Three Men, One Island - A Cuban Missile Crisis timeline
- Thread starter BurkeanLibCon
- Start date
I'm from Seattle, IOTL and (hopefully) ITTL. I beseech you, in the name of the Prophet Burr (May He Rest In Peace) spare my city ffom an allohistorical nuclear fireball.
Isn’t Seattle a big center for the defense industry - Boeing and all that? There’s also some shipyard at nearby Bremerton.
Sorry, but I think that unless the situation is resolved soon, Seattle is toast.
Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Cuba Resolution of 1962
Eighty-seventh Congress of the United States of America
Special Session
Begun and held at the City of Washington on Sunday, the twenty-eighth day of October,
one thousand, nine hundred and sixty-two
Joint Resolution
To authorize the use of the United States Armed Forces against Cuba, to ensure the complete removal of offensive nuclear weapons from Cuba and to promote the maintenance of international peace and security in Latin America, the Caribbean and the Atlantic.
Whereas on Saturday, the twenty-seventh day of October, one thousand, nine hundred and sixty-two, acts of communist aggression were committed against United States naval vessels lawfully present in international waters, in violation of the Charter of the United Nations and of international law, thereby creating a serious threat to international peace; and
Whereas such acts render it both necessary and appropriate that the United States exercise its rights to self-defense and to protect United States citizens; and
Whereas the presence of offensive nuclear weapons on Cuba presents an intolerable threat to the nations of the Western Hemisphere, including the United States, in violation of the Monroe Doctrine and of the Rio Charter of 1947; and
Whereas these attacks are part of a deliberate campaign of aggression that the Communist regime in Cuba and associated forces has been waging against its neighbors, including the United States, be it
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Congress approves and supports the determination of the President, as Commander in Chief, to take all necessary measures to repel any armed attack against the forces of the United States and to prevent further aggression
Sec. 2. The United States regards as vital to its national interest and to world peace the maintenance of international peace and security in the Caribbean and Atlantic. Consonant with the Constitution of the United States and the Charter of the United Nations and in accordance with the principles of national safety, the United States is, therefore, prepared, as the President determines, to take all necessary steps, including the use of armed force, to ensure the complete removal of all offensive nuclear weapons in Cuba and to assist any member state of the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance or any other ally requesting assistance in defense of its freedom.
Sec. 3. This resolution shall expire when the President shall determine that the peace and security of the area is reasonably assured by international conditions created by action of the United Nations or otherwise, except that it may be terminated earlier by concurrent resolution of the Congress.
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Had a slight glitch with the computer and it posted before I'd finished typing. Managed to save the script before it deleted so all is good.
Chapter 5 – Escalation
Important Timezones:
- 19:00 D.C. time & Havana time (previous day)
- 00:00 London time
- 01:00 Berlin time & Bonn time
- 03:00 Moscow time
- 05:30 Delhi time
- 08:00 Beijing time
The 29th of October begins with President Kennedy wide awake. Earlier he'd been on a phone call with General Taylor, asking how soon Operation SCABBARDS - the invasion of Cuba - could be launched. This came hot on the heels of the destruction of Guantanamo Bay by three Soviet KS-1 Komet missiles, launched from Holguín Air Base [1], which had led to the fall and capitulation of the base by 23:00 EST and the capture of around 900 survivors as POWs. General Taylor had told him that SCABBARDS could be launched by the 3rd of November at the earliest - alongside the continuing air campaign [2]. By now, control of Cuban skies was near-absolute and United States Air Force and U.S. Navy strike aircraft able to operate with only Cuban anti-aircraft fire to contend with.
So far, the war had killed around 6,000 Americans, 4,500 Soviets and over 150,000 Cubans [3].
So far, there had been several opportunities for both superpowers to end the war including Khrushchev's capitulation on the 28th, however his note never arrived as American ambassador Kohler was killed in a car accident and the message was destroyed. That was the last real chance the superpowers had to back down without any more major fighting. Despite the best efforts of both leaders, fully conscious of the mistakes of 1914 and their own situation's uncanny resemblance to the July Crisis, events had now escalated beyond their ability to control. When the West German government announced mobilisation at 05:30 EST on the morning of the 29th, all-out war between East and West became inevitable.
The government in Bonn had been keeping close eyes on events in the Caribbean from the start of the crisis. Washington-Bonn relations were at a low ebb after a debacle involving leaked plans for an independent access agency for Berlin [4]. They had anticipated any Soviet aggression to come from the direction of Berlin, divided at the end of the Second World War. West German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer was skeptical of American plans to respond to a Soviet takeover of Berlin.
Despite this, the Federal Republic of Germany (commonly known as West Germany) had taken a hardline attitude during the missile crisis and the buildup to conflict - harder than the Americans as it turned out, supporting air strikes, funding rebels and even an invasion. Bonn was perhaps the most pro-American state during the initial stages of the crisis. The outbreak of war in the Caribbean temporarily drew the focus of world tension away from Central Europe, but politicians throughout the continent scrambled to react as necessary. The Americans put their strategic forces outside Europe on DEFCON 1 alert, called up all National Guard and Reservist personnel and begun preparing for a full-scale war in Cuba. The British had already mobilised their V-Bomber to "cockpit readiness" on the 27th, on the 28th they had recalled aircraft stationed abroad to return home [5] and had quietly begun to disperse government to "regional commissioners" across the United Kingdom [6]. The Italians put their own forces on alert, but did not begin overt mobilisation for war, the Italian Parliament giving strong support for the Fanfani [7] the American Jupiter missiles there being put on alert as were the ones in Turkey. Yet there wasn't mobilisation in Germany, for fears of sending the crisis uncontrollably to war.
It was an uncomfortable situation with political leaders trying hard not to signal preparations for war whilst trying to meet the needs of protecting their citizens from nuclear war - it was a complete mess and it didn't last.
On the evening of the 28th, at 20:12 local time, the West Germans had heard of the sinking of the USS Essex. Within an hour, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (Federal Intelligence Service; BND) was reporting Soviet and East German military activity around Berlin followed by American and East German gunmen exchanging fire. The politicians in Bonn watch on in horror as the world begins to fall apart around them. By the morning of the 29th, the reports of military activity appear to be receding. Was Khrushchev having a change of heart? At By 4 in the morning, Adenauer is aware of the destruction of Guantanamo and Santa Clara by the Americans. The BND spooks in West Berlin was providing unclear reports of Warsaw Pact activity in the city. Some reports were saying that the Soviets and East Germans were pulling back, others yet spoke of stones hurled by civilians at East German policemen manning checkpoints.
What finally pushed Bonn over the edge were reports that the East German government was on the verge of "preparing their country for war", they would calling up reservists and ask the Soviets for military assistance. This report came from discussions in East Berlin just as the quarantine of Berlin was being initiated, from their own fears of Western retaliation to any sealing off of Berlin.
It was an uncomfortable moment for the West German lawmakers, that their eastern neighbours may be preparing for war against them. Were they certain they were preparing for war? No, but that uncertainty played strongly on their minds. If they did nothing and the Warsaw Pact was in fact preparing for war, they'd have lost the war without a fight.
After a drawn-out cabinet meeting, the Federal Republic's government held a press conference at 11:30 local time in which they revealed the information they had concerning Soviet and East German preparation. In addition, they announced the mobilisation of the Bundeswehr and requested that their NATO allies came to their aid. They did not wish for a war, but they saw Eastern bloc actions as preparation for war and reacted to it as they believed was necessary.
President Kennedy received news of West German mobilisation at 05:40 EST. He's not happy, he's already got enough on his plate trying to sort Cuba out without provoking a wider war with the Soviet Union. To some in EXCOMM and the Joint Chiefs, it comes as a relief - at least they know who they're fighting and can prepare as such. Most of EXCOMM does not share this view. Kennedy is appalled at that sentiment, he knows he's now in an unstoppable situation. After trying so hard not to blunder into war, the war sought desperately to avoid is now unstoppable. Defense Secretary McNamara is unhappy, he also doesn't want a nuclear war, but he also has more immediate concerns - mobilisation in Europe threatens to disrupt the invasion plans for Cuba. There are over 400,000 U.S. troops across all branches stationed in Europe will need reinforcements, food and medical supplies.
The present forces in Europe are to be ordered to their wartime positions and European Command is to put on the same strategic alert as the rest of U.S forces worldwide. At 06:12 EST, General Lauris Norstad receives a war-warning from Kennedy. After brief conversations with NATO Secretary-General , Dirk Stikker, and the NATO member states' leadership, he issues a full NATO war alert at 06:50 EST (12:50 local time) in his capacity as Supreme Allied Command Europe and orders all U.S forces to wartime stations in his capacity as CINC, United States European Command. He additionally authorises the dispersing of NATO command from Paris to its wartime bunkers.
Back in D.C., Kennedy finally gets some sleep. He's had another bad morning. At 03:01 EST he received news of the successful destruction of Guantanamo and Santa Clara. Later he'd received conflicting reports from Berlin - some suggesting the Soviets were pulling back, no one was quite sure what was happening in Berlin. Later that morning, he hears of the surrender of Guantanamo Bay. He now has to deal with American Marines being held as POWs in Cuba, and potentially as human shields in the event of further attack. The press also hears news of the surrender of Guantanamo Bay and now he has the press to deal with as well. Americans are scared, they don't know whether today or tomorrow will be their last. Reports that the Soviets and Cubans are holding Americans prisoner is enough to kick off demonstrations in D.C. among those who haven't wisely decided to leave.
Up until West German and NATO mobilisation, the focus of the armed force's efforts had been Cuba. Now they had to deal with war in Europe as well. Units from the Air National Guard are federalised and deployed to Europe, many having been mobilised a year earlier during the Berlin Crisis, including the 138th Tactical Fighter Squadron from New York which was deployed to Leck Air Base in Germany. Other units deployed included the 139th Air Transport Squadron from New York, the 146th Air Transport Wing from California and the 147th Aeromedical Airflift Squadron. Other units would stay in North America such as the 151st Tactical Fighter Squadron from Tennessee which would be deployed at Homestead AFB in Florida and fly numerous missions over Cuba
The 51st Infantry Division from South Carolina was federalised and after a brief discussion abouts its deployment it was decided to send it to Europe. This was the first federal deployment the 51st would see, they were joined in Europe by other units such as the 43rd Infantry Division from New England.
The international relations environment was less unpredictable, with Canada and Western European NATO allies plus Japan supporting them and the Warsaw Pact and Chinese backing the Soviets and Cubans. The Indian government passes private support for the United States through their embassy, largely to ensure the Americans don't forget about them and their promises of support in their ongoing war with China, an important issue for Delhi in light of Mao's very public support for the Cubans and sabre-rattling rhetoric [8].
Kennedy wakes up at midday after 5 hours rest to find his deployment orders running well and the world still not ended. He's not exactly able to relax what with the ongoing war and buildup in Europe, but he is now able to function without collapsing for exhaustion. At 12:50 he summons Soviet Ambassador Dobrynin for talks.
Why was NATO mobilising? On the other side of the Iron Curtain, West German mobilisation had caught the Soviet Union unaware. They had been caught by surprise and now the west appeared to be preparing for full-scale war, to finish what the Germans had tried just twenty years earlier.
Immediately prior, at 05:01 Moscow time Khrushchev had been notified about the destruction of Guantanamo and Santa Clara. It's gone too far now, Khrushchev believes. He comes to think that the Berlin quarantine was now a mistake, and makes moves to back off from this error. At 05:28 Moscow time, he phones Marshal Yakubovsky and orders him to call off the quarantine. The Marshal splutters. Call off the quarantine? That's harder said than done with numbers of his men under attack from West German civilians. Khrushchev reiterates his order, cancel the quarantine and return to barracks and then hangs up. Yakubovsky is shocked but he does as he is told and orders units of the Soviet and East German armies to take down their sandbag fortifcations and checkpoints and return to base. This will take a number of hours, and they will have to do so under constant projectile from the people of West Berlin.
At 07:03 Moscow time, Khrushchev is alerted to the destruction of Guantanamo Bay, Soviet nuclear weapons have been used against the United States on the battlefield. He fears its to late to stop what will come.
Several hours pass before Khrushchev and the Presidium hear about West German mobilisation at 14:04 Moscow time. Why was this happening? Khrushchev starts remembering back to Stalingrad upon hearing the news. He knew what total war meant. That's what he'd spent the past several days trying to avoid, and his colleagues for that matter as well. They'd all believed that it was still possible to de-escalate the situation, every step they'd taken was supposed to bring that goal into being.
Until NATO began to prepare for war.
Barbarossa had a special meaning to citizens of the Soviet Union, destruction at the hands of an enemy bent of domination and annihilation of the Soviet people. The term came from the German invasion of 1941 which had caught the Soviet Union completely by surprise. That would not happen again. Defence Minister Marshal Rodion Yakovlevich Malinovsky warned of a second Barbarossa from the NATO mobilisation, with hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers, sailors and airmen moving themselves into wartime positions. They were claiming to support and defend West Germany, but Soviet thinking didn't believe they would just sit there, they had to attack. NATO mobilisation meant an impending NATO attack. Khrushchev is depressed by the news, and angry. He believed the crisis could have been de-escalated but now the west and the Americans had chosen to go for war. A war likely involving the use of nuclear weapons. The Soviet Union and its allied Warsaw Pact states would have to defend themselves. NATO mobilisation meant that they too would have to mobilise, perhaps even strike first to prevent that Barbarossa-esque first strike they so dreaded.
