The Dukes of Fernau, for now.

RIP the signaller.
Clear evidence showed he was a pervert and pyromaniac. He had to die.

And so the invaders reveal their identity…
You will like what the next entry reveals, then. No spoilers, though.

I am blessed with both momentum and free time this weekend, so it's likely I keep up my daily or almost-daily pace for a bit. The isolated, local scope of these last 4 entries has made them extremely easy to write. (As a rookie timeline writer, this is something I'll have to remember in planning future writing.)
Alas, I return to more challenging writing in the entry after the next. Details and possibilities have been dancing in my head for weeks (some since last summer, but our little Baltic world has revealed itself more now). I have also very deliberately left out the telling of diplomacy after our Memel chapters, so I'm well aware these last hyper-local entries have failed to provide readers with information on Polish vassalage or anything else... international.
In this way, you're experiencing this with the same cares and knowledge of most of the locals depicted in "The Wooden Middle Finger" - most wouldn't even be aware of Courland's international relations, and those that would be still wouldn't put that top of mind as news of an invasion came along.
 
"I think so, sir. That madman is telling us to fuck ourselves with a fucking weathervane."

"Fuck it. Shoot him."
I audibly laughed at this, the guy was considered killworthy for doing his job.
most wouldn't even be aware of Courland's international relations, and those that would be still wouldn't put that top of mind as news of an invasion came along.
"Let's escape to the coast!" being one of the main conclusions for the message-workers highlights this.
 
45. Mitau, Semigallia, October 1655.
The Wooden Middle Finger - part five

Mitau, having been the capital of the Duchy for much of the last century, had a greater density of nobles in and around it than nearly anywhere else in Courland and Semigallia. From their perspective, the only difference between any of them and their Duke was who outranked whom among everyone's grandfathers and great-grandfathers when they had been Catholic Knights inconveniencing Livs, Kurs, Selonians or any other Baltic peoples. Grandpa Gotthard must have been Gott-er than everyone else's grandfathers, possibly hard-er, so know being top of the pile was to be Kettler.

And if you were also the descendant of a Livonian Sword Brother, but now you felt more like the descendant of the Livonian Sword Bastard Nephew, while Jakob got to be Livonian Royal Gottfather, you resisted him.

Duke Jakob wants you to raise infantry? No.
Duke Jakob wants you to raise cavalry? No.
Duke Jakob asks you to put one of his Gambian semaphores on that hill on your land? No.
Duke Jakob offers for you to the be the first to know when something happens elsewhere in the Duchy? Well, yes!
Oh, but that comes with having the semaphore on the hill? Well, then. No.
Then Jakob asks you to let him raise infantry and cavalry since you won't? Also no. No all the way up to the King of Poland and Grand Duke of Lithuania. That was somewhat the way Jakob's father got exiled. Well, not quite. William had noble blood on his hands too.

- - -

Chancellor Fölkersamb hastily convened all the nobles he could at Mitau castle. Some whose estates were a little further afield might show up later. But the code from the semaphores said invasion, and the signal had arrived from the north...

"Gentlemen, let's not keep waiting. An hour ago, we received a code telling us Courland is under invasion."

"Explain, Chancellor."

"As you may know," Fölkersamb was confident some among them didn't know, and willfully not, "Mitau sits at the intersection of two lines of our semaphore network. One goes from Libau to Kreuzburg and Dünaburg. The other heads northwest to Tuckum, where it meets a line from Slock to Windau. We received the code for invasion from Tukums."

"So, Windau or Slock, or somewhere between?"

"Yes. Anywhere south of Windau, we would almost certainly have received the code from the West first. The Duke invites you to prepare for the defence of Mitau."

"The good Duke does, does he?"

"The good Duke has provided you with guns, powder, this castle, and above all else time. If an army is coming here, you are blessed with hours to days to prepare to meet it."

No one seemed particularly hurried.

