WI: No Qing China

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Assuming Nurhaci dies rather quick after conquering Liaodong peninsula and the Manchus fail to invade China, south of the wall or the Mongolian domains. This would butterfly away the Chinese conquest of Qinghai, Mongolia and even Xinjiang. Or not?

What are the chances of Ming China/Other Han Chinese dynasty expanding West? Is the region spared from Chinese domination or is it inevitable?

What does this mean for the Mongols? A bigger Mongolia including Qinghai, Dzungaria and Inner Mongolia? Maybe even Tibet?

Is Manchuria spared from Chinese domination or is that too inevitable? Or will it fall in Russian hands? Or maybe even Korean or Mongolian?

 

[Talus I of Dixie]

Ok, i'll have to separate the questions

Assuming Nurhaci dies rather quick after conquering Liaodong peninsula and the Manchus fail to invade China, south of the wall or the Mongolian domains. This would butterfly away the Chinese conquest of Qinghai, Mongolia and even Xinjiang. Or not?

Yes

What are the chances of Ming China/Other Han Chinese dynasty expanding West? Is the region spared from Chinese domination or is it inevitable?

very small, the manchus rule added that whoever controlled China was not a chinese, who were already traumatized with the mongols, so probably a chinese dinasty would stay on the defensive (what can butterfly for a Russian Mongolia, Manchuria and Xinjiang)

What does this mean for the Mongols? A bigger Mongolia including Qinghai, Dzungaria and Inner Mongolia? Maybe even Tibet?

Yes, a bigger Mongolia would happen and no, Tibet would be independent

Is Manchuria spared from Chinese domination or is that too inevitable? Or will it fall in Russian hands? Or maybe even Korean or Mongolian?

Would be russian probably

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Assuming Nurhaci dies rather quick after conquering Liaodong peninsula and the Manchus fail to invade China, south of the wall or the Mongolian domains. This would butterfly away the Chinese conquest of Qinghai, Mongolia and even Xinjiang. Or not?

At minimum, should they occur, it would be on a vastly different timescale, for different reasons, under different circumstances. Most likely they simply don't in favour of the age old tropes of turtling up and preferring tribute to annexation.

What are the chances of Ming China/Other Han Chinese dynasty expanding West? Is the region spared from Chinese domination or is it inevitable?

unlikely to none depending on the dynasty. If the Xi dynasty has gotten off the ground there may not be a China for much longer...

What does this mean for the Mongols? A bigger Mongolia including Qinghai, Dzungaria and Inner Mongolia? Maybe even Tibet?

Assuming the Manchu don't conquer them; most likely. Tibet is iffy but not out of the realm of possibilities.

Is Manchuria spared from Chinese domination or is that too inevitable? Or will it fall in Russian hands? Or maybe even Korean or Mongolian?

Depends how things pan out after Nurhaci dies.

 

[Superninja76]

To answer your questions, as I know (a little) about the region at the time..
1: Mongolia was going to fall either way, really. With the rise of the gunpowder empires, the mongol skill on horseback became increasingly redundant, as such could be relatively easily countered with semi-competent usage of gunpowder weaponry. Qinghai would be relatively easy to take, along with tibet (the khoshut khanate was not exactly that strong of a nation, and whatever chinese nation takes the ming's place, which would almost certainly be shun, is likely to turn west) Xinjiang..could be problematic. The dzungar were actually rather capable, and gave the qing some trouble. Still, I don't see them lasting very long if china put their mind to beating them into the dirt.
2: If china decides to turn west, effectively nothing would stop it.
3: Potentially, yes. The dzungar were gunning to reunite the mongols, and that was actually what caused the dzungar-qing wars to develop. Though I doubt that a chinese dynasty would allow such, it's a dangerous proposition in general, they could be successful given alot of luck. Also, again, you have to have china not want to conquer them.
4: If the chinese bother, it's inevitable. Otherwise? Probably falls to the mongols. A korean invasion of parts of manchuria actually seems rather likely too, as king hyojong (not to be confused with his son, hyeonjong) was rather millitarist and, not only reorganised and reformed the joseon military, but planned expeditions north irl. Hyeonjong didn't have the same ambitions as his father, but the joseon military was still bolstered during his reign. If korea decides to undertake an expedition, they could have some success. Restore balhae, anyone?

 

[Richard V]

Qing controlling the resources of northern China would definitely conquer Mongolia, possibly Tibet, possibly the rest of the former Chagatai Khanate.

They will resist Russian expansion for some time. But eventually end up getting crushed between Russia and China. Which one gets what depends on how powerful this new Chinese dynasty is.

IOTL China couldn’t pull a Meiji because it perceived no external threat and the Manchu minority feared too much European contact could make the Han harder to rule. This native ruled China facing powerful Qing threat might open up earlier to access Western tech. In which case they might get most of the Qing Empire. Territorially China might look fairly recognizable.

 

[BBadolato]

Assuming Nurhaci dies rather quick after conquering Liaodong peninsula and the Manchus fail to invade China, south of the wall or the Mongolian domains. This would butterfly away the Chinese conquest of Qinghai, Mongolia and even Xinjiang. Or not?

What are the chances of Ming China/Other Han Chinese dynasty expanding West? Is the region spared from Chinese domination or is it inevitable?

What does this mean for the Mongols? A bigger Mongolia including Qinghai, Dzungaria and Inner Mongolia? Maybe even Tibet?

Is Manchuria spared from Chinese domination or is that too inevitable? Or will it fall in Russian hands? Or maybe even Korean or Mongolian?

Greatly for the first question, unlikely for the Second the Chinese conquests of the Qing where quite unusual considering both how far north and west they went. As for the Mongols they would have to get organized to be more than an occasional regional power. As for Chinese domination of Manchuria is it is unlikely, unless an emperor really cares to do so. A Joseon invasion would require the nation sorting itself out politically and militarily.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

It seems to me that as the Koshut Khanate ruled as a Mongol Khanate over Tibet and the Dzungars did destroy the Koshut (and redirected the Qing to Tibet) it seems possible that Tibet could have been a part of a more unified Mongolian State. Especially as their ties were good.

 

[Hegemon]

Some people here seem to believe that it is very unlikely that a native Chinese successor would not reach the Qing extent with control over nomadic peoples. I would argue that a native Chinese dynasty, under the right circumstances, has a good chance of defeating and subjugating its neighbors. Under the Qing, China underwent enormous demographic growth, while firearms had finally begun to diffuse to China. Han people were not militarily degenerate; even the Manchus admitted to their ferocity and effectiveness in many situations. With all of this, plus the energy and proactive/preemptive strikes a new dynasty would likely inflict upon its neighbors, I would say conquest is very likely. After all, the Ming had some limited control over Manchuria and were argued to exert some influence over Tibet. The real issue would be integration. To rule the conquered areas so they are not impoverished or angered and to make the elites feel included and integrated in a functional system would be key. Otherwise, the areas will be impoverished hotbeds of rebellion that are not worth keeping. A native dynasty may have more trouble with this than the Qing did.

Even without direct conquest, a native dynasty may establish a suzerain-vassal relationship with their neighbors, turning on its head the age-old nomad-sedentary order. Who knows?

 

[kasumigenx]

A native dynasty will be better because there will be no brain drain of chinese going overseas.