Ha! That would be quite a static history in comparison! No, by TTL 2023 a few of those definitely won't exist!
Wrapped in Flames: The Great American War and Beyond
- Thread starter EnglishCanuck
- Start date
Ha! That would be quite a static history in comparison! No, by TTL 2023 a few of those definitely won't exist!
Also, wow! Over 600,000 views! What a way to end 2023 for TTL! Thank you to all the readers and commenters to keep this going!
Japan having a larger economy than Spain in 1870? Is that different than OTL?
The Confederates not being in the top 10 despite having a better economy is expected considering they are mostly agrarian. That the US is one of the biggest economies in 1870 is surprising as I thought losing the war and their internal problems would put them in the top 20, not the top 10.
The one about China is rather interesting. Does that mean there are two Chinas split along the north and south or a rump Qing Dynasty in Manchuria that becomes a Russian puppet while most of China is under the Purple Dragon Dynasty? Probably the latter as the 'Year in Review' post has Zeng Guofeng as the future emperor of China rather than one of the future emperors of China.
The one about China is rather interesting. Does that mean there are two Chinas split along the north and south or a rump Qing Dynasty in Manchuria that becomes a Russian puppet while most of China is under the Purple Dragon Dynasty? Probably the latter as the 'Year in Review' post has Zeng Guofeng as the future emperor of China rather than one of the future emperors of China.
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Lamberts "Sir John Fishers Naval Revolution" and Kellys "Tirpitz and the Imperial German Navy" are also quite good, and im about to read Clarks "The Sleepwalkers" ...so many books and so little time!
Oh! An uncertain future! As a Prussophilically inclined man i just hope the kingdom stays extant in some way shape or form til present day even though its not the main focus of the TL. Great TL by the way if I havent said so previously!
France might get involved ITTL's Brothers War, their adventure into Mexico being more of a success and installing Max there could both embolden them and cause them to seek closer ties with Austria. Prussia at this point would not be in a position to contest the French military yet and with France coming in defence of Austria it would probably cause the south German States to either stay neutral or join their side.
The list is based on Angus Madison's work showcasing and forecasting economies. But Japan post-Meiji did have a larger economy than Spain because Spain drastically mismanaged theirs.
The Confederacy would be in the top 20, probably 16th place by 1870 as much of the Upper South would be more reestablished by then.
I haven't posted in a while, but I have to say thatvim shocked by the end of the war! You played so cagey for so many years about the length that I was convinced you were going to extend it to 1866 even though my heart told me it would be all but done in 1864.
I'm really loving your take on McClellan and his role on the peace process. His struggles seem very real for a man who expects to be followed, even if his actions don't necessarily lead to that. And the conference just being totally partisan and bungled was a brilliant way to end the conflict. Even Lincoln would have had a hard time handling it once it was agreed to. Even him navigating the postwar world is proving to be interesting and I'm loving all the references to the "New Men".
The peace treaty sees a lot of shocking things... especially for Virginia. The Old Dominion got hammered by that peace and I'm surprised nobody stuck up harder for it. The sting of losing the counties around Washington without being compensated by anything, on top of losing West Virginia (with its legal right to exist being extremely dodgy) just added insult to injury. I expect there's some very hard opinions about that in the immediate aftermath. Maryland likewise gets thrown to the wolves despite the long occupation and (tepid) Confederate support. Kentucky being a coin flip left spinning in the air is a great image for a now broken nation that now has to navigate being two separate entities. It's going to be great to see how the Confederacy handles its newfound independence and how the USA reacts to sharing a continent it never really did historically.
You've done an amazing job and I can say that this should be considered one of the great timeliness on this site. Glad to see you're still at it and always curious to see where it goes.
I'm really loving your take on McClellan and his role on the peace process. His struggles seem very real for a man who expects to be followed, even if his actions don't necessarily lead to that. And the conference just being totally partisan and bungled was a brilliant way to end the conflict. Even Lincoln would have had a hard time handling it once it was agreed to. Even him navigating the postwar world is proving to be interesting and I'm loving all the references to the "New Men".
