Wrapped in Flames: The Great American War and Beyond

[EnglishCanuck]

@EnglishCanuck This must be one of your best-written chapter! That idea of a funeral procession was brilliant, I geniunely felt the sorrow of the people reading through that part. The whole continent is going to be shaken by that war and in the former United States, New England more than any other place, I think, will never be the same.

No matter how happy I felt when the Yanks were finally pushed out of Canada back in 1864, I could not help but feel disdain at the behavior of the delegates during the conference. Torpedoing the Great Republic on accounts of bigotry and self-preservation. But given how short-sighted politicians are, this sh*tshow is eerily realistic...

McClellan can go to hell, Lincoln will get thrown into the sewers as well given the context but Georgy B. is the one responsible for the death of the Union.

Now let's see how the house stands...

My sincerest thanks! I'd gone over this one time and time again, and I'm glad it got some of the punch I was hoping for. On a darkly humorous note that funeral procession was based on an account of a celebration where the Confederacy was given a mock burial in OTL. It takes on a darker tone when there are people blaming both the current and the past president for the mess I think.

The immediate post-war history of the United States is not going to be one of sunshine and rainbows. There's a president who is desperate to secure some kind of positive legacy, and the two major political parties are either split, or about to split again. So the upcoming Era of Hard Feelings is going to hit the US political establishment particularly hard. The backbiting and shortsighted grandstanding are going to be a feature of the coming era.

As I've said, I don't hold McClellan in super high regard, and even though he's not going to be thought of as the worst, he will rank nowhere near the top in any list of presidents. The title of worst will go to the man who passed "The Cursed Amendment."

 

[EnglishCanuck]

As expected, McClellan bitterly disappoints me. And I already expected disappointment. It's just... Presidents not having clear control over their subordinates, allowing them to lead the President instead of the other way around, it's a terrible amateur mistake, yet one we often saw in history. It makes complete sense given McClellan's temperament and inexperience, but it's still a disaster for the Union.

Sad to say you expected right. I have little respect for McClellan, and all my research into his 1864 electoral campaign has made me believe he would have been a terrible president. He was not politically minded, and very much seemed to treat the whole campaign as a business venture. There's even some very good accounts where he wrote to Barlow saying "don't send any more politicians my way" which suggests he would not have been able to make the necessary political alliances to steer his party, and he probably could have been easily led by his more astute or opinionated subordinates.

All that combined means he made some very amateurish mistakes, and then his personal sense of honor/pride would not allow him to go back on his word.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Something tells me that Proto facism is going to happen in America and also there will be the northern version of the KKK (probably both racist and also ones that hate hate southerners) that would do terristism on the south because if they take down the politicians there in their mind it will make the south fall

Proto-fascism I'll say no to right now. The US is going to go through some changes, many of which will surprise some people I think - but so is the Confederacy. However, the US is still going to struggle towards Great Power status by the dawn of the 20th century, and that will neither be simple nor bloodless.

As for terrorism against the South... well that is absolutely going to happen.

 

[Ryan lozano]

I will say the terrorism in the south is going to be even greater then what the KKK did in our timeline because to the usa terrorist they been so humiliated that they believe that if they hurt the south more they can try to reclaim it and this time I believe the actual have the leverage to actually take their government down if they rally enough people which in the north there and those in the south for their cause is no end to sight

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Chapter 110: The Winds of Change​

“The groundwork for recognition of the Confederate States had been laid out far in advance by Confederate diplomats operating officially and unofficially from Amsterdam to Havana. While in 1861 and 1862 this had been seen by many diplomats as wishful thinking, the entry of Britain into the war had changed the calculus.

While Confederate diplomats had not managed any great diplomatic triumphs on their own, the unfettered access to the global economy the British blockade of the North granted them allowed them to send economic agents, as well as diplomats, to many courts in Europe. Despite blunt rebuffs by the courts of Prussia, Russia and Austria, they had managed to ingratiate themselves in London, Paris, Amsterdam, Brussels, Lisbon and Madrid. This led to a network of agents who, through economic as well as diplomatic means, could massage the opinion of Europe, aided by Confederate propaganda…

Hotze’s efforts to make the cause of Confederate independence seem inevitable in 1864 were ramped up in the wake of McClellan’s electoral victory. Editorials promoting “facts” regarding the war such as claiming that a million men had died trying to subdue the Confederacy from 1861-64, or Lincoln was secretly rallying a cabal of abolitionists to begin a race war, ran daily. One sensationalist headline proclaimed “five hundred thousand more will fill the graves of the north” while downplaying Confederate casualties. The prominence of the Confederate navy was tied to the British victory over its Union counterpart. All in all, Hotze could boast of a wide readership willing to believe such things.

