronger than them especially as they control most of Sicily and more and more at Greece.
Sounds like the Morea has been totally occupied by Andronikos and the Vatatzes, so that is one theater less, more focus against Alfonso in Thessaly, perchance. Fall of Prusa is not good, maybe reconcile the two Andronikos to focus against the turk. Serbia should be looking to invade around now, interesting times.
The fall of Bursa is the same as otl, its Philadelphia that was more concerning.

I do wonder how Andronikos III would deal with the Vatatzes when he gets on the throne though. The Vatatzes/Lascarids are becoming more and more powerful, and they are among the strongest allies that he may not be able to control. Added to the fact that Alexandros II was born to the family and I could see Andronikos becoming more weary of them.
Reconciliation between Double A and Triple A seems unlikely, there is too much bad blood. A2's situation is made worse with the Despotate's actions ITTL (Aka removal of Imperial influence from Southern Hellas);
yeah they're still under a civil war, and Manuel was captured by Andronikos III bc he's allies with the Lascarids. The Vatatzes/Lascarids are too important to Andronikos rn, and the potential armies they could muster are too important for him to not leverage.
I wonder if we will see the Catepanate participate in A3's coalition assault on Serbia in the 1330's, although this would mean the Thessaly is pacified by that time so the Catalans would have to be dealt with by then; Would be nice if they took care of Epirus while they're there, but I'm not aware of any casus belli the Despotate could have on them.
I think its more likely that we see the Vatatzes having to finish Alfonso and Thessaly first to be able to deal with Serbia. I could see Andronikos III allowing that to happen to open a new front that the Serbs can't deal with, but then the price would be the loss of the rest of the Eastern Balkans. The only consolation prize for the Empire in this case would be Thessaloniki, which I think would be hard for the Vatatzes to control.
It seems likely the Byzantine's will lose control of Anatolia soon, or be able to ever undertake a reconquest at all; Seems like when Nicaea falls soon enough, any Palaiologos will believe Anatolia to be a lost cause. Although a Vatatzes/Lacarid Dynasty might have a different opinion one might hope...
I could see the Vatatzes attempt to retake one of the smaller Beyliks like the Menteshe or the Aydinids, but I don't see Andronikos attempt anything. The Empire is too weak in general, and they don't have the navy to do so.
 
Robert had spend 1.25 million florins in two years
A sum roughly equal to six year's worth of the regular income of the King of England (excluding his french fiefs).

I do wonder how Andronikos III would deal with the Vatatzes when he gets on the throne though. The Vatatzes/Lascarids are becoming more and more powerful, and they are among the strongest allies that he may not be able to control. Added to the fact that Alexandros II was born to the family and I could see Andronikos becoming more weary of them.
In a previous chapter I think it was indicated that he was acutely aware of the rise of the Lascarids. It seems his way of dealing with them was to befriend Theodore and now he seeks to strengthening these ties by christening his kinsman. A somewhat "keep your friends close and your enemies closer approach". It seems like an opportunistic alliances that due to circumstances works well. The Lascarids will have to deal with Frederick and a potentially hostile Naples, with the Angevins being a Great Power. The Empire at the same time has to deal with expansionist Serbia and (secondarily at this point) Orhan. As long as these greater threats exist, then the familial bonds Andronikos and Theodore are building, will be a sufficient source of stability.

I wonder if we will see the Catepanate participate in A3's coalition assault on Serbia in the 1330's, although this would mean the Thessaly is pacified by that time so the Catalans would have to be dealt with by then; Would be nice if they took care of Epirus while they're there, but I'm not aware of any casus belli the Despotate could have on them;
For the next 4 years, Louis of Bavaria will be in Italy and will absorb the vast majority of angevin resources. Ioannis won't need the 4,500 men he sent across the sea. Back in 1322 the Catepanate could provide at least 6,000 men for a campaign and now the resources of Boeotia and Attica have been added. Very soon, the era's foremost general will be able to call a host at least 10,000 strong. I cannot see how Fadrique can survive the coming storm.