The peace treaty sees a lot of shocking things... especially for Virginia. The Old Dominion got hammered by that peace and I'm surprised nobody stuck up harder for it. The sting of losing the counties around Washington without being compensated by anything, on top of losing West Virginia (with its legal right to exist being extremely dodgy) just added insult to injury. I expect there's some very hard opinions about that in the immediate aftermath. Maryland likewise gets thrown to the wolves despite the long occupation and (tepid) Confederate support. Kentucky being a coin flip left spinning in the air is a great image for a now broken nation that now has to navigate being two separate entities. It's going to be great to see how the Confederacy handles its newfound independence and how the USA reacts to sharing a continent it never really did historically.
You've done an amazing job and I can say that this should be considered one of the great timeliness on this site. Glad to see you're still at it and always curious to see where it goes.
I had wondered how far they might slip, but with the economy opened up after the end of the British blockade, and money still being made from out West and the resumption of trade, I figure that they'd still have roughly the same economic energy they did in OTL's 1870, especially with the settlement of the West and the post-war railroad boom, though there I'm getting ahead of myself...
Even shorn of the 10-15% of the US economy absent the Confederacy (in pure industrial power rather than whole economic power, where it gets a bit more difficult to measure), the US was still by far one of the largest economies in the world in 1860, here being knocked behind Russia and only marginally ahead of France.
Got it in one!
There is going to be some shenanigans with Manchuria, as the new Emperor of the (undecided) Dynasty is going to wrestle with the issue of whether he should annex the Manchu heartland or whether it might better serve as a buffer between China and Russia. The alternate development of China is one of those other big things I'm going to be exploring.
Chapter 115: Our New Frontiers
Chapter 115: Our New Frontiers
“I have very large ideas of the mineral wealth of our Nation. I believe it practically inexhaustible. It abounds all over the western country, from the Rocky Mountains to the Pacific, and its development has scarcely commenced... Immigration, which even the war has not stopped, will land upon our shores hundred of thousands more per year from overcrowded Europe. I intend to point them to the gold and silver that waits for them in the West. Tell the miners from me, that I shall promote their interests to the utmost of my ability; because their prosperity is the prosperity of the Nation, and we shall prove in a very few years that we are indeed the treasury of the world.” - Abraham Lincoln to Schuyler Colfax, 1865
July 1865
Atchinson, Kansas,
The morning sky was a broad expanse, dazzling in the dawn with golden hues and long wisps of cloud stretching across the sky. The town was packed with the signs of the westward expanding American settlement. From a population of only 2,500 in 1860, it had exploded to double that by 1865, and new buildings were being constructed almost daily. From hardscrabble shacks to fine saloons and hotels, accompanied by farriers shops, dry goods stores, and warehouses. Even during the war, thousands had streamed West and out of the East into the vast unsettled territories opened up by the Homestead Act.
A team of six horses waited patiently in their traces. The four men waiting on the coach which would begin their journey westward eyed the horizon where the expected Concord was to meet them.
“She’s running late,” Schuyler Colfax, the Republican Senator from Indiana and Speaker of the House mused.
“It is a vast country, I think we should offer the coachman some slack,” William Bross, Lt. Governor of Illinois said.
“Six weeks at fastest speed from Kansas to the Pacific gentlemen,” their third companion, journalist Samuel Bowes said. “But, perhaps, the much delayed railroad from the East will reduce that to mere days.”
“Think of it,” Bross said, staring whimsically at the horizon. “A great railroad running with all the commerce of the East to the Pacific, and bringing back with it the riches of Asia, cutting down time and shipping costs.”
“Not to mention gentlemen, allowing our nation to defend both coasts,” the fourth and final man, Major General Patrick E. O’Connor said.