"The same conversation is being had in Bauske by now. Most of the Duke's soldiers are on the coast, but he has a thousand there and here. With the men you've promised, enough for both to hold for a time."

"Some of our men may be marching to, ah, defend the Düna frontier instead. You know, we have trade interests there, like the Duke."

"The Duke provided conditional orders in the event of such a response. He has 650 men here, and not one will defend the estates of any nobles who fail to defend Mitau."

"As if he even engages with us enough to know where we live..."

"The Duke has excellent maps. There are even maps of where the barracks might have been built had you consented to an army."

"Well, Chancellor, I suppose I'll take my men to defend my land, and I'll be sure to send a rider to the castle to keep you all informed of how that's going."

Fölkersamb was ready to inform the man that Duke Jacob had conditional orders for that possibility, too, but he was interrupted by the entrance of one of the Duke's soldiers. The Chancellor waved the breathless man to himself, denying the others in the room the privilege of receiving the man's news simultaneously.

"Gentlemen, I hope your relations with your Russian friends and trading partners are as strong as you say. The semaphores from the east say we are under invasion that way, too."
 
46. Libau, Courland, October 1655.
The Fleet, the Flight - part one

"Men, Women, and Youth of Libau - today is a day of decision for us all. We have learned that Courland and Semigallia are being invaded by neighbours. I do not know precisely who and I do not know precisely where. We have this knowledge thanks to our Gambian semaphores, which send only a tiny bit of information, but send it much faster than a messenger on horseback ever could. Somewhere to the east, foreign soldiers are on our land. It could be Sweden, or Russia, or maybe even Lithuania. Probably not Lithuania. It could be two of these. It could be one of these in two different places. And... it probably does not make a difference which. Sweden alone could overpower us. Russia alone could overpower us.

"We have built up so much together, while I have been your Duke. Courland and Semigallia grow, make, ship and sell so much, from the Baltic to the Caribbean to the South Atlantic. We have gained wealth in trade, in knowledge, in craft, in influence. And today, so much of that is at risk. Our neutrality has not been respected.

"However!

"However.... even if we lack the army to defend Courland against powerful enemies. There are still preparations we've made for this day. Perhaps you expect to be treated nearly as well by Sweden or Russia. If so, keep your life and livelihood here. When wars and diplomacy are sorted out, I aim to restore this Duchy to everything we have made it together over the last seventeen years.

"Some of you may not expect good treatment from our invaders. It could be your ties to me, your religion, your trade or your knowledge. I repeat to you today the same offer I have given to every resident of this Duchy, as well as to a great number of its friends from other nations. If you would prefer to come to our colonies, we will bring you to our colonies. Every man there may buy or earn his own land, even if he is a peasant or serf in Europe. What we have done here for decades has empowered us to make successful colonies. Success in the colonies has made us all better off. You can still be a part of that. A different part, with more risk and the possibility of more reward.

"Others of you, especially those from elsewhere in Europe, will seek safety in other countries. We may not be able to bring you all the way home, but we will take every one of you we can to the nearest safe port - that might be Bornholm, Kolberg, or Königsberg."

"If it is only Russia invading, it will take over a week for them to reach Libau on foot. If it is Sweden, an army from Riga could reach us overland in days. But we could also expect an attack from the sea at any time, anywhere on our coast. Our ships sail beginning tonight. We have already signalled for our Gambian semaphore line on the coast to extend north of Windau and south all the way to Memel. If we see warships anywhere, this will gain us more time to react. We also have ships extending it outward into the Baltic as well, though not too far out.

"Decide for yourselves if you will remain Courlanders under Sweden, or under Russia, or whether you would remain Courlanders under me, as you have been, but in our colonies. If you choose adventure, that adventure begins no later than dawn tomorrow, and I will have you in Tobago, Bandschul, or Fernau within seven weeks.

"LONG LIVE COURLAND! LONG LIVE SEMIGALLIA!"
 
