Now i'm awake, and i have to say, that was a pretty sick line to end on!
Time to bring out the notes, i still have some things on the Tobago colony, but i've 1. Already elaborated enough on it a time ago 2. Grown weary of revisiting any notes about the Caribbean, that's what a month of writing up an uni essay did to me. Other of the hypothetical questions you raised gave me the imaginative itch, though, so let's go with this first:
What the heck is going on in Catalunya?
Although the Reaper's War (damn it how i love this name) started IOTL only in 1640 - so after the PoD, although near enough that it can be argued events ain't being butterflied yet - by the PoD of the story things were already fairly railroaded towards the Catalans revolting. Rebel leaders Pau Claris and Francesc de Tamarit would be elected as President and military member of the Generality (i.e, the self-government) of Catalunya, and by 1639 the peasants were already rebelling against having to quarter royal troops. Tensios were brewing for a long time, truly, the Count-Duke of Olivares was establishing a policy of redistributing the military obligations of the Monarchy towards the non-Castilian crowns, and the Catalans were the biggest enemies of such policy, because implementing it meant that the King was ignoring provisions established by the
Constitutions, and the Catalan nobility took their law-code
very seriously.
There's two ways you can play with butterflies here: IOTL, the Generality declared a Republic for great-lasting...four days, until Louis XIII, King of France, was acclaimed as Count of Barcelona (and consequently, Prince of Catalunya). A few days latter, Montjuïc happened, and by properly defending Barcelona, the Generality consolidated its mid-term existence, but its long-term one was threatened by the same things that made it able to try for independence in the first place: Peasant rebels were refocusing their targetting, from the Castilians towards their own nobility, people didn't like to be thrown from Spain to France, they revolted against quartering royal armies and ended up quartering royal armies for their nobility's sake, it was seen as high-order betrayal big time. Meanwhile, the French threatened its existence by basically being very unreliable (but not poor) allies, if the Generality tried to go way too rogue the french would just say "well but isn't Louis XIII your count? You decided it, now stick with us!", and the main advances of the alliance in the Catalan front ended up with the conquered cities of Rousillon going into french (and not catalan) administration.
Long-term what threw the Catalans under the bus was the campaigns in the south, if they had recaptured at least Tarragona or Tortosa (besides not losing Lleida) under Houdancourt, they could've hopes of surviving after the main european war went peace-mode, and the french became disinterested into the whole Catalan affair, and then its fairly limited support vs. the King of Castile and a fair chunk of their own people that denounce the Generality as traitors for "giving the country to the French" (quoting it, but that's exactly what they did, tbh).
Butterflies can make, somehow, popular discontent to boil up, i'd think that if the Generality gets defeated early on, the peasant rebels would take over the Reaper movement (or, thinking better, they were the "Reaper movement" who got hijacked) and create a weird dynamic in the Franco-Spanish War where there would be a piece of the front on active rebellion against any armies crossing it, would it result in something long-lasting? Probably not, but it can if given proper negligence, and the spaniards are more likely to be negligent with peasants that took over the country roads than with the entire nobility revolting, especially considering the whole war thing going on against France. Otherwise, you can have the Franco-Catalan thing going on be more successful, getting Tortosa or Tarragona or keeping Lleida, just enough for it to not die when the spaniards stop being distracted by the European war. I can see a stronger Generality trying to peace out the King during the Fronde revolt, proposing to break the whole Franco-Catalan commitment (and therefore closing a front) for recognition. I don't think it would be particularly successful ("ah yes you can be independent main economic hub of one of the my Kingdoms, it just requires stop allying with the french!"), but it can change the dynamics between France and Catalunya considerably i think, since the latter is threatening to go more on the independent side, also would be funny as fuck to have a three-way war where both sides of the Pyrenees treat Catalunya as their subject rebelling (though i'd think the french would honest just make a weak show for it, they kinda didn't care IOTL after Westphalia, they would just be aggressive on the probable catalan attempts to rightfully take over the administration of Rousillon).
Also, note that the OTL Reaper's War was important towards the "end" of the Arauco War in America, since costs were raising so much that the King basically ordered the colonial administration to
treaty with the Mapuche, it was the first time the Spanish recognized indigenous sovereignty (and arguably would still be the only time 'til the end of Empire).
But replacing Kentucky Bourbon Whiskey with Kentucky Vasa Aquavit would sure be cool!