The Presidium sent out mobilisation orders of their own at 15:25 Moscow time. Marshal Anderi Antonovich Grechko receives orders at his Legnica headquarters to place all Warsaw Pact military forces on war readiness. Marshal Yakubovsky receives another phone call from Khrushchev at 15:31 Moscow time ordering him to take up position around Berlin again, and to make the whole of the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany ready for war within 36 hours.
The die was well and truly cast.
Footnotes
- [1] There was KS-1's in Cuba that the Americans never knew about in OTL. The missiles were the FKR-1 (Frontline Combat Rocket) variant, and the Soviet troops located at Holguín were commanded by Dmitry Yazov.
- [2] In line with CINCLANT OPLAN-316, the 3rd would be seven days after the 27th of October when combat operation begun.
- [3] The American death toll coming mostly from the naval war in the Atlantic and the Marines at Guantanamo Bay, Soviets deaths from the air war over Cuba and the (mostly civilian) Cuban toll coming from the atomic bombing of Guantanamo and Santa Clara.
- [4] OTL incident, Chancellor Adenauer at the time struggled to connect with President Kennedy.
- [5] The recall on the 28th happened in OTL, except for one Vulcan (Sunspot detachment) in Malta.
- [6] There are sources saying that Macmillan intended to do this on the 28th, before Khrushchev announced the withdrawal of the missiles.
- [7] Fanfani's "opening to the left" to isolate the Communist Party stayed strong during the crisis, with Pietro Nenni's Socialist Party pledging its support for the government.
- [8] Mao was supportive of the Cubans during the crisis in OTL, and Kennedy had pledged support for India in their war with China.
Sources
www.nationalww2museum.org
Comments?
- 19:00 D.C. time & Havana time (previous day)
- 00:00 London time
- 01:00 Berlin time & Bonn time
- 03:00 Moscow time
- 05:30 Delhi time
- 08:00 Beijing time
Chapter 5 – Escalation
29 – 30 October 1962
“I hold in the folds of my toga, both peace and war. Which one should I let drop?”
– Quintus Fabius Maximus
The 29th of October begins with President Kennedy wide awake. Earlier he'd been on a phone call with General Taylor, asking how soon Operation SCABBARDS - the invasion of Cuba - could be launched. This came hot on the heels of the destruction of Guantanamo Bay by three Soviet KS-1 Komet missiles, launched from Holguín Air Base [1], which had led to the fall and capitulation of the base by 23:00 EST and the capture of around 900 survivors as POWs. General Taylor had told him that SCABBARDS could be launched by the 3rd of November at the earliest - alongside the continuing air campaign [2]. By now, control of Cuban skies was near-absolute and United States Air Force and U.S. Navy strike aircraft able to operate with only Cuban anti-aircraft fire to contend with.
So far, the war had killed around 6,000 Americans, 4,500 Soviets and over 150,000 Cubans [3].
So far, there had been several opportunities for both superpowers to end the war including Khrushchev's capitulation on the 28th, however his note never arrived as American ambassador Kohler was killed in a car accident and the message was destroyed. That was the last real chance the superpowers had to back down without any more major fighting. Despite the best efforts of both leaders, fully conscious of the mistakes of 1914 and their own situation's uncanny resemblance to the July Crisis, events had now escalated beyond their ability to control. When the West German government announced mobilisation at 05:30 EST on the morning of the 29th, all-out war between East and West became inevitable.
The government in Bonn had been keeping close eyes on events in the Caribbean from the start of the crisis. Washington-Bonn relations were at a low ebb after a debacle involving leaked plans for an independent access agency for Berlin [4]. They had anticipated any Soviet aggression to come from the direction of Berlin, divided at the end of the Second World War. West German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer was skeptical of American plans to respond to a Soviet takeover of Berlin.
Despite this, the Federal Republic of Germany (commonly known as West Germany) had taken a hardline attitude during the missile crisis and the buildup to conflict - harder than the Americans as it turned out, supporting air strikes, funding rebels and even an invasion. Bonn was perhaps the most pro-American state during the initial stages of the crisis. The outbreak of war in the Caribbean temporarily drew the focus of world tension away from Central Europe, but politicians throughout the continent scrambled to react as necessary. The Americans put their strategic forces outside Europe on DEFCON 1 alert, called up all National Guard and Reservist personnel and begun preparing for a full-scale war in Cuba. The British had already mobilised their V-Bomber to "cockpit readiness" on the 27th, on the 28th they had recalled aircraft stationed abroad to return home [5] and had quietly begun to disperse government to "regional commissioners" across the United Kingdom [6]. The Italians put their own forces on alert, but did not begin overt mobilisation for war, the Italian Parliament giving strong support for the Fanfani [7] the American Jupiter missiles there being put on alert as were the ones in Turkey. Yet there wasn't mobilisation in Germany, for fears of sending the crisis uncontrollably to war.
It was an uncomfortable situation with political leaders trying hard not to signal preparations for war whilst trying to meet the needs of protecting their citizens from nuclear war - it was a complete mess and it didn't last.
On the evening of the 28th, at 20:12 local time, the West Germans had heard of the sinking of the USS Essex. Within an hour, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (Federal Intelligence Service; BND) was reporting Soviet and East German military activity around Berlin followed by American and East German gunmen exchanging fire. The politicians in Bonn watch on in horror as the world begins to fall apart around them. By the morning of the 29th, the reports of military activity appear to be receding. Was Khrushchev having a change of heart? At By 4 in the morning, Adenauer is aware of the destruction of Guantanamo and Santa Clara by the Americans. The BND spooks in West Berlin was providing unclear reports of Warsaw Pact activity in the city. Some reports were saying that the Soviets and East Germans were pulling back, others yet spoke of stones hurled by civilians at East German policemen manning checkpoints.
What finally pushed Bonn over the edge were reports that the East German government was on the verge of "preparing their country for war", they would calling up reservists and ask the Soviets for military assistance. This report came from discussions in East Berlin just as the quarantine of Berlin was being initiated, from their own fears of Western retaliation to any sealing off of Berlin.
It was an uncomfortable moment for the West German lawmakers, that their eastern neighbours may be preparing for war against them. Were they certain they were preparing for war? No, but that uncertainty played strongly on their minds. If they did nothing and the Warsaw Pact was in fact preparing for war, they'd have lost the war without a fight.
After a drawn-out cabinet meeting, the Federal Republic's government held a press conference at 11:30 local time in which they revealed the information they had concerning Soviet and East German preparation. In addition, they announced the mobilisation of the Bundeswehr and requested that their NATO allies came to their aid. They did not wish for a war, but they saw Eastern bloc actions as preparation for war and reacted to it as they believed was necessary.
President Kennedy received news of West German mobilisation at 05:40 EST. He's not happy, he's already got enough on his plate trying to sort Cuba out without provoking a wider war with the Soviet Union. To some in EXCOMM and the Joint Chiefs, it comes as a relief - at least they know who they're fighting and can prepare as such. Most of EXCOMM does not share this view. Kennedy is appalled at that sentiment, he knows he's now in an unstoppable situation. After trying so hard not to blunder into war, the war sought desperately to avoid is now unstoppable. Defense Secretary McNamara is unhappy, he also doesn't want a nuclear war, but he also has more immediate concerns - mobilisation in Europe threatens to disrupt the invasion plans for Cuba. There are over 400,000 U.S. troops across all branches stationed in Europe will need reinforcements, food and medical supplies.
The present forces in Europe are to be ordered to their wartime positions and European Command is to put on the same strategic alert as the rest of U.S forces worldwide. At 06:12 EST, General Lauris Norstad receives a war-warning from Kennedy. After brief conversations with NATO Secretary-General , Dirk Stikker, and the NATO member states' leadership, he issues a full NATO war alert at 06:50 EST (12:50 local time) in his capacity as Supreme Allied Command Europe and orders all U.S forces to wartime stations in his capacity as CINC, United States European Command. He additionally authorises the dispersing of NATO command from Paris to its wartime bunkers.
Back in D.C., Kennedy finally gets some sleep. He's had another bad morning. At 03:01 EST he received news of the successful destruction of Guantanamo and Santa Clara. Later he'd received conflicting reports from Berlin - some suggesting the Soviets were pulling back, no one was quite sure what was happening in Berlin. Later that morning, he hears of the surrender of Guantanamo Bay. He now has to deal with American Marines being held as POWs in Cuba, and potentially as human shields in the event of further attack. The press also hears news of the surrender of Guantanamo Bay and now he has the press to deal with as well. Americans are scared, they don't know whether today or tomorrow will be their last. Reports that the Soviets and Cubans are holding Americans prisoner is enough to kick off demonstrations in D.C. among those who haven't wisely decided to leave.
Up until West German and NATO mobilisation, the focus of the armed force's efforts had been Cuba. Now they had to deal with war in Europe as well. Units from the Air National Guard are federalised and deployed to Europe, many having been mobilised a year earlier during the Berlin Crisis, including the 138th Tactical Fighter Squadron from New York which was deployed to Leck Air Base in Germany. Other units deployed included the 139th Air Transport Squadron from New York, the 146th Air Transport Wing from California and the 147th Aeromedical Airflift Squadron. Other units would stay in North America such as the 151st Tactical Fighter Squadron from Tennessee which would be deployed at Homestead AFB in Florida and fly numerous missions over Cuba
The 51st Infantry Division from South Carolina was federalised and after a brief discussion abouts its deployment it was decided to send it to Europe. This was the first federal deployment the 51st would see, they were joined in Europe by other units such as the 43rd Infantry Division from New England.
The international relations environment was less unpredictable, with Canada and Western European NATO allies plus Japan supporting them and the Warsaw Pact and Chinese backing the Soviets and Cubans. The Indian government passes private support for the United States through their embassy, largely to ensure the Americans don't forget about them and their promises of support in their ongoing war with China, an important issue for Delhi in light of Mao's very public support for the Cubans and sabre-rattling rhetoric [8].
Kennedy wakes up at midday after 5 hours rest to find his deployment orders running well and the world still not ended. He's not exactly able to relax what with the ongoing war and buildup in Europe, but he is now able to function without collapsing for exhaustion. At 12:50 he summons Soviet Ambassador Dobrynin for talks.
Why was NATO mobilising? On the other side of the Iron Curtain, West German mobilisation had caught the Soviet Union unaware. They had been caught by surprise and now the west appeared to be preparing for full-scale war, to finish what the Germans had tried just twenty years earlier.
Immediately prior, at 05:01 Moscow time Khrushchev had been notified about the destruction of Guantanamo and Santa Clara. It's gone too far now, Khrushchev believes. He comes to think that the Berlin quarantine was now a mistake, and makes moves to back off from this error. At 05:28 Moscow time, he phones Marshal Yakubovsky and orders him to call off the quarantine. The Marshal splutters. Call off the quarantine? That's harder said than done with numbers of his men under attack from West German civilians. Khrushchev reiterates his order, cancel the quarantine and return to barracks and then hangs up. Yakubovsky is shocked but he does as he is told and orders units of the Soviet and East German armies to take down their sandbag fortifcations and checkpoints and return to base. This will take a number of hours, and they will have to do so under constant projectile from the people of West Berlin.
At 07:03 Moscow time, Khrushchev is alerted to the destruction of Guantanamo Bay, Soviet nuclear weapons have been used against the United States on the battlefield. He fears its to late to stop what will come.
Several hours pass before Khrushchev and the Presidium hear about West German mobilisation at 14:04 Moscow time. Why was this happening? Khrushchev starts remembering back to Stalingrad upon hearing the news. He knew what total war meant. That's what he'd spent the past several days trying to avoid, and his colleagues for that matter as well. They'd all believed that it was still possible to de-escalate the situation, every step they'd taken was supposed to bring that goal into being.
Until NATO began to prepare for war.
Barbarossa had a special meaning to citizens of the Soviet Union, destruction at the hands of an enemy bent of domination and annihilation of the Soviet people. The term came from the German invasion of 1941 which had caught the Soviet Union completely by surprise. That would not happen again. Defence Minister Marshal Rodion Yakovlevich Malinovsky warned of a second Barbarossa from the NATO mobilisation, with hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers, sailors and airmen moving themselves into wartime positions. They were claiming to support and defend West Germany, but Soviet thinking didn't believe they would just sit there, they had to attack. NATO mobilisation meant an impending NATO attack. Khrushchev is depressed by the news, and angry. He believed the crisis could have been de-escalated but now the west and the Americans had chosen to go for war. A war likely involving the use of nuclear weapons. The Soviet Union and its allied Warsaw Pact states would have to defend themselves. NATO mobilisation meant that they too would have to mobilise, perhaps even strike first to prevent that Barbarossa-esque first strike they so dreaded.
The Presidium sent out mobilisation orders of their own at 15:25 Moscow time. Marshal Anderi Antonovich Grechko receives orders at his Legnica headquarters to place all Warsaw Pact military forces on war readiness. Marshal Yakubovsky receives another phone call from Khrushchev at 15:31 Moscow time ordering him to take up position around Berlin again, and to make the whole of the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany ready for war within 36 hours.
The die was well and truly cast.
Footnotes
- [1] There was KS-1's in Cuba that the Americans never knew about in OTL. The missiles were the FKR-1 (Frontline Combat Rocket) variant, and the Soviet troops located at Holguín were commanded by Dmitry Yazov.