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From their perspective, the only difference between any of them and their Duke was who outranked whom among everyone's grandfathers and great-grandfathers when they had been Catholic Knights inconveniencing Livs, Kurs, Selonians or any other Baltic peoples. Grandpa Gotthard must have been Gott-er than everyone else's grandfathers, possibly hard-er, so know being top of the pile was to be Kettler.

And if you were also the descendant of a Livonian Sword Brother, but now you felt more like the descendant of the Livonian Sword Bastard Nephew, while Jakob got to be Livonian Royal Gottfather, you resisted him.
This whole pun sequence is both infuriating and very funny, mostly infuriating, but funningly so, i guess? I hate it.
Duke Jakob wants you to raise infantry? No.
Duke Jakob wants you to raise cavalry? No.
Duke Jakob asks you to put one of his Gambian semaphores on that hill on your land? No.
Duke Jakob offers for you to the be the first to know when something happens elsewhere in the Duchy? Well, yes!
Oh, but that comes with having the semaphore on the hill? Well, then. No.
Then Jakob asks you to let him raise infantry and cavalry since you won't? Also no. No all the way up to the King of Poland and Grand Duke of Lithuania. That was somewhat the way Jakob's father got exiled. Well, not quite. William had noble blood on his hands too.
Good to know that the livonian nobility is very useful, indeed.
The Fleet, the Flight
IT'S HAPPENING GUYS
Some of you may not expect good treatment from our invaders. It could be your ties to me, your religion, your trade or your knowledge. I repeat to you today the same offer I have given to every resident of this Duchy, as well as to a great number of its friends from other nations. If you would prefer to come to our colonies, we will bring you to our colonies. Every man there may buy or earn his own land, even if he is a peasant or serf in Europe. What we have done here for decades has empowered us to make successful colonies. Success in the colonies has made us all better off. You can still be a part of that. A different part, with more risk and the possibility of more reward.
This is melancholic, but exciting knowing what's to come. And, why, it just started playing On Melancholy Hill by Gorillaz on my Spotify, my playlists have a thing for syncing with what i'm doing, it's scary sometimes. That said, this scene is very well reflected by the lines "Just looking out on the day of another dream", "So call in the submarine, 'round the world we'll go" and "If you can't get what you want, then you come with me", thinking on it, it's truly kinda scary the musical synthesis going on.
If you choose adventure, that adventure begins no later than dawn tomorrow, and I will have you in Tobago, Bandschul, or Fernau within seven weeks.

"LONG LIVE COURLAND! LONG LIVE SEMIGALLIA!"
The time has come for those who are tired of lying in the sunshine and staying home to watch the rain...Colonial courlanders ain't missing the starting gun! And yes, it started playing Pink Floyd's  Time, a certified classic.

I might turn this timeline into a musical, lol. Somehow.
 
Next-day thoughts, plus a surprising amount of comments to respond to. Let's start with the silliest:

This whole pun sequence is both infuriating and very funny, mostly infuriating, but funningly so, i guess? I hate it.
I cringe at puns myself. And yet, we have one in the very title of this story. I credit and blame my mother, a career English teacher and English-as-a-second-language teacher.

If I ever see a "Fernau" playlist on Spotify, I will know I've identified Talus I of Dixie's Spotify account.

Hope they bring the things they need to jumpstart production capabilities, not just gold.
This week's award for farsighted readership goes to Tirion. You are precisely one chapter early in the main story with this, and one entry in the "Economic Historian Blog" to boot.

Incredibly useful. So useful in fact they are far too crucial to move from their positions to follow the good Duke in his déménagement.
I'll admit I overdid this in the name of writerly convenience. It's a broad sweeping generalization, surely unfair to some nobles in varying degrees. But at a very high level, yes. Courland lacked a decent army for the same reasons Poland did for so long: uncooperative nobles, and leaders who chose not to force the issue even when it was likely the right thing to do. Most of Jakob's ministers/collaborators would be the better nobles. Had this timeline started a generation earlier, Courland nobles real and fictional would have been significant characters. Mostly fictional, because info on the real ones would be very high-effort-for-low-return research.