Speaking of Serbia, I think we have seen that the two brothers can hold a grudge. In any case, Decanski won't be receiving Catalan mercenaries. Of course, he theoretically could attract more men from Italy, but with the Emperor departing only in 1330, I doubt he could attract a much larger body of mercenaries before 1331. While I don't think that Theodore would bankrupt his realm to fight the Serbians, he could still send a contingent to fight the son of his wife's rapist.
 
A sum roughly equal to six year's worth of the regular income of the King of England (excluding his french fiefs).
Jesus that's a lot of money...
In a previous chapter I think it was indicated that he was acutely aware of the rise of the Lascarids. It seems his way of dealing with them was to befriend Theodore and now he seeks to strengthening these ties by christening his kinsman. A somewhat "keep your friends close and your enemies closer approach". It seems like an opportunistic alliances that due to circumstances works well. The Lascarids will have to deal with Frederick and a potentially hostile Naples, with the Angevins being a Great Power. The Empire at the same time has to deal with expansionist Serbia and (secondarily at this point) Orhan. As long as these greater threats exist, then the familial bonds Andronikos and Theodore are building, will be a sufficient source of stability.
Yeah Andronikos III can't exactly fight his best ally while fighting the civil war and having other powerful enemies attempt to destroy him.
For the next 4 years, Louis of Bavaria will be in Italy and will absorb the vast majority of angevin resources. Ioannis won't need the 4,500 men he sent across the sea. Back in 1322 the Catepanate could provide at least 6,000 men for a campaign and now the resources of Boeotia and Attica have been added. Very soon, the era's foremost general will be able to call a host at least 10,000 strong. I cannot see how Fadrique can survive the coming storm.
Hmm so the angevins are about to get a lot weaker? They're still going to be a lot stronger than the Vatatzes, them having to fight enemies many years does make it hard for the Angevins...
Speaking of Serbia, I think we have seen that the two brothers can hold a grudge. In any case, Decanski won't be receiving Catalan mercenaries. Of course, he theoretically could attract more men from Italy, but with the Emperor departing only in 1330, I doubt he could attract a much larger body of mercenaries before 1331. While I don't think that Theodore would bankrupt his realm to fight the Serbians, he could still send a contingent to fight the son of his wife's rapist.
I do hope we see Serbia never getting much of Greece and they fragment by themselves eventually. Theodore should eventually attempt to deal with the Serbs, if only bc they would be more trouble than their worth if they get too powerful.
 
It seems likely the Byzantine's will lose control of Anatolia soon, or be able to ever undertake a reconquest at all; Seems like when Nicaea falls soon enough, any Palaiologos will believe Anatolia to be a lost cause. Although a Vatatzes/Lacarid Dynasty might have a different opinion one might hope...
I would say that there is a possible opening against the Anatolian beyliks soon enough in the Timurid conquests and their disruption of Anatolia, but considering historical Tamerlane wasn't born until a decade after the current year of the timeline, the existence of the Timurid dynasty proper seems suspect. That said, the Mongol successor states still hold significant sway in the Near East, and unless something has butterflied the collapse of the Ilkhanate there will soon be a power vacuum for someone to exploit in Iran and eastern Anatolia. Could be the Chagatai Khanate proper or (as with Timur) another Chagatai confederation/group, could be the Golden Horde, could be a more endogenous Persian splinter, even the Mamluk Sultanate just growing more influential in Upper Mesopotamia and Anatolia. Whatever the case, it's still extremely dynamic over there, and disruptive events hitting Anatolia and giving either of the leading Byzantine polities an opening to restore Asia Minor are likely.

Moreover, the rise of a single Rûm Turk beylik to dominance is not deterministically guaranteed; while Anatolian geographic realities discourage the level of prolonged geopolitical fragmentation of say the Balkans, nothing is demanding the House of Osman to share the massive streak of good fortune it saw IRL. If even just the coast stays splintered for a while, a stronger Hellenic presence (if the current dispute between the Vatatzes and Palaiologos is resolved soonish) would realistically start to throw weight around over there eventually.
 