The most influential reader of the Index in 1864 was William Gladstone who Hotze bragged in a letter to Judah Benjamin “can be seen carrying a copy to Parliament, to show to his colleagues.” While Gladstone may have been the most prominent reader, he was hardly the only one. And an effort by the Confederate minister in France, Slidell, would have French copies printed and read in the salons of Paris in early 1865.

Hotze’s efforts were helped by the brief interruption in diplomatic efforts by McClellan’s recall of men he did not trust, including many of Seward’s picked ambassadors and men who had been engaged in the negotiations at Rotterdam. At this crucial moment, there was no coherent Union diplomatic movement to counter the Confederate narrative in Europe…” - The Press is Mightier than the Sword: Henry Hotze and the Confederate Propaganda Machine in Europe 1861-1867, Emmanuel Robertson, Oxford Press, 1968

William Gladstone and Edouard de Lhuys, the foreign advocates of the Confederacy​

“Three things happened to change French foreign policy towards the Confederacy in 1864. Firstly the more neutral Foreign Minister had Édouard Thouvenel resigned in favor of the pro-Confederate Édouard Drouyn de Lhuys, which led to a much more pro-Confederate ministry. Secondly, the French victories in Mexico made the Emperor anxious to protect the fledgling Mexican Empire for the future, and a Confederate buffer state would be in his interest. Thirdly, the specter of a new blockade of the South worried him. While there had not been a cotton famine in 1862 as many feared, Southern exports had barely crested half of what they had been in 1860, sending worries of a rise in garment prices in 1864 and 1865.

Napoleon, who had founded his empire on the twin promises of martial glory and economic prosperity, could not allow such a thing to hamper him at home and abroad. He had always been favorable towards recognizing the independence of the Confederacy, if only to curb the United States, but would not move without British support…

Britain’s exit from the war in 1864 might have dampened his spirits for meddling in North American affairs, but with the election of George McClellan and a slog of battlefield defeats for the North in fields from Georgia to Virginia, once again his mind turned to intervention. The refusal of the Roebuck proposal in 1863 had made him cautious of treating with Britain, but the setbacks of 1864 and the political wheeling of 1865 finally led him to conclude he had a chance to shape North American events to his liking…

Rather than immediately approach Britain on another offer of recognition, through de Lhuys he entered into talks with the leaders of Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands. Spain and the Netherlands both had emerging economic ties to the Confederacy, while Belgium was putting one of its royal house on the Mexican throne through French blood and treasure. With some wheedling and cajoling he managed to secure a promise from each that should talks with the United States prove fruitful, they would recognize the independence of the Confederacy alongside France.

These were easy concessions to make for each, as it cost them nothing. However, Napoleon knew that only France and a few smaller states might not make the diplomatic impact he desired, so he approached Austria.

Franz Josef was not a man prone to recognizing separatist states. With dozens of nationalities making up his own empire and different secessionist organizations plotting from Lombardy to Galicia, he was not about to let himself be seen as complicit in carving up a different nation. Nor could Napoleon cajole him with similar promises. Austria had no great connection to the Confederacy, so economic arguments would be fruitless. That Franz Josef’s brother was sitting on the Mexican throne was also not a great matter of importance, even though he held familial concern - enough to help organize contingents of volunteers to help him fight for it - but not enough that he would sacrifice his principles on ‘de facto governments anywhere’ which might set a bad example at home.