Let's hope the Russians will have to pay dearly for every inch soon. Long Live Courland! Long Live the Duke!
This ranks right with Talus' grandmother reacting to him reading the Kristina episode out loud as the moments I've most laughed out loud at responses to this story....

...and also segues nicely to my next-day thoughts. OTL's war had Sweden invade the PLC around this time, by land and sea. There was alternating sweetness and pressure on Prussia to flip to the Swedish side. Courland and Semigallia were overrun in 1658, and the entire Kettler family spent the next two years imprisoned in Riga and later Estonia. (Jacob de la Gardie promised the Duchess her gardens - not the special ones of TTL - would be protected during the Swedish occupation. I suppose if I haven't introduced him save to reference his last name once, de la Gardie isn't becoming a character here). Sweden and Russia clawed at each other in and around Livonia for years, in addition to their other relations with other neighbours taking a turn (Denmark! Poland! Prussia! And for a few moments, Lithuania being in personal union with Sweden).

Well, TTL, thanks to Russia already having Inflanty, they have a chance to go around Sweden to get on the Baltic. At this point, Sweden could as plausibly be invading Courland because nom nom Baltic is a standing Swedish policy, because no Russians on the Baltic is a standing Swedish policy, or because that upstart Kettler is annoying seems a reasonable attitude for a warmonger whose fly-speck neighbour still has more ships than Sweden, whatever the proportion of each nation's ships on the Baltic.

And the exile begins...
You are a smidgen early with this, but we'll resolve that soon. Add Bob Marley's Exodus to Talus' soundtrack for this timeline. Courland hopes to relocate capacity to its colonies. Jakob's interest in colonies is based on economics, not political power. Having never set foot in his colonies, I would not expect him to have his plan A be to relocate there, when diplomacy and management and end-point profit-taking are more easily done in Europe. It took this timeline 17 years and about twice as many chapters as I'd expected to bring us to a turning point where enough of Courland's economic strength might be made to pick up again in its colonies. In all that time, my foremost headache has always been plausible reasons why any Kettler or Kettlers would personally choose to move to the colonies rather than staying with friends or allies elsewhere in Europe.
 
If I ever see a "Fernau" playlist on Spotify, I will know I've identified Talus I of Dixie's Spotify account.
If you do, let's keep it a secret :p
and one entry in the "Economic Historian Blog" to boot
Economic Historian Blog was missed, good to know he's soon to return!
This ranks right with Talus' grandmother reacting to him reading the Kristina episode out loud as the moments I've most laughed out loud at responses to this story....
This is a cruel statement, to laugh at the face of one's forlorn hopes, Courland will be back! in two generations or so, but back.
Having never set foot in his colonies, I would not expect him to have his plan A be to relocate there, when diplomacy and management and end-point profit-taking are more easily done in Europe. It took this timeline 17 years and about twice as many chapters as I'd expected to bring us to a turning point where enough of Courland's economic strength might be made to pick up again in its colonies. In all that time, my foremost headache has always been plausible reasons why any Kettler or Kettlers would personally choose to move to the colonies rather than staying with friends or allies elsewhere in Europe.
That's actually a good point, one might think that as long as the Duke has immediate hopes of foreign support to get back on Courland, he has no reason to just settle out in the colonies, and even with no immediate hopes, the best way to react on political developments that may allow for the return of the Kettlers, or anything of the sort, would be to stay in Europe.

But in other terms, one might consider that to effective throw your lot as being the "Duke of Courland's colonies" allow you much more diplomatic and political flexibility, since well, you stop acting like a exilee and start acting like a sovereign ruler with lots of economic potential who just so happens to have as priority getting his old lands back.

It's a knot, i'd say, a good one.
 