- [2] In line with CINCLANT OPLAN-316, the 3rd would be seven days after the 27th of October when combat operation begun.
- [3] The American death toll coming mostly from the naval war in the Atlantic and the Marines at Guantanamo Bay, Soviets deaths from the air war over Cuba and the (mostly civilian) Cuban toll coming from the atomic bombing of Guantanamo and Santa Clara.
- [4] OTL incident, Chancellor Adenauer at the time struggled to connect with President Kennedy.
- [5] The recall on the 28th happened in OTL, except for one Vulcan (Sunspot detachment) in Malta.
- [6] There are sources saying that Macmillan intended to do this on the 28th, before Khrushchev announced the withdrawal of the missiles.
- [7] Fanfani's "opening to the left" to isolate the Communist Party stayed strong during the crisis, with Pietro Nenni's Socialist Party pledging its support for the government.
- [8] Mao was supportive of the Cubans during the crisis in OTL, and Kennedy had pledged support for India in their war with China.
Sources
1962 - Cuban Missile Crisis
In 1962, when medium range ballistic missile sites were being placed in Cuba, the United States responded with a naval blockade of Cuba. the USAF response was swift and allowed President Kennedy to
www.afhistory.af.mil
Should the United States Keep Troops in Germany? | The National WWII Museum | New Orleans
How the looming Cold War convinced Americans to keep troops in Europe after the war.
Comments?
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Good what a tragedy. The rising tension is thick enough to cut with a knife, I love it. And it's a nice departure from so many other cuba TLs that have that plot beat of "Khrushchev tried to de-escalate and gets couped by hardliners that suicide against NATO nukes". Well, the hardliners still are causing trouble here, with their conviction that NATO mobilization = impending Barbarossa 2.0. The only way I see this being salvaged is if Khrushchev orders the army, though mobilized, to remain on a defensive stance and manages to prevent a first strike.
I’ve always disliked the Khrushchev gets ousted plot line because he always acted with the Presidium during the crisis in OTL, even with the “first letter” to Kennedy.
1962 was just over twenty years since Barbarossa, the hardliners are set in their convictions of it happening again but I think anyone else in the Soviet Union would have thought the same.
There’s an old staying about the best form of defence…
De Gaulle had telephoned Kennedy to say that France, headquarters of SHAPE (I read stories about the Cuban crisis where NATO HQ was located in Belgium), would stand alongside its allies if the worst was coming.
In 1962, the last year of the Algerian War, the French army, the largest in terms of NATO personnel in Europe, had a total strength of 1,027,807 men, i.e.:
* 721,102 men for the army
* 139,873 men for the air force
* 78,506 men for the national navy
* 85,132 men for the national gendarmerie and common services
Of these 1,027,807 men, 441,346 men are stationed in Algeria, mainly light infantry and airborne/airmobile troops.
If we allow time to mobilize without massive nuclear attacks, we double the numbers.
In 1962, the last year of the Algerian War, the French army, the largest in terms of NATO personnel in Europe, had a total strength of 1,027,807 men, i.e.:
* 721,102 men for the army
* 139,873 men for the air force
* 78,506 men for the national navy
* 85,132 men for the national gendarmerie and common services
Of these 1,027,807 men, 441,346 men are stationed in Algeria, mainly light infantry and airborne/airmobile troops.
If we allow time to mobilize without massive nuclear attacks, we double the numbers.
Chapter 6 – Preparation
This chapter isn't as detailed as other recent ones. This one is more of an interlude before the next few where things gets really hot.
Important Timezones:
- 19:00 D.C. time & Havana time (previous day)
- 00:00 London time
- 01:00 Berlin time & Bonn time
- 03:00 Moscow time
- 05:30 Delhi time
- 08:00 Beijing time
As the sun rose on the morning of the 30th of October 1962, the U.S. government continued their mobilisation plans. The U.S. Navy was ferrying both men and supplies across the Atlantic Ocean to Europe, combatting Soviet submarines in a similar undeclared fashion as they had done against the Kriegsmarine in 1941, combat aircraft from the Navy and Air Force were pounding Cuban and Soviet positions and Strategic Air Command continued to wait, ready to carry out strike operations from their bases in the Continental United States and the United Kingdom.
The undeclared war was already taking its toll on President Kennedy. His heath was never in the strongest state at the best of times, but now he was in agony as his Addison's disease left him fatigued and his back stung like he was being stabbed [1]. It had now reached a point where the President was conducting affairs from his bed when not meeting with EXCOMM.
The war in Cuba had settled into a familiar pattern as American strike aircraft pounded Cuban targets, then were fired upon by anti-air flak and the occasional surviving MiG before returning home, often to have damage repaired. By the 30th, all SAM sites had been destroyed and the remaining SS-4s were being constantly moved around by night to avoid destruction. They were what remained of the strategic nuclear weapons to be launched at the United States in the event of an invasion.
At 09:06 EST, Kennedy receives news from the Pentagon of the sinking of a U.S. destroyer, the USS Leary, off the coast of Great Inagua island in the British Bahamas. The Leary gained the unfortunate award for being the first ship to be sunk by another ship using guided missiles as two Soviet P-15 Termit missiles struck through the hull and exploded - taking the ship down along with around 210 of its crew. The American response came later that afternoon as the port of Bares, where the attacking Komar boat had been based, was hit by two F-105 Thunderchief fighters carrying napalm bombs. Much of the port area of Bares was incinerated along with any people in the area.
By midday, Kennedy's conference with the Joint Chiefs, key members of EXCOMM and other military advisers concludes. As fighting in the Caribbean continued unabated, the U.S. military has to dedicate massive amounts of resources to preparing for war in Europe - within a week the American forces there would be ready. Surveillance reports from the Warsaw Pact showed that the Eastern bloc nations were also calling up reservists, the Poles had begun deploying to East Germany and West Berlin was undeniably surrounded and cut off. There aren't many other bright spots around the rest of the world with flashpoints in Asia as Mao's China continues to put out aggressive statements in support of the Cubans. Additionally regarding China, the Indian Air Force organised a minor air raid on a Chinese air base in Gonggar - largely to show the Americans that they would continue to resist the People's Liberation Army in the Himalayas [2]. Reality was starting to hit home. This would become a world war, assuming it wasn't one already.
Across the major cities of the United States and other Western nations, a series of impromptu peace demonstrations took place. Some of these were political in nature, other religious, others still were more personal in nature. In Omaha, a small group of demonstrators placed flowers outside Offutt Air Force Base (SAC headquarters), in Philadelphia a group of student demonstrators gathered near Independence Hall - local law enforcement needing to be called in after the students were beset upon by a mob yelling "Commies" and "Go back to Russia!" Many though had decided to leave the cities entirely and head out to the countryside, either to stay with friends and family or to camp out until either the bombs came or it all just went away. The roads leading out of major cities were packed with one-way traffic, getting in the way of military deployments who had to transit the unused half of the freeways that usually led into the cities. For those that remained, church attendance across the nation reached unseen heights as millions looked to cleanse their souls before the end of the world sent them to their maker. Throughout all the chaos, the economy suffered dramatically. Even without the bombs, the once prosperous economy of 1960 may as well have had an A-bomb dropped on it.
Back in the White House, President Kennedy was able to see one peace vigil outside the White House. They were still there as he worked with his advisers on the next moves. As afternoon turned to evening on the 30th of October, there were no new surprises either from Cuba or from Europe. That's not to say the situation was good, SCABBARDS was now just days away and the situation in Europe was now far beyond the ability of anyone to stop. It was a long slow march into the end, getting ever louder and louder.
After further discussions with advisers and phone calls to Congress (now in West Virginia), Kennedy phones British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan at 18:12 EST - 23:12 GMT. The British have been one of the closest allies of the Americans during the crisis, British Ambassador Ormsby-Gore is now given priority meetings with the President to ensure close contact between both states. The Prime Minister is the first foreign leader to hear from Kennedy that he will launch an invasion of Cuba; his heart sinks, he knows what will come from that. He is informed by the President that a 48-hour ultimatum will be given to the Cubans at 18:00 EST tomorrow, if the demands are not met by the deadline the invasion will be launched at 05:00 EST on the 3rd of November. Kennedy inquires as to the readiness of British forces for war, including the nuclear-armed RAF bomber force.
RAF Bomber Command had long been a component of the US Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) to the extent that British officers were based at SAC HQ in Nebraska and attended all their briefings, and British bombers had been assigned over 50 targets in the Western USSR. In addition, SAC stationed a number of B-47 bombers and 60 Thor intermediate-range missiles in southern England. Ensuring that the British were ready to strike alongside the U.S. was essential.
Macmillan confirmed to Kennedy that British nuclear forces were ready to strike the Soviet Union should the need ever arise, and the British-led NATO Northern Army Group (NORTHAG) was fast preparing to resist the Warsaw Pact in Germany. The elderly PM sounded notably despondent when talking about the impending war. He was deeply worried about the possibility of nuclear war and the impact it would have on the British Isles. The UK did not have the luxury of being a continent away from the enemy and millions could be killed in under 10 minutes. Kennedy attempts to reassure Macmillan that every step is being taken to avoid further escalation, and offers thanks to him for allowing the air force to quietly set up a field hospital in the Bahamas as of yet undetected by the Cubans [3].
After hanging up at 19:23 EST, Kennedy goes to bed. His back aches and his energy levels are through the floor. He wakes at 03:30 EST on the 31st of October. Halloween, a scary enough day without the prospects of Armageddon.
At 08:12 EST he phones the Congressional leadership in their bunker beneath the Greenbrier hotel in West Virginia informing them of the ultimatum to be delivered at 18:00 that evening. Much of the rest of the day for Kennedy is preparation for the speech to be delivered that evening and anything else that could follow. Castro could launch any remaining missiles in a pre-emptive strike. Khrushchev may strike Berlin as a bargaining chip. Maybe even a general invasion of Western Europe. By 16:30 he's gained the approval of Congress and phoned the southern Governors to gauge the civil preparations in the southeast.
As the clock strikes 17:00 EST, Kennedy has been informed by the Joint Chiefs that the military is almost ready. The SAC bombers and missiles and primed to go, the air over Cuba is largely clear and the NATO buildup in Europe is almost complete. From here, most of EXCOMM evacuates for Mount Weather in Virginia, including Vice President Johnson. President Kennedy, Attorney General Robert Kennedy and Air Force Chief of Staff LeMay remain in the White House while Defence Secretary McNamara and Navy Chief of Operations Anderson stay at the Pentagon. Both bodies will operate a skeleton staff unless the crisis is resolved or Washington D.C. is evacuated. Now the President spends the remaining minutes before his televised address rehearsing his speech, written by McGeorge Bundy - his usual speechwriter Ted Sorensen unable to devise such a speech that would, as he saw it, lead to nuclear war.
As the clock neared 18:00 EST, the President took position behind the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office. The room hot tense, and very hot. Kennedy thought it was as though the hot lights and the lenses of the camera were burning into his soul.
"3, 2, 1, we're live."
The Soviet Army and its Warsaw Pact allies could theoretically mobilise many more men than NATO could. If they wished to push west, they held the advantage in numbers in any conventional war. However, the chance any war would remain conventional was so slim it was practically non-existent. That's why the Soviet government was so reluctant to order any attack - when the balloon went up the United States held THE advantage in nuclear weapons. While Khrushchev had claimed that the USSR could produce nuclear missiles 'like sausages', they had only 40 missiles and 160 mostly turboprop bombers which could reach America. They could badly bruise America but at the cost of their complete annihilation, the destruction would not be mutual.
Marshal of the Soviet Union Anderi Antonovich Grechko, the Supreme Commander of the Warsaw Pact Armed Forces was not a happy man. He too shared the belief that Western mobilisation was cover for war preparation, yet he believed the Presidium were responding too softly. He had been ordered to mobilise Eastern bloc forces under defensive orders - he was not to launch a strike. He had advocated strongly for a series of surgical strikes against West German air bases and NATO troop formations [4] only to be solidly rebuffed by Defence Minister Malinovsky.
On the home front, the Soviet government faces many of the same problems as the Americans - or in fact anywhere with large urban population centers. The Soviet railway network is overwhelmed as members of the public crowd the platforms looking for means to leaving the cities. Efforts by the state security forces to restore order results in several deaths including the deaths of 40 people in a stampede in Smolensk. Others take to walking of using horse-drawn carts to leave the cities, few Soviet citizens outside top party officials owned a car. The results are chaotic as the become clogged with refugees in scenes reminiscent of the Great Patriotic War.
At 04:12 Khrushchev and several members of the Presidium meets in the old Kuntsevo Dacha. They are a reconstituted State Defence Committee (GKO), a de-facto war cabinet with extraordinary powers to lead the Soviet Union through the crisis. An armoured train is kept aside at the nearby Molodyozhnaya station in case they need to leave suddenly. The GKO's members are Khrushchev, Anastas Mikoyan, Defence Minister Rodion Malinovsky, Foreign Minister Anderi Gromyko as well as Dmitry Ustinov, Leonid Brezhnev and Communist Party high priest Mikhail Suslov.
At 05:30 they meet again with Marshal Grechko. He's an adherent to the old tale of attack being the best form of defence. He argues fairly convincingly that the best option for the USSR is a set of pre-emptive nuclear strikes against NATO air and ground forces in Germany. Without an army or air force the imperialists would have no means of attacking East Germany. Afterward, Warsaw Pact ground forces would advance into enemy territory whilst paratroopers cleared the roads for the tanks to come. Afterward he was sure that the Americans and their allies would back down. Malinovsky berates the Marshal, was he not aware of America's overwhelming nuclear advantage? Grechko's response was that war was inevitable anyway, and it was almost certain to go nuclear very quickly. He didn't necessarily want it to happen, but he was fatalistic in his belief of atomic escalation; the USSR would be best served by striking first in such an environment [5].