All four nodded at the implication. Bowes had been in the West during the British invasion of California, and had reported extensively on the occupation and skirmishing between the British forces. He was also experienced with the West, knowing more than any of the other men besides O’Connor. Now Shcuyler had to see it for himself, this was the future of the nation. The new frontier of expansion. Perhaps the last frontier, with all the madness in Washington.
As if reading his mind General O’Connor spoke up. “With respect, Mr. Schuyler, would it not be better to be in Washington at this time. There are… ah… many issues being decided.”
“General O’Connor, the madness in Washington now is all but useless for me to preside. That is a matter that we are told the states will decide.” He could barely keep the skepticism out of his voice. O’Connor declined to contradict him.
“For now gentlemen, let us look West, there is much to see. I assure you the trip will be memorable,” Bowes said.
Schuyler, looking at the vast expanse ahead of them, couldn’t help but agree. There were mysteries yet to be discovered, resources unearthed, and vast empty stretches of farmland to be put to plough. In his mind's eye, he could see it all, a nation stretching unbroken from the Atlantic to the Pacific. The flag of the United States would fly unbroken from the shores to either end, and citizens, free men who did not truck in human flesh, would be the masters of this domain.
The rattling of axles and the whinny of horses told him that the future was some time off yet. Looking at the horizon a stage rolled towards them, the horses moving at a trot, the driver seeming glad of the signs of civilization ahead of him. Perhaps the roll of civilization had a ways to go yet.
As the Concord rolled into town, it became clear they’d had some trouble. One horse was missing from the team, and arrows peppered the wagon. The driver visibly sagged with relief as they arrived, while the man riding shotgun seemed to lower his guard. The land was far from tamed.
An anxious group of settlers clambered from the stage, each looking relieved to be setting foot under the protection of the United States flag again. One woman and her three small children practically stumbled in the direction of their party with relief in her eyes.
“Sirs, I beg you not to go West! Not one hundred and fifty miles from here we were set upon by a party of savage Indians! We lost one horse but only speed and a volley of gunshots sped the savages on their way!”
Schuyler patted her shoulder.
“Fear not madam, we are all well armed,” he said, patting the gun at his hip. “We are traveling that way and I dare say any savages will be in for a rude surprise if they stumble upon our party.” He cast a glance over his shoulder as a company of cavalry trotted up the street towards them.
General O’Connor, on his way north to the Powder River country, had determined it would not do for the Speaker of the House to end up scalped and so had donated a company of cavalry to ensure such did not happen. He was accompanying them part of the way on their journey, then returning to military business, leaving some scouts to ensure their safe arrival in California.
Schuyler, meanwhile, knew his business was West. Soon enough he would have to double back east again to that next of vipers in Washington, but he was determined to see this last edge of the American frontier that beckoned.
-x-x-x-x-
Westward the Course of Empire Takes its Way, 1861
Westward the Course of Empire Takes its Way, 1861
“American expansion across the Western frontier had continued in spite of, and in some cases even because of, the war. Though immigration had slowed to a trickle, tens of thousands had still crossed into the frontier between 1861-65. Some looking for brighter futures, others fleeing economic misfortune in the East. The official end of the war in July of 1865 sent a swell of settlers west again, with the boom of towns on the frontier from Kansas and Missouri, into the territories bordering the 49th parallel.
The call of Manifest Destiny, however truncated and interrupted, remained real. The need to settle the continent from the Atlantic to the Pacific still loomed large in American thinking, and it was a duty that many saw as necessary. Even with the new boundary lines, the vast majority of that territory was still in the United States. Though the issue of free and slave state was, for now, settled by a government unwilling to compromise further with the Slave Power. The territories were for free men and free enterprise. The end of the war called them once again to settle and bring progress forward.
However, it also resumed in earnest the bloodshed which had, effectively, been on hold since the hostilities in the East had opened.