Napoleon thus approached him with a realpolitik view. If the Union and the Confederacy agreed to negotiate on the basis of separation, as talks in Louisville seemed to indicate, might it not be better to recognize an established fact? Through their respective foreign ministers the two men would talk back and forth through much of early 1865 until July when the news of the outcome of the Convention of Louisville became clear. Persuaded by his ministers that this may lead to France owing Austria a favor, Franz Josef reluctantly agreed to recognize the Confederacy in a joint decree, but only with other nations…

Napoleon expected his greatest battle to come from Britain which had so solidly rebuffed his attempts to recognize the Confederacy before. However, domestic politics, still sore towards the United States and subtly influenced by Confederate propagandists, had seen opinion in Britain shift more favorably towards recognition. Gladstone in particular had been nudging his fellows in Parliament towards the matter. Finally, with the news seeming to indicate that the North was also going the way of separation, voices in Parliament won out seeking recognition of the South…

On August 19th 1865, a joint declaration was released from Great Britain, France, Spain, Austria, Belgium the Netherlands, and at the last moment the Italian government, that they recognized the independence of the Confederate States of America…” - Foreign Policy of the Second French Empire, Pierre Martin, 1991

 

[EnglishCanuck]

I will say the terrorism in the south is going to be even greater then what the KKK did in our timeline because to the usa terrorist they been so humiliated that they believe that if they hurt the south more they can try to reclaim it and this time I believe the actual have the leverage to actually take their government down if they rally enough people which in the north there and those in the south for their cause is no end to sight

In the post-war case its more a "your terrorists are our freedom fighters" because there's thousands of USCT who are now armed and dangerous and have every incentive to make sure they can free at least some people or their families before the treaty sets in.

That's going to be a huge problem immediately post-war. The border states too will have some rather bloody side effects as the war (and peace) is an excuse to settle grudges.

 

[SultanArda]

Can I ask about the border of the Confederacy, as Kentucky was virtually divided in half, and I don't think that West Virginia would welcome being a part of Virginia again?
Also, can we have a few more details about the Pacific Republic project? (As it was mentioned that the borders of North America were going to be unrecognizable and the mention of this project makes it either a reference to this or a red herring)
Who are the main supporters, which states it is most popular in, and are there any outside support they can seek out?
(Thanks for these great updates by the way! I really enjoyed them, and they were really good!)

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

Given what the author said about the Russians vs Brits in the future as well as the fact the Russian Empire hasn't recognized the Confederates, I wonder if the USA wouldn't fill in the gap from the French from OTL where they would be investing hard into the Empire, especially if it meant easier access to Asian markets and they probably won't have Hawaii ITTL, plus it's also a nice rub against Britain and probably France since due to butterflies, I don't see the Prussian-Franco war ending in the disaster that it was OTL for the French, a defeat maybe but not a devastating one.

 

[MonarchistCanuck]

Well played EC, you kept us all guessing but now we have confirmation of Confederate independence. Now I'm really looking forward to how North America pans out, I get a feeling the map might end up resembling Europe more than OTL North America down the road but we'll see.

Consequently if we do see a "Pacific Republic" happen you will be one step away from having a "Victorian Kaiserreich" style series of borders 😛. Though if there is going to be a (attempted) revolution I suspect it won't be in Chicago...

And of course after writing the above I can't help but wonder if ol' Huey will still be born and what his career path in the Confederacy would like

 

[generalurist]

As I've said, I don't hold McClellan in super high regard, and even though he's not going to be thought of as the worst, he will rank nowhere near the top in any list of presidents. The title of worst will go to the man who passed "The Cursed Amendment."

Oh god, something very bad is going to happen to the remnants of the USA later in this century.

Speaking of bad, what will be the fates of the Black population in areas of the south occupied by the Union? Do the terms of peace say if they can withdraw north?

 

[Khaine]

Given what the author said about the Russians vs Brits in the future as well as the fact the Russian Empire hasn't recognized the Confederates, I wonder if the USA wouldn't fill in the gap from the French from OTL where they would be investing hard into the Empire, especially if it meant easier access to Asian markets and they probably won't have Hawaii ITTL, plus it's also a nice rub against Britain and probably France since due to butterflies, I don't see the Prussian-Franco war ending in the disaster that it was OTL for the French, a defeat maybe but not a devastating one.

With the French now owning the Austrians we might see the Austro-Prussian war butterflied away entirely.
If we are due to a Russo-British match we might be looking at a 7 year war 2.0.