Khrushchev for his part was reluctant to side with either man. He was a commissar at Stalingrad, he'd seen war in all its horrors, and that was without nuclear weapons. If he could prevent such a conflict from breaking out again he wouldn't hesitate to prevent such a thing. But if war was inevitable, surely it was better to keep the fighting away from the Motherland? Was war inevitable? If so, how could he know for certain? Such questions could better be answered by men under less pressure and with healthier sleep patterns than the men of the GKO. Grechko left the dacha to return to his Legnica command post at 08:35 Moscow time.
By 18:00 Moscow time, the GKO hears of the sinking of the USS Leary by one of their own Komar missile boats. Crewed by joint Cuban-Soviet crews, the saving grace was that the Termit missiles they fired weren't nuclear-armed.
At 00:43 Moscow time on the 31st, the GKO receives a message from Kennedy. It comes in the form of two letters, one being a transcript of Kennedy's upcoming televised address due at 02:00 Moscow time. The other is a summary of the address's key points, namely the ultimatum. Khrushchev goes white upon reading both letters.
"There will be war" he says, repeatedly, "There will be war..."
"Good evening my fellow citizens:
This evening I want to address you on the situation in Cuba and on events in Europe.
Over the last several days, events have shown that ensuring the removal of Soviet offensive nuclear weapons in Cuba has a far harder challenge that we had initially anticipated. The Soviet government and the regime of Fidel Castro in Cuba have used diplomacy as a cover to gain time and advantage. They have up to now refused to comply with our terms to withdraw all offensive missiles from Cuba. Peaceful efforts to disarm Cuba have failed because we are not dealing with peaceful men, or men acting in good faith.
Furthermore, when combined with the irrefutable proof of the presence of offensive nuclear weapons, they continued to state that there were no such weapons in Cuba, and that the military buildup on Cuba was strictly for defensive purposes. That statement was false. Since the character of that buildup was intolerable to this nation and to the other nations of this hemisphere, we resolved to prevent any further offensive weapons shipments to Cuba and to pursue patient yet unrelenting diplomatic efforts to ensure the weapons already in Cuba were promptly dismantled and withdrawn. This effort has so far failed.
On the evening of the Saturday, the 27th of October, a Soviet nuclear submarine deliberately launched a nuclear-armed torpedo at a group of American naval vessels in a deliberate and unprovoked attack. From that point on the present situation had escalated into an intolerable danger which had to be met immediately, and I ordered appropriate measures be taken to prevent further attacks against the United States and American citizens, including conventional air strikes against offensive missile sites in Cuba.
Since then, in spite of our best efforts, further Soviet nuclear weapons have been used against other United States vessels, including the aircraft carrier USS Essex, and against our base at Guantanamo Bay - which is now occupied by Cuban and Soviet soldiers. In addition, many U.S. Navy and Marine Corps personnel, since the occupation of Guantanamo Bay, are been held as captives within Cuba. Our responses to such attacks have been as limited and proportionate as is possible to be. At times, our response has included the use of our own nuclear weapons against carefully selected military targets, to undermine the ability of hostile forces in Cuba to wage war. I wish to inform the American people that they can know that at no point was the order to use these enormously destructive weapons taken frivolously.
In addition, I ordered that aerial surveillance over Cuba continue to monitor the effectiveness of our operations. The information gathered by this surveillance confirms several things. First, that large quantities of nuclear weapons, the most lethal weapons ever devised by human hands, remain on the island of Cuba. Finally, that the Castro regime is holding American POWs, captured at Guantanamo Bay, are being held in urban areas in grave violation of the Geneva Convention's provisions preventing the mistreatment of prisoners of war; another atrocity committed by an aggressive regime which already commits reckless aggressive and subversive activities against Cuba's neighbors and brutally represses the Cuban people. This regime holds a deep hatred of the United States and our way of life. This regime if armed with these most deadly weapons, weapons which have already been used against the United States, poses a clear and present danger to all nations in this Hemisphere and around the world.
Using nuclear weapons, obtained with the help of the Soviet Union, the Castro regime could at any moment launch a nuclear first strike against the American mainland, or against any other nation in the Americas within range of their missiles, and kill millions of innocent people - including American citizens. The nations of Latin America have done nothing to deserve or invite this threat, and up until now had never been subjected to the perilous fear of nuclear annihilation. Instead of drifting along into further uncontrolled disaster, we will set a course towards safety. Before it is too late to act, this danger will be removed. The United States has the sovereign authority to deploy armed force in pursuit of national security and safety. As Commander-in-Chief that duty rests on my shoulders. Recognizing the clear and present danger to our nation, the Congress voted overwhelmingly to approve the use of force to remove the threat posed by these weapons in Cuba if it became necessary.
Throughout the present crisis, we acted through the United nations to try and resolve the matter peacefully. The United Nations was set up in the aftermath of the last world war to confront aggression early and decisively and to prevent such disturbances to the peace from spiraling into global war, a task more necessary today than it was in 1945 given the even greater potential for destruction and devastation posed by nuclear weapons. We posed the matter in the UN's Security Council, providing irrefutable proof of the offensive buildup of nuclear weapons in Cuba, contrary to the deceptions provided by Soviet diplomats and lawmakers. Yet in recent days, the Soviet Union - a permanent member of the Security Council - has publicly vowed to veto any resolution that compels the dismantling and disarmament of offensive weapons in Cuba. The Soviet government shares our view of the danger, yet they wish to exploit it to their advantage and their reckless conduct has pushed the world closer to the point of no return. Though the Soviet government's intransigence has paralyzed the Security Council, preventing it from upholding its obligations, we will rise to ours. Many other nations understand the consequences of reckless and aggressive conduct in the Atomic Age and have resolved to meet them with great fortitude, including the government of Venezuela which in the last several days has committed naval vessels to supporting our quarantine effort in the western Atlantic.
As may be expected, it is possible that any further conflict may spread beyond the Caribbean and Western Atlantic. U.S. military installations and forces worldwide have been placed on high alert as a precautionary measure to deter any aggression by hostile forces.
In Europe, in response to increased communist military activity in Eastern Europe and Berlin, the West German government requested assistance from their NATO allies, including the United State, in defense of their nation. All members of that alliance re fulfilling their obligations as per the North Atlantic Treaty of 1949. We and our European allies are prepared to deter and if necessary defeat any aggression in Europe, though I wish to inform the Soviet government and the governments of Eastern Europe that our deployments in Europe are of a strictly defensive nature. Under no circumstances will the United States or our NATO allies undertake preemptive offensive operations in Europe. Nevertheless, we are prepared to meet any aggressor and ensure they pose no threat to us in future.
In recent days, many Latin American governments have played an important role of their own in relaying messages to Fidel Castro urging him to turn back from the perilous course he and his regime have placed his country in, so that disarmament can proceed peacefully. So far, these efforts have failed and Fidel Castro has declared his communist dictatorship to be at war with the United States, making public threats against the lives of Americans. That was enough. All the years of deceit, cruelty and terror have now reached their conclusion.
Acting under the authority entrusted to me by the Constitution as endorsed by resolution of the Congress, I have transmitted the following terms to the leaders of Cuba and the Soviet Union:
First. Any and all offensive Soviet equipment and hardware must be dismantled and withdrawn from Cuba under the international supervision of the United Nations. This includes all kinds of nuclear weapons, including medium- and intermediate range ballistic missiles as well as cruise missiles and bombers.
Second. All Soviet military personnel must leave Cuba immediately. This includes both ground troops and technical personnel.
Third. Soviet and Cuban forces presently occupying Guantanamo Bay must withdraw and return the territory to the United States; all American personnel in Cuba must be released and returned to the United States immediately.
Fourth and finally. Recognizing that the present regime in Cuba constitutes a grave and intolerable threat to the peace of the Western Hemisphere and of the world, Fidel Castro and his brother Raúl must step down from power and leave Cuba permanently.
These terms were transmitted to both governments at 17:45 Eastern Standard Time and must be accepted within 48 hours. Their refusal to do so will result in a military conflict in the Caribbean region, commenced at a time of our choosing. For their own safety, all foreign nationals should leave Cuba immediately including journalists and diplomats.
Under the Charter of the United Nations, we are asking that an emergency meeting of the Security Council be invoked immediately to resolve this threat before any further use of force becomes necessary.
I dedicate the following message to the Cuban people. If we must conduct a military campaign, it will be directed against the brutal regime which represses your country, and not you. As their instruments of tyranny and terror are torn down, the United States of America will aid in the building of a new Cuba. A peaceful, democratic and prosperous Cuba which will be a shining example to the whole of the Western Hemisphere, and in which there be no secret police, no torture chambers and no foreign nuclear weapons. It is too late for Fidel Castro to remain in power, but it is not too late for you or your country to take its place in the global community of nations.
To the Cuban and Soviet militaries, I urge you to preserve your honor and your lives by permitting the peaceful entry of United States forces into Cuba to secure nuclear weapons sites. I urge you not to fight for a cause that is not worth your life, and to heed the following warning:
In the event of conflict, do not obey any orders to use nuclear weapons against anyone. Such action will bring immediate and devastating consequences and it will be no defense to say 'I was just following orders.' Do not destroy oil refineries or agricultural land, sources of wealth which belong to the Cuban people. Should conflict come, the American people and the world should know that we have taken every reasonable measure to avoid war, and that now we will take every measure to ensure the vindication of what is right. If our terms are not met, hostile forces in Cuba will remain foes until they are defeated.
I must warn the American people that it is possible that long-range nuclear weapons may be launched from the island of Cuba against the American mainland in an attempt to distract us with fear and devastation. They would fail. In my address of October 22nd, I stated clearly that - and i quote - "It shall be the policy of this nation to regard any nuclear missile launched from Cuba against any nation in the Western Hemisphere as an attack by the Soviet Union on the United States, requiring a full retaliatory response upon the Soviet Union." That policy is still in effect. Though these attacks are not inevitable, they are possible; they underscore the reason the reason why we cannot tolerate the clear and present danger posed by these missiles. The threat to world peace will be decreased the minute Cuba is liberated and the missiles are disarmed.
In order to meet the potential for nuclear attack, I have ordered that civil defense contingency plans be put into effect to protect our nation. In recent days, individuals believed to have ties to communist intelligence agencies have been detained. Among other measures, I have ordered increased security at our military bases and airports, and increased Coast Guard patrols at our major seaports. No further action of theirs can shake or resolve the resolve of this government and of this nation, in acting in defense of itself and its allies in this Hemisphere. We are a nation which is opposed to war, but we are not a fragile nation which will be intimidated by nuclear blackmail. If the enemy attempts to strike our nation, they will face grave consequences.
We are acting now because the threat of inaction would be too great to bear. We will not accept peace at the expense of freedom, which would be tantamount to surrender, in this Hemisphere or anywhere else in the world. We hope and pray that any further use of force is not required. If it is required, then we shall not shrink from our duties and we will meet the dangers whatever the cost.
God bless you all, and God bless the United States of America.
Thank you." [6]
Footnotes
- [1] JFK's health was fragile throughout his whole life. Had he survived Dallas in OTL, I think he'd be lucky to last 10 more years.
- [2] Neither China nor India used their air forces in the Sino-Indian War (occurring concurrently with the Cuban Missile Crisis). The attack on Gonggar here was a symbolic move by India to remind the world of their own struggle - particularly to attract American attention given their promises of support for India.
- [3] Set up on the 28th of October ITTL. This didn't happen in OTL.
- [4] Grechko advocated doing something similar to China in 1969 in OTL. Brezhnev ignored him.
- [5] Malinovsky was a firm believer that strategic nuclear weapons should be instruments of deterrence and posturing rather than a weapon system to actually be used.
- [6] Inspiration taken from JFK's OTL Cuba speech, Bush Sr's Panama speech and Dubya's 2003 Iraq speech.
Sources
www.history.com
nsarchive.gwu.edu
Comments?
Important Timezones:
- 19:00 D.C. time & Havana time (previous day)
- 00:00 London time
- 01:00 Berlin time & Bonn time
- 03:00 Moscow time
- 05:30 Delhi time
- 08:00 Beijing time
Chapter 6 – Preparation
30 – 31 October 1962
“I have participated in two wars and know that war ends when it has rolled through cities and villages, everywhere sowing death and destruction. For such is the logic of war. If people do not display wisdom, they will clash like blind moles and then mutual annihilation will commence...”
– Nikita Sergeyevich Khrushchev
As the sun rose on the morning of the 30th of October 1962, the U.S. government continued their mobilisation plans. The U.S. Navy was ferrying both men and supplies across the Atlantic Ocean to Europe, combatting Soviet submarines in a similar undeclared fashion as they had done against the Kriegsmarine in 1941, combat aircraft from the Navy and Air Force were pounding Cuban and Soviet positions and Strategic Air Command continued to wait, ready to carry out strike operations from their bases in the Continental United States and the United Kingdom.
The undeclared war was already taking its toll on President Kennedy. His heath was never in the strongest state at the best of times, but now he was in agony as his Addison's disease left him fatigued and his back stung like he was being stabbed [1]. It had now reached a point where the President was conducting affairs from his bed when not meeting with EXCOMM.