With the political attention wandering once again to the West, the ongoing violence against settlers, and the perceived if not imagined loss of control over many Indian groups was a prevailing issue in Washington. Most alarmingly from Washington’s perspective was the cutting of the Sante Fe Trail by the Comanche and the Kiowa, which had so badly hampered efforts to fight the Confederate forces in Arizona. It was here where the westward expansion of the United States would meet one of its worst roadblocks. The ferocity of the Comanche had effectively driven the settlers over one hundred and fifty miles out of their territory, and the new border between the United States and the Confederacy added not just the problem of geography, but the issue of legal boundaries to that war. It was a scourge that would take Washington and Richmond some time to settle…
The Sioux and Cheyenne continued their own fierce resistance in the Colorado War, while the encroachment of settlers would lead to further cycles of violence, resulting in the ill fated Powder River Expedition in the late summer and fall of 1865. Generally regarded as a failure, General O’Connor’s forces burned some villages, but lost more men to thirst and exhaustion than they did to enemy action, while the tribes of the Powder River were able to easily avoid his large, cumbersome columns. The result would lead to the battles and negotiations of 1866 which would so vex politicians in Washington.
The efforts by the United States government to arrest the political independence of the Indian peoples would continue well into that next year, marking an increase in violence that would not again be seen until the 1870s…” - Staking Claims to a Continent: The North American Revolutions of the 1860s, James Latimer, Anansi Press, 2017
on the bright side mauve the large scale violence would lead to the natives getting some wins.on the other side..I doubt it
As ever, thank you for your commentary! Glad you've enjoyed and I've always been happy to hear your thoughts!
Yeah, McClellan was probably a class above as an engineer and administrator, a mediocre general, and an utterly abysmal politician. He didn't really seem to have many instincts, and avoided tough political battles rather than fight them (going so far OTL as to simply avoid speaking to even many politicians who supported him because he didn't like wheeling and dealing during the lead up to the 1864 election). That, I think, shows how he really would not have a handle on the political situation leading up to the treaty.
I think you're right that Lincoln would also have had difficulty navigating these circumstances, however, he at least had the skill to have probably forced the vote the way he wanted!
And I hope your interest in the New Men continues!
The Old Dominion entered the war so bravely, only to lose the most out of any Confederate state in the peace settlement! That's absolutely going to rustle some feathers, as you say!
I do have plenty of ideas for Confederate independence, and how it navigates the world. Some of it good, and more than a little bad!
Thank you! It's commentary like this that keeps me going!
What's proven of extreme interest to me in the last little while is how that in this period, it was one of the few times the United States was signing treaties not in its interest (Red Cloud's War for instance) while also claiming great swathes of the Continent despite having only tenuous political control over it in the face of existing and competing Indigenous claims that at times were enforced in blood.
The Sioux and Comanche are the most fascinating in this period as, partly due to geography and partly to military skill, they carved out essentially separate nations inside the US for a long time. The Comanche and the Kiowa are going to be interesting as they now occupy space (primarily in Texas/Indian Territory but also Kansas) that makes it very difficult for the US and the Confederacy to stamp them out without a united effort.
A practical map of North America in 1866 will look very different indeed.
I wonder then, are we going to see an American Great Game play out between the Confederates and Union? IIRC there's no "unclaimed territory" left in the West but the area between the Mississippi and the Rockies is still only sparsely settled and heavily contested with the indigenous groups, wonder what would happen if Confederate settlers tried to create their own homesteads in the untamed West?
Not quite a great game, the Treaty of Havana did spell out the Western frontier for each side, with the Confederacy getting their little Arizona Territory, and the Indian Territory. So moving north of that imaginary line just makes you a Yankee! No one is quite ready to risk a war over that. Especially when there's easier prey...
There is however, room for groups like the Comanche and Apache to make life hell for either side since bitter feelings will make neither side super interested in cooperation on the Indian question in the immediate future. How long they can maintain such a good thing is an open question, but certainly one with consequences down the line!