47. Libau, Courland, October 1655.
The Fleet, the Flight - part two

The Duke sailed to repeat variations on his speech northward up the coast at Sackenhausen, Paulshafen and Felixberg en route to Windau, watching for any change in the coastal semaphores as they passed. He knew better than most where exactly to look for them. They did not change, and he did not go far inland, regarding the sea as his route to safety.

The single inland exception was Pilten, which he had lately purchased from the Bishop (and technically Prince) of Pilten. Pilten had been an enclave nearly surrounded by Courland. Since paying for it, two things were true: Jakob was now entitled to call himself a Prince of the Holy Roman Empire, and this was the one place where Jakob was sovereign in his own right, for all the good it did. Courland, Semigallia, even his colonies - all were vassals of Poland still. In Pilten, he considered the road not taken. What if the Polish King had refused to grant permission for his succession agreement with his brother-in-law? He wanted full independence for Courland and Semigallia and the colonies, certainly. An independent, wealthy, industrious, neutral Courland. That was ever his dream. And here, in the only corner of his lands subject to no one's suzerainty, did he feel any different? He found he didn't.

He repeated his speech again, tuning it to this audience of people only recently subject to his rule. He still referred to himself only a Duke. Then he returned to the coast.

Jakob Kettler would never again be both in his homeland and out of sight of the sea.

- - -

When Jakob sailed north, he had others share his same message elsewhere. Inland, trusted nobles and men of influence traveled to Goldingen, Hasenpoth and Schrunden - all reachable in a day of hard riding, changing horses often en route. To anywhere deeper, Jakob instead asked that messengers carry letters onward from those towns to bring the message to Mitau, Tuckum, and as far as it could be safely brought toward the farthest corner of his realm in Dünaburg.

Others sailed and rode south to Polangen.

Libau was left in the nominal care of the Duchess. But Louise Charlotte was by now expecting to give birth any day. So Martin claimed for himself the responsibility to deliver his father's message more thoroughly across Libau.

But first he had to understand it.

Then he had to correct it.
 
But Louise Charlotte was by now expecting to give birth any day.
Hope all the "being invaded"-caused stress don't result in pregnancy issues :(...Elsewise:
So Martin claimed for himself the responsibility to deliver his father's message more thoroughly across Libau.

But first he had to understand it.

Then he had to correct it.
Good to see lil' Marty taking a little hold of things, although correct it means that new information is coming, and the last time we got new information, the information was "The Russians are invading, too.", so, uh, it sounds ominous to me.
 
48. Libau, Courland, October 1655.
The Fleet, the Flight - part three

"Martin! Remember your Serra! What would Sir William Petty think!"

Master Zelig was never truly certain whether he loved his job. He taught economic thought at the Academy, which gave him a certain amount of prestige. It was a good thing to be an educator in Libau. But among his responsibilities was also supervising the education of Martin and his siblings. Truth be told, none of the others required a tenth as much of his attention as Martin himself.

"Serra's fundamental is to sell more than you buy, Master. Which this Duchy does, and which it might still manage to do under Swedish or Russian rule. Under Sweden, Courland and Semigallia would be one more tax base and one more stretch of Baltic coastline. Investment in this Duchy such as my father has done would not make sense. Under Russia, Semigallia and Inflanty would become overland Russian trade routes and Courland Russia's port. This Duchy would draw investment. It would keep more of what it has become, even as the Tsar takes a cut for Moscow."

Walking with the master and his pupil was Martin's language teacher. He was only a few years older than Martin, and not much taller. His name was Njikobiya, which he said meant "I will not run" in his native language. German and Latvian tongues mangled his name to "Tchiko" or "Kobi" or "Anshikobi" on a good day. Martin had helped Njikobiya learn more German than anyone else, even as Njikobiya taught Martin the Bantu languages he knew.

Njikobiya was seeking to understand the ideas Master Zelig and Martin were expressing, since they were so animated.