The war in Cuba had settled into a familiar pattern as American strike aircraft pounded Cuban targets, then were fired upon by anti-air flak and the occasional surviving MiG before returning home, often to have damage repaired. By the 30th, all SAM sites had been destroyed and the remaining SS-4s were being constantly moved around by night to avoid destruction. They were what remained of the strategic nuclear weapons to be launched at the United States in the event of an invasion.
At 09:06 EST, Kennedy receives news from the Pentagon of the sinking of a U.S. destroyer, the USS Leary, off the coast of Great Inagua island in the British Bahamas. The Leary gained the unfortunate award for being the first ship to be sunk by another ship using guided missiles as two Soviet P-15 Termit missiles struck through the hull and exploded - taking the ship down along with around 210 of its crew. The American response came later that afternoon as the port of Bares, where the attacking Komar boat had been based, was hit by two F-105 Thunderchief fighters carrying napalm bombs. Much of the port area of Bares was incinerated along with any people in the area.
By midday, Kennedy's conference with the Joint Chiefs, key members of EXCOMM and other military advisers concludes. As fighting in the Caribbean continued unabated, the U.S. military has to dedicate massive amounts of resources to preparing for war in Europe - within a week the American forces there would be ready. Surveillance reports from the Warsaw Pact showed that the Eastern bloc nations were also calling up reservists, the Poles had begun deploying to East Germany and West Berlin was undeniably surrounded and cut off. There aren't many other bright spots around the rest of the world with flashpoints in Asia as Mao's China continues to put out aggressive statements in support of the Cubans. Additionally regarding China, the Indian Air Force organised a minor air raid on a Chinese air base in Gonggar - largely to show the Americans that they would continue to resist the People's Liberation Army in the Himalayas [2]. Reality was starting to hit home. This would become a world war, assuming it wasn't one already.
Across the major cities of the United States and other Western nations, a series of impromptu peace demonstrations took place. Some of these were political in nature, other religious, others still were more personal in nature. In Omaha, a small group of demonstrators placed flowers outside Offutt Air Force Base (SAC headquarters), in Philadelphia a group of student demonstrators gathered near Independence Hall - local law enforcement needing to be called in after the students were beset upon by a mob yelling "Commies" and "Go back to Russia!" Many though had decided to leave the cities entirely and head out to the countryside, either to stay with friends and family or to camp out until either the bombs came or it all just went away. The roads leading out of major cities were packed with one-way traffic, getting in the way of military deployments who had to transit the unused half of the freeways that usually led into the cities. For those that remained, church attendance across the nation reached unseen heights as millions looked to cleanse their souls before the end of the world sent them to their maker. Throughout all the chaos, the economy suffered dramatically. Even without the bombs, the once prosperous economy of 1960 may as well have had an A-bomb dropped on it.
Back in the White House, President Kennedy was able to see one peace vigil outside the White House. They were still there as he worked with his advisers on the next moves. As afternoon turned to evening on the 30th of October, there were no new surprises either from Cuba or from Europe. That's not to say the situation was good, SCABBARDS was now just days away and the situation in Europe was now far beyond the ability of anyone to stop. It was a long slow march into the end, getting ever louder and louder.
After further discussions with advisers and phone calls to Congress (now in West Virginia), Kennedy phones British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan at 18:12 EST - 23:12 GMT. The British have been one of the closest allies of the Americans during the crisis, British Ambassador Ormsby-Gore is now given priority meetings with the President to ensure close contact between both states. The Prime Minister is the first foreign leader to hear from Kennedy that he will launch an invasion of Cuba; his heart sinks, he knows what will come from that. He is informed by the President that a 48-hour ultimatum will be given to the Cubans at 18:00 EST tomorrow, if the demands are not met by the deadline the invasion will be launched at 05:00 EST on the 3rd of November. Kennedy inquires as to the readiness of British forces for war, including the nuclear-armed RAF bomber force.
RAF Bomber Command had long been a component of the US Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) to the extent that British officers were based at SAC HQ in Nebraska and attended all their briefings, and British bombers had been assigned over 50 targets in the Western USSR. In addition, SAC stationed a number of B-47 bombers and 60 Thor intermediate-range missiles in southern England. Ensuring that the British were ready to strike alongside the U.S. was essential.
Macmillan confirmed to Kennedy that British nuclear forces were ready to strike the Soviet Union should the need ever arise, and the British-led NATO Northern Army Group (NORTHAG) was fast preparing to resist the Warsaw Pact in Germany. The elderly PM sounded notably despondent when talking about the impending war. He was deeply worried about the possibility of nuclear war and the impact it would have on the British Isles. The UK did not have the luxury of being a continent away from the enemy and millions could be killed in under 10 minutes. Kennedy attempts to reassure Macmillan that every step is being taken to avoid further escalation, and offers thanks to him for allowing the air force to quietly set up a field hospital in the Bahamas as of yet undetected by the Cubans [3].
After hanging up at 19:23 EST, Kennedy goes to bed. His back aches and his energy levels are through the floor. He wakes at 03:30 EST on the 31st of October. Halloween, a scary enough day without the prospects of Armageddon.
At 08:12 EST he phones the Congressional leadership in their bunker beneath the Greenbrier hotel in West Virginia informing them of the ultimatum to be delivered at 18:00 that evening. Much of the rest of the day for Kennedy is preparation for the speech to be delivered that evening and anything else that could follow. Castro could launch any remaining missiles in a pre-emptive strike. Khrushchev may strike Berlin as a bargaining chip. Maybe even a general invasion of Western Europe. By 16:30 he's gained the approval of Congress and phoned the southern Governors to gauge the civil preparations in the southeast.
As the clock strikes 17:00 EST, Kennedy has been informed by the Joint Chiefs that the military is almost ready. The SAC bombers and missiles and primed to go, the air over Cuba is largely clear and the NATO buildup in Europe is almost complete. From here, most of EXCOMM evacuates for Mount Weather in Virginia, including Vice President Johnson. President Kennedy, Attorney General Robert Kennedy and Air Force Chief of Staff LeMay remain in the White House while Defence Secretary McNamara and Navy Chief of Operations Anderson stay at the Pentagon. Both bodies will operate a skeleton staff unless the crisis is resolved or Washington D.C. is evacuated. Now the President spends the remaining minutes before his televised address rehearsing his speech, written by McGeorge Bundy - his usual speechwriter Ted Sorensen unable to devise such a speech that would, as he saw it, lead to nuclear war.
As the clock neared 18:00 EST, the President took position behind the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office. The room hot tense, and very hot. Kennedy thought it was as though the hot lights and the lenses of the camera were burning into his soul.
"3, 2, 1, we're live."
The Soviet Army and its Warsaw Pact allies could theoretically mobilise many more men than NATO could. If they wished to push west, they held the advantage in numbers in any conventional war. However, the chance any war would remain conventional was so slim it was practically non-existent. That's why the Soviet government was so reluctant to order any attack - when the balloon went up the United States held THE advantage in nuclear weapons. While Khrushchev had claimed that the USSR could produce nuclear missiles 'like sausages', they had only 40 missiles and 160 mostly turboprop bombers which could reach America. They could badly bruise America but at the cost of their complete annihilation, the destruction would not be mutual.
Marshal of the Soviet Union Anderi Antonovich Grechko, the Supreme Commander of the Warsaw Pact Armed Forces was not a happy man. He too shared the belief that Western mobilisation was cover for war preparation, yet he believed the Presidium were responding too softly. He had been ordered to mobilise Eastern bloc forces under defensive orders - he was not to launch a strike. He had advocated strongly for a series of surgical strikes against West German air bases and NATO troop formations [4] only to be solidly rebuffed by Defence Minister Malinovsky.
On the home front, the Soviet government faces many of the same problems as the Americans - or in fact anywhere with large urban population centers. The Soviet railway network is overwhelmed as members of the public crowd the platforms looking for means to leaving the cities. Efforts by the state security forces to restore order results in several deaths including the deaths of 40 people in a stampede in Smolensk. Others take to walking of using horse-drawn carts to leave the cities, few Soviet citizens outside top party officials owned a car. The results are chaotic as the become clogged with refugees in scenes reminiscent of the Great Patriotic War.
At 04:12 Khrushchev and several members of the Presidium meets in the old Kuntsevo Dacha. They are a reconstituted State Defence Committee (GKO), a de-facto war cabinet with extraordinary powers to lead the Soviet Union through the crisis. An armoured train is kept aside at the nearby Molodyozhnaya station in case they need to leave suddenly. The GKO's members are Khrushchev, Anastas Mikoyan, Defence Minister Rodion Malinovsky, Foreign Minister Anderi Gromyko as well as Dmitry Ustinov, Leonid Brezhnev and Communist Party high priest Mikhail Suslov.
At 05:30 they meet again with Marshal Grechko. He's an adherent to the old tale of attack being the best form of defence. He argues fairly convincingly that the best option for the USSR is a set of pre-emptive nuclear strikes against NATO air and ground forces in Germany. Without an army or air force the imperialists would have no means of attacking East Germany. Afterward, Warsaw Pact ground forces would advance into enemy territory whilst paratroopers cleared the roads for the tanks to come. Afterward he was sure that the Americans and their allies would back down. Malinovsky berates the Marshal, was he not aware of America's overwhelming nuclear advantage? Grechko's response was that war was inevitable anyway, and it was almost certain to go nuclear very quickly. He didn't necessarily want it to happen, but he was fatalistic in his belief of atomic escalation; the USSR would be best served by striking first in such an environment [5].
Khrushchev for his part was reluctant to side with either man. He was a commissar at Stalingrad, he'd seen war in all its horrors, and that was without nuclear weapons. If he could prevent such a conflict from breaking out again he wouldn't hesitate to prevent such a thing. But if war was inevitable, surely it was better to keep the fighting away from the Motherland? Was war inevitable? If so, how could he know for certain? Such questions could better be answered by men under less pressure and with healthier sleep patterns than the men of the GKO. Grechko left the dacha to return to his Legnica command post at 08:35 Moscow time.
By 18:00 Moscow time, the GKO hears of the sinking of the USS Leary by one of their own Komar missile boats. Crewed by joint Cuban-Soviet crews, the saving grace was that the Termit missiles they fired weren't nuclear-armed.
At 00:43 Moscow time on the 31st, the GKO receives a message from Kennedy. It comes in the form of two letters, one being a transcript of Kennedy's upcoming televised address due at 02:00 Moscow time. The other is a summary of the address's key points, namely the ultimatum. Khrushchev goes white upon reading both letters.
"There will be war" he says, repeatedly, "There will be war..."
"Good evening my fellow citizens:
This evening I want to address you on the situation in Cuba and on events in Europe.
Over the last several days, events have shown that ensuring the removal of Soviet offensive nuclear weapons in Cuba has a far harder challenge that we had initially anticipated. The Soviet government and the regime of Fidel Castro in Cuba have used diplomacy as a cover to gain time and advantage. They have up to now refused to comply with our terms to withdraw all offensive missiles from Cuba. Peaceful efforts to disarm Cuba have failed because we are not dealing with peaceful men, or men acting in good faith.
Furthermore, when combined with the irrefutable proof of the presence of offensive nuclear weapons, they continued to state that there were no such weapons in Cuba, and that the military buildup on Cuba was strictly for defensive purposes. That statement was false. Since the character of that buildup was intolerable to this nation and to the other nations of this hemisphere, we resolved to prevent any further offensive weapons shipments to Cuba and to pursue patient yet unrelenting diplomatic efforts to ensure the weapons already in Cuba were promptly dismantled and withdrawn. This effort has so far failed.
On the evening of the Saturday, the 27th of October, a Soviet nuclear submarine deliberately launched a nuclear-armed torpedo at a group of American naval vessels in a deliberate and unprovoked attack. From that point on the present situation had escalated into an intolerable danger which had to be met immediately, and I ordered appropriate measures be taken to prevent further attacks against the United States and American citizens, including conventional air strikes against offensive missile sites in Cuba.
Since then, in spite of our best efforts, further Soviet nuclear weapons have been used against other United States vessels, including the aircraft carrier USS Essex, and against our base at Guantanamo Bay - which is now occupied by Cuban and Soviet soldiers. In addition, many U.S. Navy and Marine Corps personnel, since the occupation of Guantanamo Bay, are been held as captives within Cuba. Our responses to such attacks have been as limited and proportionate as is possible to be. At times, our response has included the use of our own nuclear weapons against carefully selected military targets, to undermine the ability of hostile forces in Cuba to wage war. I wish to inform the American people that they can know that at no point was the order to use these enormously destructive weapons taken frivolously.
In addition, I ordered that aerial surveillance over Cuba continue to monitor the effectiveness of our operations. The information gathered by this surveillance confirms several things. First, that large quantities of nuclear weapons, the most lethal weapons ever devised by human hands, remain on the island of Cuba. Finally, that the Castro regime is holding American POWs, captured at Guantanamo Bay, are being held in urban areas in grave violation of the Geneva Convention's provisions preventing the mistreatment of prisoners of war; another atrocity committed by an aggressive regime which already commits reckless aggressive and subversive activities against Cuba's neighbors and brutally represses the Cuban people. This regime holds a deep hatred of the United States and our way of life. This regime if armed with these most deadly weapons, weapons which have already been used against the United States, poses a clear and present danger to all nations in this Hemisphere and around the world.