Speaking of the Native peoples, the upcoming chapter deals with one last gasp for some unfortunates north of the 49th parallel!
Merry Christmas to all! May you have a restful holiday and I'll see you all again after Boxing Day for the next chapter!
Chapter 116: Rushing Gold and Blood
Chapter 116: Rushing Gold and Blood
“I am now convinced that it is utterly impossible, through any means within our power, to close the gold districts against the entrance of foreigners, as long as gold is found in abundance, in which case the country will soon be over-run.” - Sir John Douglas, 1858
“The war had driven most economic energy in the separate colonies of British Columbia and Victoria into the coastal enclaves and Fraser River Valley mining and settlements, ensuring that the energy of the colony was pointed south. Timber barons sprang up, and the Nanaimo coal fields suddenly became of paramount importance to the British Empire. That, and the itinerant miners striking out either on new work opportunities, taking land grants, or otherwise being unsupported by the wartime economic situation, meant that the Indigenous peoples of British Columbia’s interior and northern Pacific slope were largely unmolested between 1862 to 1864 save for trade with Victoria.
However, the end of the war and the early 1865 discovery of gold in Cariboo put an end to such isolation[1].
Suddenly, the pent up energy of the abated gold rushes of early 1862 saw thousands streaming north to exploit this supposedly rich new vein of gold. In doing so they displaced the original Shuswap peoples[2] to an extent never before seen. Despite the Shuswap working as guides and laborers, the miners and settlers encroached on their traditional hunting grounds, burned or repurposed their seasonal camps, and overtaxed the local ecosystem by hunting and fishing beyond what it could bear, threatening the people with starvation.
This was repeated in microcosm across much of northern British Columbia, and made worse by the expansion of roads into the interior to substitute the rough trails used by miners and settlers. The coastal Chilcotin[3] peoples of the northwest also had their land infringed upon. When teamsters and road surveyors threatened a party of Chilcotin hunters if they did not share their catch, violence ensued in late May.
Seven men were killed and another four taken hostage. Word quickly got back to Chief Klattasine of the Chilcotin peoples of what had taken place. With his own band of warriors, he reasoned that they might be able to fight and compel the whites to settle the land question in his favor, and potentially keep their distance from the disease they knew that whites spread. Klattasine decided to go on the warpath, and four other chiefs joined him…
News of the Chilcotin decision to fight spread inland, and soon many of the Okanogan and other northern bands had decided to fight as well. This was, to their thinking, the last chance to properly hem the whites out of their territory after the Fraser Canyon War where miners had killed countless Indigenous people with relative impunity. The Shuswap,Stu'wix, and Nlaka'pamux peoples all agreed to join the Chilcotin in their fight. This was made easier by the tragic death of Chief Nkwala of the Okanogan peoples who commanded great respect amongst the tribes, and his son, Chilliheetza, did not command the same respect as his late father. Though he managed to keep many of the Okanogan bands out of the ensuing fighting he could not keep many of his father’s allies from the raiding…
By June bands of warriors fell on mining camps, isolated farmsteads, and attacked the wagon roads, sending general panic through the interior. As many as 1,000 warriors may have been taking part in these raids, but the numbers are difficult to define and subject to exaggeration by a hysterical press of the time. Reports as exaggerated as 2,000 would eventually filter down to New Westminster, prompting Governor Seymour to speak with Arthur Kennedy in Victoria to involve Her Majesty’s Navy…” - The Colonial History of British Columbia, Thomas Scott, Victoria, 1989
The Cariboo Road
“Despite the 99th being earmarked for operations in New Zealand, the sudden descent of Indian warriors on the population prompted Governors Arthur Kennedy and Frederick Seymour to request that Admiral John Kingcome override the orders sending them away. Kingcome agreed and beseeched Lt. Colonel Reeves to plan with him for a means of confronting the rebellions in the interior.