Martin translated, roughly.
"Teacher asks me to think of the ideas of old men. The old men say sell more than you buy to be rich. I say we sell more than we buy today. We have big neighbours. Countries. One neighbour is Sweden. If Sweden takes our home, we sell less and buy more than today. One more neighbour is Russia. If Russia takes our home, we sell and buy like today, but Russia is rich instead of us."

Njikobiya nodded. "War. And after. Yes."

"My father wants to bring people who make us rich to Fernau and Tobago."

"Like war
captives? Slaves?"

"No. Leave home in Courland. Make new home in Tobago. No man is a slave in Courland. No 'war captives.'"
Martin turned to face Master Zelig again. "I understand how Serra applies. But before he sailed, my father said he intended to wait out this war behind our walls in Libau if our fleet can resupply Libau more than Sweden's army and navy can wear it down. Otherwise, Flekkerøy. What might Serra or Sir William Petty say about biding our time in Flekkerøy?"

"Presumably, that it remains an adequate place to reap the value our colonies have sown."

"Yes. Yes. But! We pay a cost to sow that value. Courland makes gunpowder. Iron. Cannon. Ships and sails. Grain. Glass and telescopes. Flekkerøy makes nothing. We would buy what we have profited from selling. When there is war, my father says maybe we go to an island. On the island we can not make what we make here."

"The island is poor while Courland is rich. And an island has no neighbour."

"Yes. And. Courland needs to be rich to keep making things. Making things helps Tobago and Gambia and Fernau make us rich.
Master Zelig, the smaller part of Serra is the value of things that aren't goods. The ability to make the goods. The ability to move them. The ability to sell them. That smaller part for Serra is the bigger part for Courland. My father offers serfs and peasants land in Tobago. Ships will need to defend Tobago. More ships will need to move sugar and more from Tobago to bring to Europe. Buying ships could risk that we buy more than we sell more. Flekkerøy can't fix that."

"What makes the island poor?"

"What makes the island poor, - Flekkerøy, that is," Martin waved toward Njikobiya, but spoke to Master Zelig, though slowly for Njikobiya's benefit, "is that it can not make things of value. It is too small to grow many things. It is too small to make many things. It is a place to buy things and store things and sell things."

Njikobiya said a word Martin did not understand, then tried in German: "where you keep seeds safe."

"A granary," said Master Zelig. "A fair analogy. A place we store Courland during its winter, while we wait for spring. I find no fault in that, Martin."

"I do not want the seed of all Courland patiently captive in a granary, waiting for a less bad future. The seed of Courland is for sowing, ever growing."

- - -

"Citizens of Libau, I am Martin Kettler, heir to Courland, Semigallia, Pilten, Tobago, Saint Helena, the Gambia, and Fernau. You know that one or more neighbours are invading our land. You know life will be different for us all, soon. My father has invited any man to come to our colonies. To have a new life there. To earn or buy land and hold it. If you are a serf, or a peasant, accept the offer. You will have a chance to be better off than you are here.

"If you are a farmer, or a herder, you may be a farmer or a herder in the colonies. The colonies will thank you.

"If you are a craftsman, or a master in a trade, I invite you to sail. We have made foundries, mills, and glassworks together. You have become makers of ships, telescopes, gunpowder, and cannons. If you are a master in these trades, bring them to our colonies and continue. We do not want your skills and knowledge serving our enemies.

"You may be a Lutheran, a Calvinist, a Jew, a Catholic, or a Muslim. You still know the story of Noah. The Earth was filled with violence. God promised a flood. He asked Noah to build an Ark of wood. He told Noah the design. He asked Noah to gather a male and female of every creature. Noah and his family sailed. Rain fell as never before. All that was flesh on Earth died. All save those who sailed with Noah. They survived. All life on earth since is descended from them. It is after the Ark that God said to "be fruitful and multiply" and made a covenant not to bring such a flood again.

"This is Courland's flood. In this harbour we have Courland's Ark. Come aboard, two by two of every trade - or more. What we have made will remain fruitful, and will multiply."
 