I would say that there is a possible opening against the Anatolian beyliks soon enough in the Timurid conquests and their disruption of Anatolia, but considering historical Tamerlane wasn't born until a decade after the current year of the timeline, the existence of the Timurid dynasty proper seems suspect. That said, the Mongol successor states still hold significant sway in the Near East, and unless something has butterflied the collapse of the Ilkhanate there will soon be a power vacuum for someone to exploit in Iran and eastern Anatolia. Could be the Chagatai Khanate proper or (as with Timur) another Chagatai confederation/group, could be the Golden Horde, could be a more endogenous Persian splinter, even the Mamluk Sultanate just growing more influential in Upper Mesopotamia and Anatolia. Whatever the case, it's still extremely dynamic over there, and disruptive events hitting Anatolia and giving either of the leading Byzantine polities an opening to restore Asia Minor are likely.
I think even without Timur I think we'd see a conquerer pop up and undergo the conquest of Persia at least and causing a bunch of knock-on effects on the rest of the middle East. Even though I think we're likely to have Timur come in as per otl, I think someone like an Arabian sultan just being really lucky would be possible too.
Moreover, the rise of a single Rûm Turk beylik to dominance is not deterministically guaranteed; while Anatolian geographic realities discourage the level of prolonged geopolitical fragmentation of say the Balkans, nothing is demanding the House of Osman to share the massive streak of good fortune it saw IRL. If even just the coast stays splintered for a while, a stronger Hellenic presence (if the current dispute between the Vatatzes and Palaiologos is resolved soonish) would realistically start to throw weight around over there eventually.
Tbf I hope we see the Lascarids hold Western Anatolia where most Greeks still lived at that point in time.
 
I do hope we see Serbia never getting much of Greece and they fragment by themselves eventually. Theodore should eventually attempt to deal with the Serbs, if only bc they would be more trouble than their worth if they get too powerful.
Perhaps, eventually, but when/if it would happen, it still would be much further down on the line, while, Epirus and particularly its current ruler, might, IMO, turn to a more pressing issue in the near future...
 
Perhaps, eventually, but when/if it would happen, it still would be much further down on the line, while, Epirus and particularly its current ruler, might, IMO, turn to a more pressing issue in the near future...
If Theodore fights in Thessaly he's going to be fighting the Epirotes anyways, so he was always going to have to deal with them before dealing with the Serbs. I think we'd probably see the Angevins begrudgingly accept Lascarid help again as most of the Lascarid army is in the Balkans rn ,and I have no doubt that more and more of Alfonso's and thessaly's lands would be conquered by the Lascarids eventually.

Also I wonder how would the next generation be like. We know the Asens and Philantropenos' families are all in the Despotate/Captanate and they're all important players in the realms of the Lacarids. I hope we get an exotic family that becomes an important noble family too. A Turk-descended noble family would be interesting for example.
 
If Theodore fights in Thessaly he's going to be fighting the Epirotes anyways, so he was always going to have to deal with them before dealing with the Serbs. I think we'd probably see the Angevins begrudgingly accept Lascarid help again as most of the Lascarid army is in the Balkans rn ,and I have no doubt that more and more of Alfonso's and thessaly's lands would be conquered by the Lascarids eventually.
Indeed, but I was thinking that given its ruler 'proclivities', I think possible that in the event of any Lascaris' setback and/or anything that would get them busy enough as for that he would act on what he would believe that would be opens up an opportunity for him to take advantage... Thus setting him and Epirus itself on a collision curse with the Sicilian Despotate...
Also I wonder how would the next generation be like. We know the Asens and Philantropenos' families are all in the Despotate/Captanate and they're all important players in the realms of the Lacarids. I hope we get an exotic family that becomes an important noble family too. A Turk-descended noble family would be interesting for example.
Dunno, perhaps, would be possible that some kind of Turk 'political refuge' from some dynastic war in some Beylicates and/or the converted descendant of one, with his entourage, integrated to the Imperial aristocracy would perhaps be the origen of such kind of family...
 
Also I wonder how would the next generation be like. We know the Asens and Philantropenos' families are all in the Despotate/Captanate and they're all important players in the realms of the Lacarids. I hope we get an exotic family that becomes an important noble family too. A Turk-descended noble family would be interesting for example.
Considering the Katepanate of Hellas basically consists of all the places they settled intensively, I could definitely see some Arvanite figures gaining prominence in its workings. A Christian Turk family - I think Turcopole was still kind of used in this era to refer to Turkic soldiers in the Byzantine army - either of Rûm ancestry or perhaps older Cuman or Pecheneg descent (more likely now that Anatolia is currently being abandoned piecemeal by the ERE - refugees or dissenters will be more inclined to move to Europe) is also not out of the question.

