Wars that could have happened, but didn't.

There are countless threads about wars that could have gone differently or conflicts that could have been prevented, but there aren't a lot of threads about counterfactual conflicts. Although there are a lot of war-game scenarios for future conflicts.

This thread is for listing all of the probable wars and military conflicts that could have occured after the year 1900, but fortunately did not.

I will get the easy and most notable one out of the way. That would be if the Cold War had gone hot between NATO and the Warsaw Pact. There are many potential flashpoints for this conflict like the Cuban Missile Crisis or the Able Archer incident. Who would win such a conflict depends on the year, scenario, and weapons allowed. Overall though, the Warsaw Pact would probably win a conventional conflict (in continental Europe, the Soviets could never land soldiers in the US or even the UK) while nobody would win a thermonuclear conflict.

Another major conflict that could have escalated was the Fashoda conflict. The British Empire and French Empire almost got into a shooting war over African territory. It actually started in 1898, but any major war would have lasted into the 20th Century. If the Fashoda conflict escalated, WW1 ain't happening (unless major European powers ally with both France and UK). I'm not sure who would win or what the goals would be, but the British Empire was the superpower during that era, so I doubt France would end the war better than they started. It is actually been a while since France ended a non-colonial war better than they started.
 
I can give several:

1) Second Korean War: could've happened after a) the Pueblo seizure in 1968, Operation Paul Bunyan in 1976 (when two U.S. Army officers were killed by NK soldiers in the DMZ cutting down a tree-the U.S response was to send a small force to cut the tree down, but backed up by U.S. and ROK forces on the ground, a carrier battle group at sea, and USAF aircraft armed and either in the air, or on ground alert), the 1994 nuclear crisis (and the others since).

2) U.S.-Iran: Could have happened as a result of the Hostage Crisis (either from the rescue mission or the negotiations failing to get a deal before Reagan's inauguration; U.S. strikes against Iran as a result of the Tanker War getting out of hand in 1987-88 are another, and more recently, the Iranian seizure of two USN craft and the detainment of their crews for a couple of days.

3) U.S./UK vs. Syria (1958) This is due to the Lebanon Crisis and a related one in Jordan: U.S. Marines landed in Beirut, and a UK Parachute Brigade went to Jordan. Syria squawked, and there was quite a bit of firepower in the region (USAF tacair in Turkey, two Sixth Fleet Carriers, and the RAF in Cyprus).

4) Black September: King Hussein appealed for help in dealing with the PLO over the hijackings to Dawson's Field in Jordan. The Nixon Administration sent Marines to the Eastern Med along with two carriers, there were British moves to Cyprus and the Eastern Med as well, and the 82nd Airborne was actually preparing for a division-level jump into Jordan to support the Jordanian Army. The Soviets made some moves with their Navy's Med Squadron, supposedly had Airborne forces alerted to move to Syria to support the Syrians, etc.

5) And a wild one: The Oil War of 1973-? After the OPEC Oil Embargo in 1973, there was serious consideration at the White House and in DOD of actually invading Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to seize the oil fields and get the oil flowing again. Fortunately, Nixon and Kissinger rejected such proposals.
 

TheSpectacledCloth

Gone Fishin'
WWI starting over the Agadir Crisis
WWI starting over the Austrian annexation of Bosnia
Winter War in 1918
1934 German-Italian War over Austria
1936 French invasion of the Rhineland
1938 WWII starting over the Sudetenland or just the German-Czech War
1940 German invasion of Sweden
1940 Soviet-Romanian War over Bessarabia
1940 The Transylvanian War
1940 German invasion of Switzerland
1948 The Berlin Crisis
1958 American invasion of Syria
1961 American invasion of Cuba
1973 American invasion of the Gulf States
1976 The Second Vietnam War
1979 American invasion of Iran
1989 Violent Collapse of the Warsaw Pact
1991 American invasion of Iraq
1994 The Second Korean War
 
In June 1945 a war almost occured between Communist Czechoslovakia and Communist Poland over the territorial disputes that had existed between Czechoslovakia and Poland back in the interwar period, as well as about who should own some prewar german pieces of Silesia. There had even been some minor skirmishes. The Soviet Union, however, forbade both countries to fight each other.
 
Dogger Bank Incident in 1904 when Russia was already a war with Japan and might have also been at war with Great Britain after the Russian navy mistakenly fired on British fishermen.

The first Moroccan Crisis in 1905 in which France would have had to fight Germany without her Russian ally who had been recently defeated by Japan.

Franco-British plans to militarily intervene to aid Finland against the Soviet Union in 1939 -1940 and bomb Russia’s Caucasus oil fields while they were currently at war with Nazi Germany.
 
Dogger Bank Incident in 1904 when Russia was already a war with Japan and might have also been at war with Great Britain after the Russian navy mistakenly fired on British fishermen.

The first Moroccan Crisis in 1905 in which France would have had to fight Germany without her Russian ally who had been recently defeated by Japan.

Franco-British plans to militarily intervene to aid Finland against the Soviet Union in 1939 -1940 and bomb Russia’s Caucasus oil fields while they were currently at war with Nazi Germany.

As to the latter PoD, I wrote a TL on that in 2010. That feels like a lifetime ago. Anyhow, the gist of it is that the Nazis and the Soviets were forced into an unholy alliance as a result.
 