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Next-day thoughts, rather than rushing into part four of "The Fleet, the Flight" with inadequate preparation:

Allusions to Noah and his Ark will make a pretty good shared cultural identity.
They very well could. It would tie together fate, heritage, diversity, and seafaring, all deserving themes for this nation. And I'll admit the Noah reference wasn't something dancing in my head for months, but something that came to me only this week. Fitting, for culture.

Good to see lil' Marty taking a little hold of things, although correct it means that new information is coming, and the last time we got new information, the information was "The Russians are invading, too.", so, uh, it sounds ominous to me.

Lil' Marty was due for a spotlight. Let's show what the benefit of a GOAT-tier noble education for the era is on a precocious, avid learner who just might be on the autism spectrum.

Writer-wise, I feel I didn't quite convey all I wanted in the conversation between Martin, Zelig, and Njikobiya, or didn't convey things with as much clarity as I'd hoped. I'll chalk most of it up to my personal lack of depth in economics knowledge. The contrast between the level at which Martin demonstrated his knowledge with Zelig and the level at which he was able to convey it - linguistically and culturally - to Njikobiya didn't pop quite as I'd hoped. There is a chance I will one day come back to rewrite this passage, but I won't let that hold me back from advancing the story in the meantime. I have my own experience fumbling in various languages to draw upon, but not nuanced subject-matter expertise.

Still, the bit that's clear enough for me to be happy with: Jakob proposes to continue managing the colonial enterprise from Flekkerøy, without the resources and people residing within Courland and Semigallia. Martin feels there is reason to disagree, with some balance of youthful will and capacity-centred economic reasoning. Pity his ability to communicate it is limited by mine. 😏

Before the next chapter, I must understand a little better what spectrum exists for the killing of 17th-century nobles, from cold murder to death in battle.
 
Interesting series of updates. Look forward to seeing the Duchess, too, to round out the family.

It just occurred to me, will the classically minded compare the Courlanders to the Aeneid? Will TTL’s Dune or BSG draw on this for inspiration?
I must understand a little better what spectrum exists for the killing of 17th-century nobles, from cold murder to death in battle
That sounds… ominous, especially for the Duke. 😱
 
Interesting series of updates. Look forward to seeing the Duchess, too, to round out the family.
The Duchess is now a week or two from peak roundness. Under normal circumstances, she can then expect to become dramatically less round in a matter of hours.

It just occurred to me, will the classically minded compare the Courlanders to the Aeneid? Will TTL’s Dune or BSG draw on this for inspiration?
If this were Reddit, I'd hit !RemindMe 2 years and clear my brain of considering such questions until a more appropriate time. Either way, that would be a postscript, should I ever get to one. Without knowing the specific year, this timeline's final chapter - the one after which some boundary between "this story" and "some other story" is crossed - is less than a century away.

That sounds… ominous, especially for the Duke. 😱

I seem to have formed the habit of painting myself some guardrails in my storytelling. I don't force the story to go a particular way by severely constraining myself, but I insert details that demand to be used later on. Most often, I do so without fully deciding in what way I will use them. Then, some later chapter picks them up when I think "hey, that could be drawn back in here...." The "Gambian Semaphores" turning into a different system in Courland than they were in Gambia, both in complexity but in terms of removing fire from the equation was one such example. Maybe the ideas layer over top of one another in a less forced manner if the end use isn't already decided in advance.

As for the Duke:
I must understand a little better what spectrum exists for the killing of 17th-century nobles, from cold murder to death in battle.
Jakob Kettler would never again be both in his homeland and out of sight of the sea.
A third clue feels like it might be too much of a deep cut, so I won't highlight it before it comes up in the main story.

I must say, though, Wikipedia pages on 17th-century political assassinations are among the more interesting Wikipedia pages out there. Good thing I don't need to go into great depth here for this story's needs.
 
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