 

[MonarchistCanuck]

With the French now owning the Austrians

Shades of Austerlitz? I must have missed the part in EC's update where Napoleon III marched in le Grand Armee to convince Franz Joseph to confer recognition on the Confederates 🤪

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Can I ask about the border of the Confederacy, as Kentucky was virtually divided in half, and I don't think that West Virginia would welcome being a part of Virginia again?

Kentucky is going to be something of a special case. The population was not allowed to vote in 1864, while 1/3 is under direct Confederate control. Both sides are making claim on it, but the US is unlikely to just allow for some sort of referendum on Kentucky being in the Union unless the Confederates offer something else.

The State of Kanawha West Virginia is not going to be rejoining Virginia, ever.

Also, can we have a few more details about the Pacific Republic project? (As it was mentioned that the borders of North America were going to be unrecognizable and the mention of this project makes it either a reference to this or a red herring)
Who are the main supporters, which states it is most popular in, and are there any outside support they can seek out?

I'm keeping most of that close to the chest (for now) because Western alienation is going to be a huge political issue going into the latter half of the 19th century in the US. There's a very real feeling of being "left out to dry" by Washington in exchange for just sending wagonloads of gold/silver/minerals east in exchange for little else. California and Oregon are both angered by being forced to use greenbacks rather than gold, while the putative state of Washington is mad at how they got occupied and nearly put on the chopping block.

For a reasonable look at who might be leading the charge, the Lecompton Democrats from California are big leaders in calling (again) for an independent Pacific Republic, but some people you won't expect will also be leading the charge.

(Thanks for these great updates by the way! I really enjoyed them, and they were really good!)

I'm glad! Many thanks as always for reading.

Chapter 111 will probably be a couple weeks out, but definitely before the end of the year. It's probably the most complex to write. Then 2024 will see us going into 1866 and beyond!

 

[Ironshark]

I wonder how BC will feel about the Pacific Republic and vice versa ? it is a thing for Americans to instantly want to grow after all .[see Golden circle plans]

which reminds me that in OTL asian americans fought for the north and south, would asians/ generally minorities in canada [beside the black canadians mentioned] have served in the army? could this have any impact on race relations in the future north American?

also I don't this timeline is biased against America.I think it's generally portrayed as a good country that just gets the worst possible circumstances at the worst possible time .but with that said reading the whole thing it's clear this was never going to be about America conquering all...this time anyway.

 

[Collin1212]

Welp. Looks like the USA is going to heavily resent Europe in this timeline. Do we have a map of the current situation going down in North America?

 

[DarkAvenger]

I was checking on Western Alienation online and the result I got is that it is part of Canadian politics with various provinces deciding whether to secede or not. From what I understand, the US would have the same thing but it is going to be much more volatile given the increasing sentiment following the war, but wouldn't such sentiment for a Pacific Republic wax and wane over the years?

I am not sure if the Western US becomes independent or whether different national boundaries in North America equates to more nations appearing in North America, but given how this timeline has gone, I wouldn't be surprised if a Pacific Republic appears in the 20th century (Western alienation being a huge US political issue in the latter half of the 19th century suggests a Pacific Republic won't happen 50 years down the line) like the US losing another massive war down the line. But with the need to rebuild the US, it is likely the east would be prioritized over the west, further souring relations. If the west managed to rebuild without support from the east, it could embolden the independence movement in California, Oregon, and Washington state.

Edit:
Personally, I don't think Washington would allow an independent Pacific Republic after the Confederacy broke off, and it would further tarnish their international standing while empowering their enemies. I am not sure how the US would deal with this but it might relate to the different national borders. For all I know, a war of secession breaks out in the West and the US manages to defeat it to prevent another potentially hostile front and that is how General William Lincoln's career begins ITTL. And it would be even crazier if the sentiment for a Pacific Republic spread to Western Canada because they feel left out of the Kingdom of Canada and form an independent Republic of Cascadia with Alaska in it, but what are the odds of that happening?

But whatever happens later, I'm sure you will make it interesting.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Well played EC, you kept us all guessing but now we have confirmation of Confederate independence. Now I'm really looking forward to how North America pans out, I get a feeling the map might end up resembling Europe more than OTL North America down the road but we'll see.

Thank you! I played that one as close to the chest as I could over the years, but I guess the cats out of the bag now Hopefully the coming decades in Wrapped in Flames will prove just as equally surprising.