Three more that I can think of:

In the 1980s, there were rumbles that two Warsaw Pact countries were going to go after each other: Hungary and Romania, over the Cauceascu Regime's mistreatment of the Hungarian minority in Western Romania. Though they never did, Trevor Dupuy's Future Wars treated this scenario in some detail.

Soviet Invasion of Poland, 1980-81: While the Poles would've been crushed, they would've resisted, unlike the Czechs in 1968.

The big one: Sino-Soviet War, whether in 1969 or at some point after. The big one apart from a NATO-Pact conflict: possible use of nukes, definite use of Chemical Weapons (by both sides), as the two Communist juggernauts settle their differences once and for all. While the U.S. and the West sit back and watch.
 
As to the latter PoD, I wrote a TL on that in 2010. That feels like a lifetime ago. Anyhow, the gist of it is that the Nazis and the Soviets were forced into an unholy alliance as a result.
Wow Onkel Willie this is a magnificent timeline ! You posted it in January to February 2010. I checked and found I was on hiatus from the board from September 2009 until December 2010 so that’s why I missed it at the time. Glad you responded to my post in this thread so I can now enjoy your “The Great Mistake – A Winter War Escalates TL “
 
Not sure how realistic it would be but I could see the Business plot in the US leading to a war but how big I don’t know. Certainly if you got another general and not Smedley Butler, you might see some sort of revolt against FDR, but while it might not be a “cocktail putsch” it might be something more serious though not a civil war. Maybe more of a small conflict put down.
 
My top pick for said war that could have happened is the one over the Beagle Islands between Chile and Argentina. It was about to happen during Operation Soberania, but it was cancelled due to a combination of bad weather and the intervention of the pope. Had either of those things didn't happen (though I'm not sure how would the Argentine junta turn down the Papacy's offer), South America would have its share of a bloody conflict in the 20th century between two non-communist dictatorships that could have lasted at least several months, depending on how the US backs Santiago in spite of the ties between the countries plus that of Buenos Aires; not to mention possibly drawing in interest from the USSR and perhaps China given the Cold War setup.
 
The most likely war was Konfrontasi between Indonesia and Malaysia and the UK, Australia and New Zealand. The clashes became steadily hotter in 1964-5 with troops from Indonesia actively invading Malaysia and being resisted by UK and Australia and Malaysian troops in Brunei and Sarawak and Sabah. Along with the Communists in Malaysia it was a hot period indeed. Only the overthrow of Sukarno calmed matters down.
 
The Pig War around the 1850s between Britain and the UK where they nearly fought over a shot pig and some islands
I think you mean Britain and the US, although I can all too easily imaging Ireland [1] fighting Britain over a pig. There's a lot of history and grudges in Britain and Ireland just waiting for an excuse to resurface - some Brits and Irish haven't yet got over the Normans, and a few are still annoyed about the Romans.

[1] The UK being Great Britain and Ireland or Great Britain and Northern Ireland, depending on the date, you could meet the intent of UK vs Britain this way
 
The most likely war was Konfrontasi between Indonesia and Malaysia and the UK, Australia and New Zealand. The clashes became steadily hotter in 1964-5 with troops from Indonesia actively invading Malaysia and being resisted by UK and Australia and Malaysian troops in Brunei and Sarawak and Sabah. Along with the Communists in Malaysia it was a hot period indeed. Only the overthrow of Sukarno calmed matters down.
Hey I have a question. As a Christmas gift can you give me one thing pls pls

I need a description of what this war might look like
who will participate on both sides
approx how many people will die
who will most likely win this war
what effect the war will have on Indonesian politics
what effects this war will have on Vietnam war
 
Hey I have a question. As a Christmas gift can you give me one thing pls pls

I need a description of what this war might look like
Initially it would be like a conventional war but as it progresses it would become more and more like a COIN operation (as conducted by the British/Australians rather than the foolish American effort). It would involve the local natives if they like it or not.
who will participate on both sides
Initially, conventional forces on both sides dwindling down to irregular forces as the war progresses.
approx how many people will die
A few thousand.
who will most likely win this war
The UK/Australian/New Zealand/Malaysian forces.
what effect the war will have on Indonesian politics
I expect it will end with Sukarno being deposed.
what effects this war will have on Vietnam war
It will delay Australian/New Zealand involvement, not that either force mattered all that much to the Americans and South Vietnamese.
 
The Pig War around the 1850s between Britain and the UK where they nearly fought over a shot pig and some islands
1859, over control of San Juan Island between the British colony of Vancouver Island, and what was then the US Washington Territory. US Army and Royal Navy marines stared each other down from opposite ends of the island for a few years. The conflict was sort of put on hold by the US Civil War. An international panel eventually ruled in favour of the US border claims. One commander of US forces was a then Captain Picket, who went on to lose the Civil War for the Confederacy, but at least he got a mountain named after him on nearby Orcas Island.

I am going there in a couple of weeks.

This could have gone hot. US officers at the time with political ambitions tended to want a battle to put on their campaign literature. The newspapers of the day on both sides of the border sold more copies if they inflamed public opinion. Likely outcome, the US occupies parts of British Columbia, unless the Royal Navy sinks all their ships.
 
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Kissinger "suggested" that Franco's Spain should intervene military in the Portuguese revolution of 1974. Franco said no. What if he had said yes?...
 
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