On that, i'd like to point that a significant part of New Sweden's colonial population was composed by Finns, as they were the Kingdom's most "migratable" people, "migratable" being with more to gain migrating, especially in the latter-end of the colony (during Dutch administration, 50% of the population was Finns!), besides, the New Sweden colony had as primary allies the Maryland-warring
Susquehannock, that kept the catholic colony wayyy at bay until being attacked by the Mohawk in 1651, which compelled them to treaty with the Marylanders. I honestly became surprised by the non-intervention of New Sweden in this affair, but this is roughly in the same time the Dutch built up Fort Casimir to confront Fort Christina in the Susquehannock trade, so maybe the alliance was weakened by that. Unrelated but since the Finns practiced slash-and-burn agriculture, they live fairly similar lives to the Lenape and Susquehannock natives, i always found the idea of a Finno-Amerindian country culture in the interior of the Delaware-Maryland-New Jersey region to be oddly satisfying, such thing could actually improve the odds of long-term survival for the swedish colony, even. And though you said it isn't actually in the scope of the timeline - and that's perfectly understandable, it's always better to focus on rhe least amount of things possible - i can't help but think that in the grand scheme this may become relevant, even if it would be to receive the "letter treatment" (which is not a bad thing, i love letter chapters!).
To the notes proper:
- Kinda (a lot) speculative, but i wonder if once in exile, the Kettlers won't just go bonkers in marriage policy? Like, i don't see the sons and daughters (and grandson and granddaughters??? Unknowable how long the exile will be, lol) exiled Duke of the farthest and politically weakest Baltic country to be the best of marriage matches in Europe, and one could argue that at the same time, it isn't exactly good practice to just go shopping in the lower (poorer) nobility of Europe, although Germany would be the main target on this, if made. The Kettlers in exile would be in the position to make...Unorthodox marriage things, understand that as you may, i don't know...Maybe
Queen Nzinga manages to finish the Portuguese in Angola (during the Dutch occupation of Luanda, at one point the portuguese were reduced to their inland fortress of
Massangano, which Nzinga could've won by achieving victory at Kavanga in 1646, or by the dutch having any form of artillery whatsoever after their alliance won at Kombi a year later, i think the first one best because it would put Dutch Angola at peril (since the Dutch kind of broke their alliance by just letting the portuguese stay in the inland presidios, and Nzinga went there and conquered them properly). All of this shenanigan is just to say: Matamba-Ndongo has direct access to the coast (they lost it to treaty with the portuguese in the 1650s, if you're wondering) by the time the Kettlers are around in Fernau, and then suddenly her (Christian-from-birth)
sister's grandchildren are marriageable! And that was a hell of a tangent oh my god sorry
(the apology part was written now!)
- What about Italy? It seems that nothing has touched directly such far and distant lands, and things are tracking as IOTL, i guess, besides the Christina chapter, lol, that was a fun one to read (but my non-english-speaking grandma became severely confused by me walking around looking at the cellphone speaking out-loud
"fahk iuu alex ozestcherna" at-sync with the chapter. The region was rebounding from a
Great Plague as of the PoD, but to be honest, while the rest of Europe was tearing itself apart, Italy was remarkably quiet in the late 1630s and early 1640s, serious stuff just happens in the Pope vs. Parma
First War of Castro, which honestly, just read the wiki article, it's one of the dumbest wars ever. Talking of dumb wars, butterflies may avoid the
Cretan War, which main cause and pretext was...the Knights taking supplies in Crete after a
particularly political-sensitive raid. It may not avoid the war forever, the Köprülü family probably put Crete as target after gaining power - Because it's the easier way into military legitimacy - but it probably doesn't result in a 25-year war with a similarly-long siege of a city. Beyond that, there's the whole...
SPQN incident, i don't know what could be done with it, but it's interesting enough to point out.
- Since Courland holds Santa Helena, i think Brazil is relevant! But i'm assuming you would let the
revolt against dutch rule go as IOTL, since you refrained from touching too much in North America. As i have mentioned (i actually didn't mention it, but i mentioned the Dutch allowing the portuguese in the presidios, so now you know why) in the Nzinga tangent, the Dutch sorted out a peace treaty with the Portuguese, because now they were revolting against the Spanish, so technically
New Holland, aka, Dutch Brazil, was a safe colony. But ever since
Maurice of Nassau left the government (was taken out of it, really, the company thought he was spending way too much, lol), the WIC did WIC things and got the locals mad, making them rebel against Dutch rule. The thing is that the rebellion could've been suffocated early kinda easily at the beggining (the portuguese would sponsor it only in 1649), the uprising got off truly after the
Battle of the Tabocas' Mount, and you was a pretty even engagement, the problem being poor preparation from the dutch due to considering the rebels way too "ragtag" (while they actually knew the terrain, y'know?). But that's just the brazilian me trying to highlight my country in the timeline