Well a map of North America reflecting who controls what would be very interesting. When we hit 1871 I may just have to do that.

Consequently if we do see a "Pacific Republic" happen you will be one step away from having a "Victorian Kaiserreich" style series of borders 😛. Though if there is going to be a (attempted) revolution I suspect it won't be in Chicago...

And of course after writing the above I can't help but wonder if ol' Huey will still be born and what his career path in the Confederacy would like

The world map will be extremely different by 1900. I've been tinkering away with it and I guarantee people will be both pleasantly and unpleasantly surprised.

Well, anyone born post-1860s is effectively not going to exist save in a very different version. I'm letting the butterflies fly free.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Oh god, something very bad is going to happen to the remnants of the USA later in this century.

Speaking of bad, what will be the fates of the Black population in areas of the south occupied by the Union? Do the terms of peace say if they can withdraw north?

Not necessarily really bad, just not necessarily pleasant...

As for the black populations in areas the Union occupies, beyond the soldiers in the USCT regiments (and barely them) the Democratic government is not going to feel any loyalty towards them (McClellan for one only agreed with the Emancipation Proclamation as a war measure, and that barely) which means they will be content to do what the US did with slaves in loyal states during the war, leave them as they are and possibly even return some to loyalists. That said, they won't make any effort to stops slaves fleeing behind the army either.

So far was Washington is concerned the slaves are very much Richmond's problems. Only the slaves in Delaware, Maryland, Kentucky and Missouri are theirs to worry about.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

With the French now owning the Austrians we might see the Austro-Prussian war butterflied away entirely.
If we are due to a Russo-British match we might be looking at a 7 year war 2.0.

With Napoleon scoring some major diplomatic wins, glory in Mexico, and a share of positive press at home, he's going to be feeling very confident on the world stage. So 1866-67 in Europe will look very different in most respects. I can guarantee that the 1870 Franco-Prussian War is butterflied away. However, the Rhine War is very much a thing on the horizon in Europe...

That works out nicely for me because of events I have planned in North America in the late 1860s.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

I wonder how BC will feel about the Pacific Republic and vice versa ? it is a thing for Americans to instantly want to grow after all .[see Golden circle plans]

Will depend on how effective that whole Pacific Republic is to get off the ground...

which reminds me that in OTL asian americans fought for the north and south, would asians/ generally minorities in canada [beside the black canadians mentioned] have served in the army? could this have any impact on race relations in the future north American?

Mostly a few fought on each side and, with the exception of the Black militia companies Canada is about to keep onboard, and the buffalo soldiers in the US, not much of a change. Racial prejudice runs deep and the problems of white supremacy aren't going away any time soon. The Pacific slope in particular is about to get into trouble on that account.

also I don't this timeline is biased against America.I think it's generally portrayed as a good country that just gets the worst possible circumstances at the worst possible time .but with that said reading the whole thing it's clear this was never going to be about America conquering all...this time anyway.

Well part of what got me writing TTL was being tired of TL's where US just conquers Canada, and the discussion in probably every single Trent War thread for years that either the US or Britain would sweep all before them and just keep winning without setbacks. I did not believe that would be the case. Most prominently of course I got tired of Canadians being bit players and I had to set out to fix that!

Years of research have led me to surmise that 1862-63 would be extremely bloody years, but ones where each side would win victories, get some defeats, but ultimately come to the table. Indeed, the war could have ended much worse in 1863. The US got some of the worst circumstances you can imagine in WiF, and even the best men of a generation would be hard pressed to overcome the disadvantages piled on them by this war. Its just unfortunate that Lincoln was succeeded by a man who didn't have any real attachment to winning.

Welp. Looks like the USA is going to heavily resent Europe in this timeline. Do we have a map of the current situation going down in North America?

Not all of Europe, just a lot of it. In fairness, some of that resentment will be directed right back at them. The Italians signed on to the motion because the US took two of the armored warships being constructed for them in New York and turned them into the USS Maine and USS New York, only one of which survived the Battle of Sandy Hook. While these nations don't mind tweaking America's nose, Prussia and Russia are more pro-US, but can't do a thing about it.

The most recent map of the front lines was put out here, and it hasn't changed too much. I'll be making an accurate map of the post-war world once I finish Chapters 111 and 112.