Using nuclear weapons, obtained with the help of the Soviet Union, the Castro regime could at any moment launch a nuclear first strike against the American mainland, or against any other nation in the Americas within range of their missiles, and kill millions of innocent people - including American citizens. The nations of Latin America have done nothing to deserve or invite this threat, and up until now had never been subjected to the perilous fear of nuclear annihilation. Instead of drifting along into further uncontrolled disaster, we will set a course towards safety. Before it is too late to act, this danger will be removed. The United States has the sovereign authority to deploy armed force in pursuit of national security and safety. As Commander-in-Chief that duty rests on my shoulders. Recognizing the clear and present danger to our nation, the Congress voted overwhelmingly to approve the use of force to remove the threat posed by these weapons in Cuba if it became necessary.
Throughout the present crisis, we acted through the United nations to try and resolve the matter peacefully. The United Nations was set up in the aftermath of the last world war to confront aggression early and decisively and to prevent such disturbances to the peace from spiraling into global war, a task more necessary today than it was in 1945 given the even greater potential for destruction and devastation posed by nuclear weapons. We posed the matter in the UN's Security Council, providing irrefutable proof of the offensive buildup of nuclear weapons in Cuba, contrary to the deceptions provided by Soviet diplomats and lawmakers. Yet in recent days, the Soviet Union - a permanent member of the Security Council - has publicly vowed to veto any resolution that compels the dismantling and disarmament of offensive weapons in Cuba. The Soviet government shares our view of the danger, yet they wish to exploit it to their advantage and their reckless conduct has pushed the world closer to the point of no return. Though the Soviet government's intransigence has paralyzed the Security Council, preventing it from upholding its obligations, we will rise to ours. Many other nations understand the consequences of reckless and aggressive conduct in the Atomic Age and have resolved to meet them with great fortitude, including the government of Venezuela which in the last several days has committed naval vessels to supporting our quarantine effort in the western Atlantic.
As may be expected, it is possible that any further conflict may spread beyond the Caribbean and Western Atlantic. U.S. military installations and forces worldwide have been placed on high alert as a precautionary measure to deter any aggression by hostile forces.
In Europe, in response to increased communist military activity in Eastern Europe and Berlin, the West German government requested assistance from their NATO allies, including the United State, in defense of their nation. All members of that alliance re fulfilling their obligations as per the North Atlantic Treaty of 1949. We and our European allies are prepared to deter and if necessary defeat any aggression in Europe, though I wish to inform the Soviet government and the governments of Eastern Europe that our deployments in Europe are of a strictly defensive nature. Under no circumstances will the United States or our NATO allies undertake preemptive offensive operations in Europe. Nevertheless, we are prepared to meet any aggressor and ensure they pose no threat to us in future.
In recent days, many Latin American governments have played an important role of their own in relaying messages to Fidel Castro urging him to turn back from the perilous course he and his regime have placed his country in, so that disarmament can proceed peacefully. So far, these efforts have failed and Fidel Castro has declared his communist dictatorship to be at war with the United States, making public threats against the lives of Americans. That was enough. All the years of deceit, cruelty and terror have now reached their conclusion.
Acting under the authority entrusted to me by the Constitution as endorsed by resolution of the Congress, I have transmitted the following terms to the leaders of Cuba and the Soviet Union:
First. Any and all offensive Soviet equipment and hardware must be dismantled and withdrawn from Cuba under the international supervision of the United Nations. This includes all kinds of nuclear weapons, including medium- and intermediate range ballistic missiles as well as cruise missiles and bombers.
Second. All Soviet military personnel must leave Cuba immediately. This includes both ground troops and technical personnel.
Third. Soviet and Cuban forces presently occupying Guantanamo Bay must withdraw and return the territory to the United States; all American personnel in Cuba must be released and returned to the United States immediately.
Fourth and finally. Recognizing that the present regime in Cuba constitutes a grave and intolerable threat to the peace of the Western Hemisphere and of the world, Fidel Castro and his brother Raúl must step down from power and leave Cuba permanently.
These terms were transmitted to both governments at 17:45 Eastern Standard Time and must be accepted within 48 hours. Their refusal to do so will result in a military conflict in the Caribbean region, commenced at a time of our choosing. For their own safety, all foreign nationals should leave Cuba immediately including journalists and diplomats.
Under the Charter of the United Nations, we are asking that an emergency meeting of the Security Council be invoked immediately to resolve this threat before any further use of force becomes necessary.
I dedicate the following message to the Cuban people. If we must conduct a military campaign, it will be directed against the brutal regime which represses your country, and not you. As their instruments of tyranny and terror are torn down, the United States of America will aid in the building of a new Cuba. A peaceful, democratic and prosperous Cuba which will be a shining example to the whole of the Western Hemisphere, and in which there be no secret police, no torture chambers and no foreign nuclear weapons. It is too late for Fidel Castro to remain in power, but it is not too late for you or your country to take its place in the global community of nations.
To the Cuban and Soviet militaries, I urge you to preserve your honor and your lives by permitting the peaceful entry of United States forces into Cuba to secure nuclear weapons sites. I urge you not to fight for a cause that is not worth your life, and to heed the following warning:
In the event of conflict, do not obey any orders to use nuclear weapons against anyone. Such action will bring immediate and devastating consequences and it will be no defense to say 'I was just following orders.' Do not destroy oil refineries or agricultural land, sources of wealth which belong to the Cuban people. Should conflict come, the American people and the world should know that we have taken every reasonable measure to avoid war, and that now we will take every measure to ensure the vindication of what is right. If our terms are not met, hostile forces in Cuba will remain foes until they are defeated.
I must warn the American people that it is possible that long-range nuclear weapons may be launched from the island of Cuba against the American mainland in an attempt to distract us with fear and devastation. They would fail. In my address of October 22nd, I stated clearly that - and i quote - "It shall be the policy of this nation to regard any nuclear missile launched from Cuba against any nation in the Western Hemisphere as an attack by the Soviet Union on the United States, requiring a full retaliatory response upon the Soviet Union." That policy is still in effect. Though these attacks are not inevitable, they are possible; they underscore the reason the reason why we cannot tolerate the clear and present danger posed by these missiles. The threat to world peace will be decreased the minute Cuba is liberated and the missiles are disarmed.
In order to meet the potential for nuclear attack, I have ordered that civil defense contingency plans be put into effect to protect our nation. In recent days, individuals believed to have ties to communist intelligence agencies have been detained. Among other measures, I have ordered increased security at our military bases and airports, and increased Coast Guard patrols at our major seaports. No further action of theirs can shake or resolve the resolve of this government and of this nation, in acting in defense of itself and its allies in this Hemisphere. We are a nation which is opposed to war, but we are not a fragile nation which will be intimidated by nuclear blackmail. If the enemy attempts to strike our nation, they will face grave consequences.
We are acting now because the threat of inaction would be too great to bear. We will not accept peace at the expense of freedom, which would be tantamount to surrender, in this Hemisphere or anywhere else in the world. We hope and pray that any further use of force is not required. If it is required, then we shall not shrink from our duties and we will meet the dangers whatever the cost.
God bless you all, and God bless the United States of America.
Thank you." [6]
Footnotes
- [1] JFK's health was fragile throughout his whole life. Had he survived Dallas in OTL, I think he'd be lucky to last 10 more years.
- [2] Neither China nor India used their air forces in the Sino-Indian War (occurring concurrently with the Cuban Missile Crisis). The attack on Gonggar here was a symbolic move by India to remind the world of their own struggle - particularly to attract American attention given their promises of support for India.
- [3] Set up on the 28th of October ITTL. This didn't happen in OTL.
- [4] Grechko advocated doing something similar to China in 1969 in OTL. Brezhnev ignored him.
- [5] Malinovsky was a firm believer that strategic nuclear weapons should be instruments of deterrence and posturing rather than a weapon system to actually be used.
- [6] Inspiration taken from JFK's OTL Cuba speech, Bush Sr's Panama speech and Dubya's 2003 Iraq speech.
Sources
The Health Problems JFK Hid From the Public | HISTORY
From regular infections to excruciating back pain, JFK contended with a range of ailments before and during his time in the White House.
www.history.com
The Cuban Missile Crisis @ 60 Briefing NATO Allies | National Security Archive
Washington, D.C., October 21, 2022 - President John F. Kennedy made unilateral decisions to blockade Cuba and approve other military moves, but winning the support of European allies remained central to U.S. policy during the Cuban Missile Crisis, according to declassified records of briefings...
nsarchive.gwu.edu
Comments?
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One typo - The United States was founded after 1945 - unless that's a sign of Kennedy making a slip on TV under the pressure?
Smoke 'em if you've got 'em, it's nearly showtime...
Smoke 'em if you've got 'em, it's nearly showtime...
I gotta say, this has quickly become my favorite Cuban Missile War TL. There's no "Khrushchev gets couped by hardliners" and US nuclear superiority is actually acknowledged. Keep it up!
Chapter 7 – Duck and Cover
Important Timezones:
- 19:00 D.C. time & Havana time (previous day)
- 00:00 London time
- 01:00 Berlin time & Bonn time
- 03:00 Moscow time
- 05:30 Delhi time
- 08:00 Beijing time
Was this the end of the world? All over the globe, millions were wondering the same thing. Kennedy's ultimatum was where the war began to speed up, the world began to boil.
At 09:10 EST, Kennedy meets with Secretary of Defense McNamara and Attorney General Robert Kennedy, the remaining members of EXCOMM who haven't left for Mount Weather. The three men will stay in D.C. for as long as they can, directing the war effort from the White House and the Pentagon until it either blows over or blows up. There's a hope that if Kennedy remains in the White House then the Soviets won't assume the United States is about to launch a pre-emptive strike. It's not a very likely hope, the Soviets have been given an ultimatum to leave Cuba or face war, but in times like these you need all the hope you can get.
McNamara reads a report to the other members of the de-facto troika and a handful of military advisers. It estimates that around 90% of the nuclear strength on Cuba has been knocked out. The President breathes a sigh of relief until he fears that a number of SS-4 launchers can't be identified and their whereabouts are not known. In the event of invasion they will very likely be used against the United States.
EXCOMM's fears are confirmed later that day when Castro makes a public address in Havana at 13:00 EST. In his speech, recorded for television and radio, he confirms that he is in control of nuclear weapons capable of striking the United States and warned that in no uncertain terms that should the "Yankee imperialists" attempt to "subjugate" Cuba, he would use them to "ensure the destruction of imperialism and further progress the international socialist revolution" even if Cuba were destroyed [1]. His threat is direct and very, very blunt. To prevent America achieving victory against him he is prepared to start a global nuclear war by attacking the mainland United States with nuclear weapons. The response is immediate, panic buying across the United States continues with local law enforcement sometimes overwhelmed by stampedes, churches of all denominations find themselves full for almost the entire day as even those few who haven't attended in years look to have their souls cleansed, and peace demonstrators clash with law enforcement in major cities such as New York and San Francisco.
President Kennedy's phone is inundated with calls throughout the afternoon, many of which come from their own allies in Europe. Most of them (except the British) were never told about the impending ultimatum until a few hours before it was delivered. French President De Gaulle was particularly outraged, and now vacillates between acute rage against the Anglo-Americans and spine-chilling fear of nuclear war in Europe. The Italian government has had to deal with riots in northern cities such as Milan where local communist-aligned demonstrators attempted to block roads and railway lines to thwart mobilisation efforts. Most of the Italian Army is deployed in the north to guard against a Soviet invasion through Austria, with a large force deployed to help guard the American Jupiter missiles.
At 15:30 EST the Situation Room receives news of Warsaw Pact forces mustering on the Inner-German border. HUMINT sources reveal that the buildup is made up of elite Soviet and East German shock armies. Estimates suggest that they are not quite ready for war, many units are still moving into wartime positions, but so are NATO forces. They will need until the 3rd to be considered fully ready for war as reservists are called up and supplies are moved into theatre. A sombre mood befalls the White house as though full-scale war is now inevitable.
At 19:30 EST, the White House receives a visit from the British Ambassador, David Ormsby-Gore. It's half-past midnight in Ormsby-Gore's home country, by the time he arrives at the White House Macmillan has departed London for the wartime government bunker in Corsham, Wiltshire. Ormsby-Gore was by now mentally prepared for the outbreak of war, should it come, his job is to convey a message from the British government. Before the White House Situation Room he outlines that Britain will make first-use of nuclear weapons in the USSR crosses the River Weser, in the event of an attack, to prevent their forces and their allies in the Low Countries from being overrun. Kennedy is taken aback by the suddenness of the Ambassador's statement but doesn't oppose it. It has been NATO policy for years to oppose a Soviet-led attack in Europe using nuclear arms.
Washington D.C. was six hours behind Berlin and eight behind Moscow. News took time to travel between both superpower capitals so during crises both had to time their next moves carefully. At 22:40 EST Soviet Ambassador Dobrynin arrives at the White House in his official car. His position has been unstable for several days as both superpowers were effectively at war, and with the potential threat of internment he'd been directing efforts to burn any sensitive information to prevent them falling into the hands of the enemy. At 22:44 EST, he is escorted to the Oval Office to meet with President Kennedy and his brother the Attorney General. The White House security personnel shoot daggers from their eyes towards the Ambassador and the young man from the Soviet embassy following behind him.