The plan settled on in July of 1865 demanded that separate columns of the 99th be sent into the interior to confront the trouble. One column under Major John Dunne consisting of 360 men of the 99th, 25 Royal Engineers and 50 militia and guides would embark overland, supported by a smaller force of 60 men moving by steamer up the Fraser River under the command of Captain (Bvt Major) Patrick Johnston. The aim was to calm the inhabitants, restore order in the mining camps, and bring the rebelling Indians to heel.
Another force, primarily under the auspices of the Navy, would move up the coast with 150 men from the 99th and 200 Royal Marines and armed sailors to pacify the Chilcot peoples…
The movements up the Cariboo Road and through the interior were fraught with danger. The Indian war parties knew to avoid the large columns of soldiers, but would be compelled to battle whenever their camps were approached. Dunne’s column would often get into small skirmishes, pursue, and then return to the trail. However, Dunne was less interested in the skirmishes as he was with finding hunting camps and villages and destroying them so that “come winter the people and their chiefs will see the sense in respecting the wishes of Her Majesty’s government and respect for all time the strength of the white men.”
Between August and October the columns covered hundreds of miles and drove the various bands who did not submit back into the interior. Twenty nine separate villages were burned and thousands of the northern Indians driven to privation. Johnston’s force worked to interdict and capture marauding bands or bring refugees to heel, largely sending any surrendering groups south under escort…
The naval campaign was marked, to an astonishing degree, by the use of indiscriminate violence. Anything other than the production of a white flag by the denizens of a coastal village was met with shelling and a shore party setting the village aflame and leaving a proclamation that all peoples must surrender to the Colonial government. Even the otherwise peaceful Chilcot peoples not involved in the raids were thrown into confusion by these tactics and for a brief period, it seemed the whole Chilcot nation was at war with Britain.
However, the violence soon paved the way for compliance, and by the spring of 1866, after an especially hard winter and the devastating outbreak of cholera amongst the many refugees, almost all the chiefs would surrender. Klattasine himself would turn up for negotiations to British forces. However, he was simply arrested, tried for murder and hung as a rebel in a lasting mark of cruelty against the Indian peoples.
…the campaign came to a close in November of 1865, and few attacks are recorded in the winter of 1865-66.” - Empire and Blood: British Military Operations in the 19th Century Volume IV.
“The Cariboo War, as it came to be known, would end up costing the lives of roughly 200 miners and colonists and another 36 soldiers and militia. It is estimated that at least 189 Indigenous warriors died in the direct fighting, while at least 2,000 noncombatants would perish from privation either in the wilderness or camps erected to control the population in the south. Worse, over the winter of 1865-66 disease became endemic to the displaced peoples who would die in their thousands.
Though no firm number has ever been established, it is estimated that between 10-20,000 Indigenous people[4] would perish from disease and starvation, forcing all the tribes south of the Queen Charlotte Islands[5] to seek peace and sustenance from the government…
In the aftermath of the Cariboo War, the government of British Columbia would find itself with not only a further 400,000$ in debt, added to the expanding 1,450,000$ of the construction of the Cariboo Road and war costs. This was coupled with an expanding population of miners and migrants in search of “cleared territory” that had been rumored to be available cheap in 1866…
Budget costs and other pressures would force the combination of the colonies of Vancouver Island and British Columbia into one united colony in 1866. The new United Colony would face an increasing uphill economic challenge, and fears of encroachment from the south…” - The Colonial History of British Columbia, Thomas Scott, Victoria, 1989
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1] This means that the devastating 1862 Pacific Northwest Smallpox epidemic did not happen as OTL. Leaving many of these groups untouched and largely untroubled by settlers. Not for long.
2] Secwépemc peoples
3] Tsilhqotʼin peoples
4] Roughly the same number who died in the OTL epidemic, but sadly more from battle and privation.
5] The modern Haida Gwaii