Sicily's populations of Arab and Sicilian descent are yet more options, though religious issues make that somewhat consoldiers. Both would be overwhelmingly Catholic at this point (remaining Muslims in Sicily were expelled in 1194, either to North Africa or the town of Lucera in Apulia), and while technically the Vatatzes are I wonder how much that would affect serious vertical mobility among their soldiery.
 
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Indeed, but I was thinking that given its ruler 'proclivities', I think possible that in the event of any Lascaris' setback and/or anything that would get them busy enough as for that he would act on what he would believe that would be opens up an opportunity for him to take advantage... Thus setting him and Epirus itself on a collision curse with the Sicilian Despotate...
Yeah...

I don't think we'd see a setback from the Lascarids tho the only group that would be able to do anything are either the Muslim states in Anatolia or North Africa that're attacking them from sea or Venice (which is probable but we haven't seen them do anything about the Vatatzes). If anything I could see the Venetians helping the Epirotes, but if the Lascarids are fighting in Epirus due to the Angevins they may not interfere.
Dunno, perhaps, would be possible that some kind of Turk 'political refuge' from some dynastic war in some Beylicates and/or the converted descendant of one, with his entourage, integrated to the Imperial aristocracy would perhaps be the origen of such kind of family...
If we get an Ilkhanate pretender come over and convert to Christianity that's be too fun lol.
Considering the Katepanate of Hellas basically consists of all the places they settled intensively, I could definitely see some Arvanite figures gaining prominence in its workings. A Christian Turk family - I think Turcopole was still kind of used in this era to refer to Turkic soldiers in the Byzantine army - either of Rûm ancestry or perhaps older Cuman or Pecheneg descent (more likely now that Anatolia is currently being abandoned piecemeal by the ERE - refugees or dissenters will be more inclined to move to Europe) is also not out of the question.
Tbf arvanite and turcopole ppl sounds fun, I think it would definitely be something the Lascarids accept, especially if they're publicly orthodox and quite pious. Karamanids may make sense too, they're Turks who're orthodox Christian and would fit right into the Lascarids if they know Greek.
Sicily's populations of Arab and Sicilian descent are yet more options, though religious issues make that somewhat consoldiers. Both would be overwhelmingly Catholic at this point (remaining Muslims in Sicily were expelled in 1194, either to North Africa or the town of Lucera in Apulia), and while technically the Vatatzes are I wonder how much that would affect serious vertical mobility among their soldiery.
I think for the Vatatzes if you're orthodox and speak and write good enough Greek you're basically going to have the same rights as the rest. Maybe we get Greekified surnames from surnames like Saladino and Vadala, which are surnames some Italians have irl.
 
If Theodore fights in Thessaly he's going to be fighting the Epirotes anyways, so he was always going to have to deal with them before dealing with the Serbs. I think we'd probably see the Angevins begrudgingly accept Lascarid help again as most of the Lascarid army is in the Balkans rn ,and I have no doubt that more and more of Alfonso's and thessaly's lands would be conquered by the Lascarids eventually.

Also I wonder how would the next generation be like. We know the Asens and Philantropenos' families are all in the Despotate/Captanate and they're all important players in the realms of the Lacarids. I hope we get an exotic family that becomes an important noble family too. A Turk-descended noble family would be interesting for example.
Are there still any Auxouchs left?
 
Yeah

They go extinct much later in poland and I don't think the Vatatzes would care about their hunts rn.

Yeah. Idk which candidate would be good tho. Maybe Maria? BC there's no way Joanna would be wedded to Alexandros II. Maybe Maria of duzzaro would be Maria of Sirscusa ittl...
I am not so sure about that. Considering how powerful the Laskarids have been getting, any other woman would mean that the Laskarids would be revolting against her instead. Plus, it’s not certain that she would be queen.Her parents are young and they could have more children.
 
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