Once in the Oval Office, Dobrynin begins to recite his pre-planned script to the two Kennedys, with the young translator turning his message from Russian into English. HE stated the USSR's wish for "only for friendship and brotherhood with all peoples of the world" including the American people. He then berated the American "naked aggression and piracy" in the Western Atlantic that "has brought our nations and most of the world's population to the brink of destruction." Nothing he said sounded new, President Kennedy was waiting for him to finish so he could hear what the Soviets intended to do about it. He thought the Ambassador was going to issue demands on the American state in retalitation.
He didn't.
When Dobrynin finally finished rambling and got to talking about the ultimatum, he stated that:
"...the actions of the United States have sealed the fate of the peace of the world. In particular the actions of the Bonn regime in fomenting a new wave of nationalism and chauvinism and provoking a wave of anti-Soviet psychosis in the German Democratic Republic have pushed us beyond the point we could reasonably be expected to bear. The German Democratic Republic has asked its Socialist fraternal allies for assistance. In this regard, under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, with the approval of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union and in accordance with the Treaty of Friendship, Co-Operation and Mutual Assistance of 1955, the Soviet government andSocialist allied states have decided to initiate a special military operation.
It aims to protect the people of the German Democratic Republic and other Socialist countries presently threatened by fascist and imperialist aggression. To achieve this we strive for the demilitarization and denuclearization of the Bonn regime, a final resolution to the Berlin question - necessary for the security of the German Democratic Republic, as well as an end to cowardly terrorist attacks against the people of Cuba and Soviet forces aiding them in their defense. The Soviet people are a peace-loving people, yet peace is something the enemies of the Soviet workers in the Motherland - the enemies of Socialism, will not allow. Comrade Khrushchev declares that he will continue to bring the present crisis to a satisfactory resolution, and end all present military activity once such a solution has been reached..."
By the time the Ambassador had finished his declaration, the Soviet bloc armed forces would begin their invasion of West Germany at 23:00.07 EST.
It didn't matter that Kennedy had declared there would be no NATO offensive in Europe, Hitler had promised he wouldn't invade the USSR twenty years earlier and he'd been lying. The GKO was certain the Americans would lying here too, that the expiration of the American ultimatum would herald a pre-emptive attack, either with nuclear or ordinary weapons.
Barbarossa 2.0 - and there was only one way it could be prevented.
Shortly after the President's address had finished past 2AM Moscow time on the 1st of November, Khrushchev asked Defence Minister Malinovsky whether a pre-emptive strike could be launched against the NATO forces gathered on the Inner-German frontier before the ultimatum expired. Malinovsky could have told Khrushchev that he was mad, and that there would be no such attack by the West, but he didn't entirely believe that himself. He too was terrified of the prospect of war, he'd followed orders and ordered the Soviet armed forces to mobilise but the thought of intercontinental strategic nuclear warfare made him shudder. ICBMs weren't meant to be used on the enemy, they were sign language-with-rockets as far as Malinovsky was concerned. As to whether the Eastern bloc armed forces could launch an attack within the next 2 days, he was fairly confident it could be done. The Warsaw Pact held the numerical advantage, and if they struck with haste while the West was still preparing then maybe they could occupy enough territory and destroy enough of their forces then maybe they'd cave. Perhaps it could be done in enough time to prevent an invasion of Cuba, though by this point Castro was no longer primary concern when compared to Germany [2]. If the west could be humbled in a quick pre-emptive conventional strike then maybe Castro could be convinced not to use any more nuclear weapons.
It was a desperate plan, yes, but in an impossible situation it's fairly easy to convince oneself that even a hair-brained plan with a chance of success only just greater than 0% will save everything. What became Operation WESER-RHINE was just such a plan. Khrushchev asked Malinovsky had soon it could be launched. Malinovsky concurred that the best time for such an operation was 05:00 Berlin time - still dark enough for aircraft and airborne troops to operate but leaving enough time in the day to get the troops moving, thus keeping the generals happy too. The plan's primary goal was to destroy NATO forces on the Inner-German border massed against the Eastern bloc and occupy West German land up to the Weser River in the north and Frankfurt in the south, at which point peace terms would be offered to the West. If they refused, the Warsaw Pact was to push to the Rhine. The initial attack is to not involve nuclear weapons, however all in the room are are that commanders on the ground will have control over tactical nukes. They are to be prohibited from using nuclear weapons first - emphasis on the first. If NATO uses nuclear weapons on them, they will retaliate in kind.
The final orders are given at 07:30 Moscow time. Marshal Yakubovsky - now titled as Commander of the Joint Group of Forces in the Western Area of Operations (a euphemistic title carved from the old Group of Soviet Forces in Germany) is told to prepare his men for war by tomorrow morning. Operation WESER-RHINE will begin in 23.5 hours.
Footnotes
- [1] Castro wrote something similar in the "Armageddon letter" to Khrushchev in OTL a few days before the POD.
- [2] Much like during WW1's opening days when the focus shifted from Serbia to the Western and Eastern Fronts, leaving Serbia a secondary theatre.
Sources
www.timeanddate.com
Comments?
- 19:00 D.C. time & Havana time (previous day)
- 00:00 London time
- 01:00 Berlin time & Bonn time
- 03:00 Moscow time
- 05:30 Delhi time
- 08:00 Beijing time
Chapter 7 – Duck and Cover
31 October – 2 November 1962
“How many wars have been averted by patience and persisting good will!...How many wars have been precipitated by firebrands! How many misunderstandings which led to wars could have been removed by temporizing!”
– Winston Churchill
Was this the end of the world? All over the globe, millions were wondering the same thing. Kennedy's ultimatum was where the war began to speed up, the world began to boil.
At 09:10 EST, Kennedy meets with Secretary of Defense McNamara and Attorney General Robert Kennedy, the remaining members of EXCOMM who haven't left for Mount Weather. The three men will stay in D.C. for as long as they can, directing the war effort from the White House and the Pentagon until it either blows over or blows up. There's a hope that if Kennedy remains in the White House then the Soviets won't assume the United States is about to launch a pre-emptive strike. It's not a very likely hope, the Soviets have been given an ultimatum to leave Cuba or face war, but in times like these you need all the hope you can get.
McNamara reads a report to the other members of the de-facto troika and a handful of military advisers. It estimates that around 90% of the nuclear strength on Cuba has been knocked out. The President breathes a sigh of relief until he fears that a number of SS-4 launchers can't be identified and their whereabouts are not known. In the event of invasion they will very likely be used against the United States.
EXCOMM's fears are confirmed later that day when Castro makes a public address in Havana at 13:00 EST. In his speech, recorded for television and radio, he confirms that he is in control of nuclear weapons capable of striking the United States and warned that in no uncertain terms that should the "Yankee imperialists" attempt to "subjugate" Cuba, he would use them to "ensure the destruction of imperialism and further progress the international socialist revolution" even if Cuba were destroyed [1]. His threat is direct and very, very blunt. To prevent America achieving victory against him he is prepared to start a global nuclear war by attacking the mainland United States with nuclear weapons. The response is immediate, panic buying across the United States continues with local law enforcement sometimes overwhelmed by stampedes, churches of all denominations find themselves full for almost the entire day as even those few who haven't attended in years look to have their souls cleansed, and peace demonstrators clash with law enforcement in major cities such as New York and San Francisco.
President Kennedy's phone is inundated with calls throughout the afternoon, many of which come from their own allies in Europe. Most of them (except the British) were never told about the impending ultimatum until a few hours before it was delivered. French President De Gaulle was particularly outraged, and now vacillates between acute rage against the Anglo-Americans and spine-chilling fear of nuclear war in Europe. The Italian government has had to deal with riots in northern cities such as Milan where local communist-aligned demonstrators attempted to block roads and railway lines to thwart mobilisation efforts. Most of the Italian Army is deployed in the north to guard against a Soviet invasion through Austria, with a large force deployed to help guard the American Jupiter missiles.
At 15:30 EST the Situation Room receives news of Warsaw Pact forces mustering on the Inner-German border. HUMINT sources reveal that the buildup is made up of elite Soviet and East German shock armies. Estimates suggest that they are not quite ready for war, many units are still moving into wartime positions, but so are NATO forces. They will need until the 3rd to be considered fully ready for war as reservists are called up and supplies are moved into theatre. A sombre mood befalls the White house as though full-scale war is now inevitable.
At 19:30 EST, the White House receives a visit from the British Ambassador, David Ormsby-Gore. It's half-past midnight in Ormsby-Gore's home country, by the time he arrives at the White House Macmillan has departed London for the wartime government bunker in Corsham, Wiltshire. Ormsby-Gore was by now mentally prepared for the outbreak of war, should it come, his job is to convey a message from the British government. Before the White House Situation Room he outlines that Britain will make first-use of nuclear weapons in the USSR crosses the River Weser, in the event of an attack, to prevent their forces and their allies in the Low Countries from being overrun. Kennedy is taken aback by the suddenness of the Ambassador's statement but doesn't oppose it. It has been NATO policy for years to oppose a Soviet-led attack in Europe using nuclear arms.
Washington D.C. was six hours behind Berlin and eight behind Moscow. News took time to travel between both superpower capitals so during crises both had to time their next moves carefully. At 22:40 EST Soviet Ambassador Dobrynin arrives at the White House in his official car. His position has been unstable for several days as both superpowers were effectively at war, and with the potential threat of internment he'd been directing efforts to burn any sensitive information to prevent them falling into the hands of the enemy. At 22:44 EST, he is escorted to the Oval Office to meet with President Kennedy and his brother the Attorney General. The White House security personnel shoot daggers from their eyes towards the Ambassador and the young man from the Soviet embassy following behind him.
Once in the Oval Office, Dobrynin begins to recite his pre-planned script to the two Kennedys, with the young translator turning his message from Russian into English. HE stated the USSR's wish for "only for friendship and brotherhood with all peoples of the world" including the American people. He then berated the American "naked aggression and piracy" in the Western Atlantic that "has brought our nations and most of the world's population to the brink of destruction." Nothing he said sounded new, President Kennedy was waiting for him to finish so he could hear what the Soviets intended to do about it. He thought the Ambassador was going to issue demands on the American state in retalitation.
He didn't.
When Dobrynin finally finished rambling and got to talking about the ultimatum, he stated that:
"...the actions of the United States have sealed the fate of the peace of the world. In particular the actions of the Bonn regime in fomenting a new wave of nationalism and chauvinism and provoking a wave of anti-Soviet psychosis in the German Democratic Republic have pushed us beyond the point we could reasonably be expected to bear. The German Democratic Republic has asked its Socialist fraternal allies for assistance. In this regard, under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, with the approval of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union and in accordance with the Treaty of Friendship, Co-Operation and Mutual Assistance of 1955, the Soviet government and
It aims to protect the people of the German Democratic Republic and other Socialist countries presently threatened by fascist and imperialist aggression. To achieve this we strive for the demilitarization and denuclearization of the Bonn regime, a final resolution to the Berlin question - necessary for the security of the German Democratic Republic, as well as an end to cowardly terrorist attacks against the people of Cuba and Soviet forces aiding them in their defense. The Soviet people are a peace-loving people, yet peace is something the enemies of the Soviet workers in the Motherland - the enemies of Socialism, will not allow. Comrade Khrushchev declares that he will continue to bring the present crisis to a satisfactory resolution, and end all present military activity once such a solution has been reached..."
By the time the Ambassador had finished his declaration, the Soviet bloc armed forces would begin their invasion of West Germany at 23:00.07 EST.
It didn't matter that Kennedy had declared there would be no NATO offensive in Europe, Hitler had promised he wouldn't invade the USSR twenty years earlier and he'd been lying. The GKO was certain the Americans would lying here too, that the expiration of the American ultimatum would herald a pre-emptive attack, either with nuclear or ordinary weapons.
Barbarossa 2.0 - and there was only one way it could be prevented.
Shortly after the President's address had finished past 2AM Moscow time on the 1st of November, Khrushchev asked Defence Minister Malinovsky whether a pre-emptive strike could be launched against the NATO forces gathered on the Inner-German frontier before the ultimatum expired. Malinovsky could have told Khrushchev that he was mad, and that there would be no such attack by the West, but he didn't entirely believe that himself. He too was terrified of the prospect of war, he'd followed orders and ordered the Soviet armed forces to mobilise but the thought of intercontinental strategic nuclear warfare made him shudder. ICBMs weren't meant to be used on the enemy, they were sign language-with-rockets as far as Malinovsky was concerned. As to whether the Eastern bloc armed forces could launch an attack within the next 2 days, he was fairly confident it could be done. The Warsaw Pact held the numerical advantage, and if they struck with haste while the West was still preparing then maybe they could occupy enough territory and destroy enough of their forces then maybe they'd cave. Perhaps it could be done in enough time to prevent an invasion of Cuba, though by this point Castro was no longer primary concern when compared to Germany [2]. If the west could be humbled in a quick pre-emptive conventional strike then maybe Castro could be convinced not to use any more nuclear weapons.
It was a desperate plan, yes, but in an impossible situation it's fairly easy to convince oneself that even a hair-brained plan with a chance of success only just greater than 0% will save everything. What became Operation WESER-RHINE was just such a plan. Khrushchev asked Malinovsky had soon it could be launched. Malinovsky concurred that the best time for such an operation was 05:00 Berlin time - still dark enough for aircraft and airborne troops to operate but leaving enough time in the day to get the troops moving, thus keeping the generals happy too. The plan's primary goal was to destroy NATO forces on the Inner-German border massed against the Eastern bloc and occupy West German land up to the Weser River in the north and Frankfurt in the south, at which point peace terms would be offered to the West. If they refused, the Warsaw Pact was to push to the Rhine. The initial attack is to not involve nuclear weapons, however all in the room are are that commanders on the ground will have control over tactical nukes. They are to be prohibited from using nuclear weapons first - emphasis on the first. If NATO uses nuclear weapons on them, they will retaliate in kind.
The final orders are given at 07:30 Moscow time. Marshal Yakubovsky - now titled as Commander of the Joint Group of Forces in the Western Area of Operations (a euphemistic title carved from the old Group of Soviet Forces in Germany) is told to prepare his men for war by tomorrow morning. Operation WESER-RHINE will begin in 23.5 hours.
Footnotes
- [1] Castro wrote something similar in the "Armageddon letter" to Khrushchev in OTL a few days before the POD.
- [2] Much like during WW1's opening days when the focus shifted from Serbia to the Western and Eastern Fronts, leaving Serbia a secondary theatre.
Sources
Letter from Castro to Khrushchev, 10/26/62 | American Experience | PBS
Castro urges the Soviets to consider attacking the Americans if the U.S. invades Cuba.
www.pbs.org
Chapter VII: Article 51 — Charter of the United Nations — Repertory of Practice of United Nations Organs — Codification Division Publications
This is the website of the Repertory of Practice of United Nations Organs (Legal Publications of the Codification Division of the Office of Legal Affairs). Here you will find related information and links.
legal.un.org
Sunrise and sunset times in Berlin
Calculations of sunrise and sunset in Berlin – Germany for April 2024. Generic astronomy calculator to calculate times for sunrise, sunset, moonrise, moonset for many cities, with daylight saving time and time zones taken in account.
www.timeanddate.com
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Last edited:
After verification, no American nuclear bombs yet for the F-100s of the French Air Force which was then preparing for NATO atomic missions. They only arrived in April 1963:
journals.openedition.org
At the atomic level, the French forces in Germany can count on the model 59 mechanized divisions which had two batteries of two MGR-1 Honest John (a total of ten batteries in 1966 or twenty launchers), the depot for the nuclear warheads of the 301st Group of Artillery which has 4 launchers is located in Tannheim and entered service in July 1962:
There were eight MIM-14 Nike-Hercules surface-to-air missile batteries armed by the 520th and 521st missile brigades in Baden-Württemberg from 1960 to 1966.
Quelle stratégie nucléaire pour la France ?
L’opération de Suez, en novembre 1956, véritable succès sur le plan militaire, s’achève par un désastre diplomatique. Face à l’ultimatum soviétique, la France et le Royaume-Uni perdent le soutien d...
journals.openedition.org
At the atomic level, the French forces in Germany can count on the model 59 mechanized divisions which had two batteries of two MGR-1 Honest John (a total of ten batteries in 1966 or twenty launchers), the depot for the nuclear warheads of the 301st Group of Artillery which has 4 launchers is located in Tannheim and entered service in July 1962:
There were eight MIM-14 Nike-Hercules surface-to-air missile batteries armed by the 520th and 521st missile brigades in Baden-Württemberg from 1960 to 1966.
I love this TL so far! Keep up the great work!Important Timezones:
- 19:00 D.C. time & Havana time (previous day)
- 00:00 London time
- 01:00 Berlin time & Bonn time
- 03:00 Moscow time
- 05:30 Delhi time
- 08:00 Beijing time
Chapter 7 – Duck and Cover
31 October – 2 November 1962
“How many wars have been averted by patience and persisting good will!...How many wars have been precipitated by firebrands! How many misunderstandings which led to wars could have been removed by temporizing!”
– Winston Churchill
Was this the end of the world? All over the globe, millions were wondering the same thing. Kennedy's ultimatum was where the war began to speed up, the world began to boil.
At 09:10 EST, Kennedy meets with Secretary of Defense McNamara and Attorney General Robert Kennedy, the remaining members of EXCOMM who haven't left for Mount Weather. The three men will stay in D.C. for as long as they can, directing the war effort from the White House and the Pentagon until it either blows over or blows up. There's a hope that if Kennedy remains in the White House then the Soviets won't assume the United States is about to launch a pre-emptive strike. It's not a very likely hope, the Soviets have been given an ultimatum to leave Cuba or face war, but in times like these you need all the hope you can get.
McNamara reads a report to the other members of the de-facto troika and a handful of military advisers. It estimates that around 90% of the nuclear strength on Cuba has been knocked out. The President breathes a sigh of relief until he fears that a number of SS-4 launchers can't be identified and their whereabouts are not known. In the event of invasion they will very likely be used against the United States.
EXCOMM's fears are confirmed later that day when Castro makes a public address in Havana at 13:00 EST. In his speech, recorded for television and radio, he confirms that he is in control of nuclear weapons capable of striking the United States and warned that in no uncertain terms that should the "Yankee imperialists" attempt to "subjugate" Cuba, he would use them to "ensure the destruction of imperialism and further progress the international socialist revolution" even if Cuba were destroyed [1]. His threat is direct and very, very blunt. To prevent America achieving victory against him he is prepared to start a global nuclear war by attacking the mainland United States with nuclear weapons. The response is immediate, panic buying across the United States continues with local law enforcement sometimes overwhelmed by stampedes, churches of all denominations find themselves full for almost the entire day as even those few who haven't attended in years look to have their souls cleansed, and peace demonstrators clash with law enforcement in major cities such as New York and San Francisco.
President Kennedy's phone is inundated with calls throughout the afternoon, many of which come from their own allies in Europe. Most of them (except the British) were never told about the impending ultimatum until a few hours before it was delivered. French President De Gaulle was particularly outraged, and now vacillates between acute rage against the Anglo-Americans and spine-chilling fear of nuclear war in Europe. The Italian government has had to deal with riots in northern cities such as Milan where local communist-aligned demonstrators attempted to block roads and railway lines to thwart mobilisation efforts. Most of the Italian Army is deployed in the north to guard against a Soviet invasion through Austria, with a large force deployed to help guard the American Jupiter missiles.
At 15:30 EST the Situation Room receives news of Warsaw Pact forces mustering on the Inner-German border. HUMINT sources reveal that the buildup is made up of elite Soviet and East German shock armies. Estimates suggest that they are not quite ready for war, many units are still moving into wartime positions, but so are NATO forces. They will need until the 3rd to be considered fully ready for war as reservists are called up and supplies are moved into theatre. A sombre mood befalls the White house as though full-scale war is now inevitable.
At 19:30 EST, the White House receives a visit from the British Ambassador, David Ormsby-Gore. It's half-past midnight in Ormsby-Gore's home country, by the time he arrives at the White House Macmillan has departed London for the wartime government bunker in Corsham, Wiltshire. Ormsby-Gore was by now mentally prepared for the outbreak of war, should it come, his job is to convey a message from the British government. Before the White House Situation Room he outlines that Britain will make first-use of nuclear weapons in the USSR crosses the River Weser, in the event of an attack, to prevent their forces and their allies in the Low Countries from being overrun. Kennedy is taken aback by the suddenness of the Ambassador's statement but doesn't oppose it. It has been NATO policy for years to oppose a Soviet-led attack in Europe using nuclear arms.
Washington D.C. was six hours behind Berlin and eight behind Moscow. News took time to travel between both superpower capitals so during crises both had to time their next moves carefully. At 22:40 EST Soviet Ambassador Dobrynin arrives at the White House in his official car. His position has been unstable for several days as both superpowers were effectively at war, and with the potential threat of internment he'd been directing efforts to burn any sensitive information to prevent them falling into the hands of the enemy. At 22:44 EST, he is escorted to the Oval Office to meet with President Kennedy and his brother the Attorney General. The White House security personnel shoot daggers from their eyes towards the Ambassador and the young man from the Soviet embassy following behind him.
Once in the Oval Office, Dobrynin begins to recite his pre-planned script to the two Kennedys, with the young translator turning his message from Russian into English. HE stated the USSR's wish for "only for friendship and brotherhood with all peoples of the world" including the American people. He then berated the American "naked aggression and piracy" in the Western Atlantic that "has brought our nations and most of the world's population to the brink of destruction." Nothing he said sounded new, President Kennedy was waiting for him to finish so he could hear what the Soviets intended to do about it. He thought the Ambassador was going to issue demands on the American state in retalitation.
He didn't.
When Dobrynin finally finished rambling and got to talking about the ultimatum, he stated that:
"...the actions of the United States have sealed the fate of the peace of the world. In particular the actions of the Bonn regime in fomenting a new wave of nationalism and chauvinism and provoking a wave of anti-Soviet psychosis in the German Democratic Republic have pushed us beyond the point we could reasonably be expected to bear. The German Democratic Republic has asked its Socialist fraternal allies for assistance. In this regard, under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, with the approval of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union and in accordance with the Treaty of Friendship, Co-Operation and Mutual Assistance of 1955, the Soviet government andSocialist allied states have decided to initiate a special military operation.
It aims to protect the people of the German Democratic Republic and other Socialist countries presently threatened by fascist and imperialist aggression. To achieve this we strive for the demilitarization and denuclearization of the Bonn regime, a final resolution to the Berlin question - necessary for the security of the German Democratic Republic, as well as an end to cowardly terrorist attacks against the people of Cuba and Soviet forces aiding them in their defense. The Soviet people are a peace-loving people, yet peace is something the enemies of the Soviet workers in the Motherland - the enemies of Socialism, will not allow. Comrade Khrushchev declares that he will continue to bring the present crisis to a satisfactory resolution, and end all present military activity once such a solution has been reached..."
By the time the Ambassador had finished his declaration, the Soviet bloc armed forces would begin their invasion of West Germany at 23:00.07 EST.
It didn't matter that Kennedy had declared there would be NATO offensive in Europe, Hitler had promised he wouldn't invade the USSR twenty years earlier and he'd been lying. The GKO was certain the Americans would lying here too, that the expiration of the American ultimatum would herald a pre-emptive attack, either with nuclear or ordinary weapons.
Barbarossa 2.0 - and there was only one way it could be prevented.
Shortly after the President's address had finished past 2AM Moscow time on the 1st of November, Khrushchev asked Defence Minister Malinovsky whether a pre-emptive strike could be launched against the NATO forces gathered on the Inner-German frontier before the ultimatum expired. Malinovsky could have told Khrushchev that he was mad, and that there would be no such attack by the West, but he didn't entirely believe that himself. He too was terrified of the prospect of war, he'd followed orders and ordered the Soviet armed forces to mobilise but the thought of intercontinental strategic nuclear warfare made him shudder. ICBMs weren't meant to be used on the enemy, they were sign language-with-rockets as far as Malinovsky was concerned. As to whether the Eastern bloc armed forces could launch an attack within the next 2 days, he was fairly confident it could be done. The Warsaw Pact held the numerical advantage, and if they struck with haste while the West was still preparing then maybe they could occupy enough territory and destroy enough of their forces then maybe they'd cave. Perhaps it could be done in enough time to prevent an invasion of Cuba, though by this point Castro was no longer primary concern when compared to Germany [2]. If the west could be humbled in a quick pre-emptive conventional strike then maybe Castro could be convinced not to use any more nuclear weapons.
It was a desperate plan, yes, but in an impossible situation it's fairly easy to convince oneself that even a hair-brained plan with a chance of success only just greater than 0% will save everything. What became Operation WESER-RHINE was just such a plan. Khrushchev asked Malinovsky had soon it could be launched. Malinovsky concurred that the best time for such an operation was 05:00 Berlin time - still dark enough for aircraft and airborne troops to operate but leaving enough time in the day to get the troops moving, thus keeping the generals happy too. The plan's primary goal was to destroy NATO forces on the Inner-German border massed against the Eastern bloc and occupy West German land up to the Weser River in the north and Frankfurt in the south, at which point peace terms would be offered to the West. If they refused, the Warsaw Pact was to push to the Rhine. The initial attack is to not involve nuclear weapons, however all in the room are are that commanders on the ground will have control over tactical nukes. They are to be prohibited from using nuclear weapons first - emphasis on the first. If NATO uses nuclear weapons on them, they will retaliate in kind.
The final orders are given at 07:30 Moscow time. Marshal Yakubovsky - now titled as Commander of the Joint Group of Forces in the Western Area of Operations (a euphemistic title carved from the old Group of Soviet Forces in Germany) is told to prepare his men for war by tomorrow morning. Operation WESER-RHINE will begin in 23.5 hours.
Footnotes
- [1] Castro wrote something similar in the "Armageddon letter" to Khrushchev in OTL a few days before the POD.
- [2] Much like during WW1's opening days when the focus shifted from Serbia to the Western and Eastern Fronts, leaving Serbia a secondary theatre.
Sources
Letter from Castro to Khrushchev, 10/26/62 | American Experience | PBS
Castro urges the Soviets to consider attacking the Americans if the U.S. invades Cuba.www.pbs.orgChapter VII: Article 51 — Charter of the United Nations — Repertory of Practice of United Nations Organs — Codification Division Publications
This is the website of the Repertory of Practice of United Nations Organs (Legal Publications of the Codification Division of the Office of Legal Affairs). Here you will find related information and links.legal.un.orgSunrise and sunset times in Berlin
Calculations of sunrise and sunset in Berlin – Germany for April 2024. Generic astronomy calculator to calculate times for sunrise, sunset, moonrise, moonset for many cities, with daylight saving time and time zones taken in account.
Comments?